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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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It just seems a bit over the top to even mention it. I had my students learning about it a few months ago when they were studying gliders.

Most of us are not as dumb as some think. My wife totally understood it and she could care less. Isn't education what we want? Sometimes it's hyped but believe me people learn. I know personally more people than I ever thought asked me what the Euro showed for the last storm.
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Most of us are not as dumb as some think. My wife totally understood it and she could care less. Isn't education what we want? Sometimes it's hyped but believe me people learn. I know personally more people than I ever thought asked me what the Euro showed for the last storm.

Walk around a local Walmart and explain to them what the 850s look like.

That should work

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Why do Mets get upset when the MSM uses technical terms

Granted Al Roker is a joke but I have seen it time and time again, it's like they have these little silos they try to protect. It's not that much of a rocket science to explain the polar vortex correctly which I did hear and see several times today, Al Roker aside.

I don't think you get it.

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I thought the news was great today, awesome pics, stories of pure winter, been a decade since we had such an outbreak. Not seeing as it as hype either doesn't get any colder than what happened in the upper Midwest with the winds, also like the fact people are so into weather and Mets should be too, more demand for their services.

 

The people complaining about the hype are in front of their computers in a warm room.  I've got friends sleeping in airports, customers that are stuck halfway around the country etc.  It's a mess out there.  This weather is having real and significant impact on people and the economy.

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The people complaining about the hype are in front of their computers in a warm room. I've got friends sleeping in airports, customers that are stuck halfway around the country etc. It's a mess out there. This weather is having real and significant impact on people and the economy.

Trust me, it's not all weather related.

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Walk around a local Walmart and explain to them what the 850s look like.

That should work

probably quite a few, stereotypes of people? High school teacher? C'mon Dave everyone stops in Walmart, don't tell me you don't either. Never underestimate the learning power of people. I mean it's not all rocket science, some things like what the PV is can be reduced to understandable terms? I am sure you do it daily. We are not talking physics or calculus or complex formulas here. Before any one posts anything about grouchy, moody, etc blah blah, this is just discussion
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The people complaining about the hype are in front of their computers in a warm room. I've got friends sleeping in airports, customers that are stuck halfway around the country etc. It's a mess out there. This weather is having real and significant impact on people and the economy.

Exactly, well needed hype, sometimes it is necessary.
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I think it is over the top...but the media is over the top with a lot of weather-related stories these days...esp the national outlets. A lot of it is probably that there are so many outlets for news now versus 20 years ago that you hear it all the time and probably some extra competition leads to more hype.

 

The cold shot itself is certainly extremely impressive in the midwest...coldest in 20 years.

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I think it is over the top...but the media is over the top with a lot of weather-related stories these days...esp the national outlets. A lot of it is probably that there are so many outlets for news now versus 20 years ago that you hear it all the time and probably some extra competition leads to more hype.

The cold shot itself is certainly extremely impressive in the midwest...coldest in 20 years.

everything is over the top from sports to war to weather, just saying it was not unwarranted to get the word out in the Midwest and nothing wrong with polar vortex becoming a common term.
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probably quite a few, stereotypes of people? High school teacher? C'mon Dave everyone stops in Walmart, don't tell me you don't either. Never underestimate the learning power of people. I mean it's not all rocket science, some things like what the PV is can be reduced to understandable terms? I am sure you do it daily. We are not talking physics or calculus or complex formulas here. Before any one posts anything about grouchy, moody, etc blah blah, this is just discussion

OT but I've never set foot inside a Walmart, I have a perfect record to maintain!

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OT but I've never set foot inside a Walmart, I have a perfect record to maintain!

Lol I remembered that after I posted it, lol Will said coldest in 20 years, Kulaginman said coldest Buffalo LES in twenty years, and they say you were off base using Leon for the period we just went through. I understood exactly what you were generalizing and give you great props for sticking with it through some great derision.
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we are living in a 24hr news cycle with fingertip access. its not so much hyping as it is being in our faces way more often phones, pads, mini laptops, mini tvs, big laptops, big tvs....twitter, fb, instagram, and on and on.... when you get home for some piece and quiet, your wife or gf are on fb seeing their news reel updating in real time while watching twitter feeds spread like the aids virus in Africa.... eventually, everyone is affected....even if you dont want to be. you cant turn away.

 

the old days, one would have to find what they are looking for. TWC for weather, BBC for news, ESPN for sports, etc....nowadays, it comes to you!

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Well, at least they didn't try bringing the NAO into the discussions.

:lmao:

its on the local weather all the time. I give Brad Field the chief met at Ryans station big props for introducing non standard terms. I mean isn't it better than hearing the temp in every town in your state like some do?
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we are living in a 24hr news cycle with fingertip access. its not so much hyping as it is being in our faces way more often phones, pads, mini laptops, mini tvs, big laptops, big tvs....twitter, fb, instagram, and on and on.... when you get home for some piece and quiet, your wife or gf are on fb seeing their news reel updating in real time while watching twitter feeds spread like the aids virus in Africa.... eventually, everyone is affected....even if you dont want to be. you cant turn away.

the old days, one would have to find what they are looking for. TWC for weather, BBC for news, ESPN for sports, etc....nowadays, it comes to you!

true which leads to some saying it's overhyped when in fact they have too many ways to get news.
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sure......hype has a way of surfacing to the top...and its only going to get worse the more we advance in tech. but the hype was always there lol.

more sources competing too, I remember the Blizz of 93 hype, the missed hurricanes of the 70s were probably the worst ill informed hyped events I can remember
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Lol I remembered that after I posted it, lol Will said coldest in 20 years, Kulaginman said coldest Buffalo LES in twenty years, and they say you were off base using Leon for the period we just went through. I understood exactly what you were generalizing and give you great props for sticking with it through some great derision.

 

 

This period upcoming is something we didn't see in Jan 1994....the warm spells that month were all very brief in cutters.

 

 

But we did get a very similar pattern to Jan '94 to start the month, there is no doubt about that. The EPO ridging was almost a dead ringer. How the pattern reloads in the next 10-14 days will probably determine if we go on to have another memorable stretch (and likely a memorable winter) or if this winter only is characterized by short durations of winter interrupted every 5-8 days by warmer interludes.

 

The analogs are mixed but favoring the colder/snowy return ofwinter at this time. This matches the analogs early in January...all which showed Januarys averaging significantly below average in the CONUS...and the analogs that had mild spells all returned to colder weather. So I see no reason to stray from this concept...especially with the EC ensembles becoming more robust each run with the EPO ridging out on the N PAC.

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This period upcoming is something we didn't see in Jan 1994....the warm spells that month were all very brief in cutters.

But we did get a very similar pattern to Jan '94 to start the month, there is no doubt about that. The EPO ridging was almost a dead ringer. How the pattern reloads in the next 10-14 days will probably determine if we go on to have another memorable stretch (and likely a memorable winter) or if this winter only is characterized by short durations of winter interrupted every 5-8 days by warmer interludes.

The analogs are mixed but favoring the colder/snowy return ofwinter at this time. This matches the analogs early in January...all which showed Januarys averaging significantly below average in the CONUS...and the analogs that had mild spells all returned to colder weather. So I see no reason to stray from this concept...especially with the EC ensembles becoming more robust each run with the EPO ridging out on the N PAC.

like, of course I am sure Jerry will be the first to agree, analogs are far from perfect matches but have similar events happening, such as the Grinch storm, the coastal which hammered Ema heavier than the rest of NE, the Arctic outbreaks,epic cold LES. I agree with you, let's see where this upcoming pattern brings us. On a whole great job of recognition by Jerry.
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probably quite a few, stereotypes of people? High school teacher? C'mon Dave everyone stops in Walmart, don't tell me you don't either. Never underestimate the learning power of people. I mean it's not all rocket science, some things like what the PV is can be reduced to understandable terms? I am sure you do it daily. We are not talking physics or calculus or complex formulas here. Before any one posts anything about grouchy, moody, etc blah blah, this is just discussion

I remember Paul Kocin back in TWC days came on during his winter weather expert timeslot for an event and said, "these two storms, one in the north and one in the south....will most likely come together, join hands, and dance. We call this dance, phasing."

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Trust me, it's not all weather related.

My neighbor is a pilot and another is an attendant. The weather started the delays but new FAA regulations that went into effect 1/1 compounded the problem. It's a mess and it won't be clearing up as fast as people are expecting because they can't get planes and crews back into position because of the regs.

But the weather hype this time is fine. Now kids not having school because it will be 20 degrees.....that codling of society is getting ridiculous.

Scott I would argue we are part of the hype. I would bet a toe or two if Mother Nature busted out the ruler 14-15" didn't occur within 10 miles of here nor did 17 in Plymouth yet I saw a national report of "almost 20" of snow on Plymouth Rock!!" It's all nonsense. We had a snowstorm with minimal infrastructure impact and the media was going 24/7. Big ratings among the over caffeinated nervous nelly crowds.

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