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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Hey guys, never post here but I like reading the disco. Curious to your thoughts about the lr in the ma. Looks miller b'ish to me but maybe a bit more of a southern storm track than the last couple -epo periods. I'm not sure about split flow possibilities but I suppose the bagginess in mx and under the pna ridge would at least leave the door open.

 

We usually suck it down here in the ma with a miller b pattern and hostile atlantic but the weenie glasses I've been wearing sees some potential with the pna ridge. Am I out to lunch? If so, I'll take my ball and go home. 

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All I have looked at is the 12z GFS and the future looks like garbage. Oh well, I summon Will and Scott to find some kind of model happiness lol

 

 

Well if you are looking at OP runs fo the GFS...all you have to do is wait until 18z or 00z and I'm sure you'll find happiness.

 

 

Stick to ensembles in the long range.

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Nothing better than closing the shades for 10-14 days of prime time winter

I know lol. It sucks..... But I can't control it so in trying not to be overly worked up about it.

The attitude on here is going to go south quick even if this isn't long term.

Your right, this is the heart of winter, and it's a real crap shoot for the foreseeable future

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I know lol. It sucks..... But I can't control it so in trying not to be overly worked up about it.

The attitude on here is going to go south quick even if this isn't long term.

Your right, this is the heart of winter, and it's a real crap shoot for the foreseeable future

 

 

This is your first winter here...things will be fine on here. We all survived 2011-2012.

 

There were some mild meltdowns in January of last year when we told people to be patient...then it stopped once February happened.

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Hey guys, never post here but I like reading the disco. Curious to your thoughts about the lr in the ma. Looks miller b'ish to me but maybe a bit more of a southern storm track than the last couple -epo periods. I'm not sure about split flow possibilities but I suppose the bagginess in mx and under the pna ridge would at least leave the door open.

We usually suck it down here in the ma with a miller b pattern and hostile atlantic but the weenie glasses I've been wearing sees some potential with the pna ridge. Am I out to lunch? If so, I'll take my ball and go home.

I think you nailed it. The upcoming pattern has that spread the wealth look.
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This is your first winter here...things will be fine on here. We all survived 2011-2012.

There were some mild meltdowns in January of last year when we told people to be patient...then it stopped once February happened.

guess it's time for a pep talk again at Funky, hopefully Pickles goes, this time the bet will involve alcohol or maybe a ski ticket
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guess it's time for a pep talk again at Funky, hopefully Pickles goes, this time the bet will involve alcohol or maybe a ski ticket

 

 

We had a good mini-GTG on 12/23...a good talk about the great upcoming pattern in early January. It certainly delievered. We couldn't see the mild pattern yet for mid-January at that point.

 

Now we can see the return to -EPO conditions which should give us good cold to work with. The +PNA will be nice too...maybe we can sneak a Miller B in there.

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Can a met(s) kind of give a brief synopsis of

1) how warm can/will it get over the next 10 days starting Saturday

2) Is it cool down on the 15th..then torch again..then setup cold/snow chances again after the 18-20th..or sooner?

 

 

1. It could get well into the 50s if things break right on the weekend. It might not be that warm either...all depends on if we get a good mixing SW flow in the boundary layer. Guidance is beginning to lean this direction for Saturday.

 

2. Cooldown starts around the 15th-16th, but it could be a cutter that ushers in the cold stuff for the 1/18 and beyond. Although the Euro was trying for an anafrontal deal around the 15th...we actually saw that last January almost to the day. (think it was 1/16 last year) Way too early to tell how the cold finally comes in though.

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This is your first winter here...things will be fine on here. We all survived 2011-2012.

There were some mild meltdowns in January of last year when we told people to be patient...then it stopped once February happened.

True, February cured all lol.

If we go back to the strong - epo, I would think we would at least go back to the pattern we have had, hopefully even a bit better

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1. It could get well into the 50s if things break right on the weekend. It might not be that warm either...all depends on if we get a good mixing SW flow in the boundary layer. Guidance is beginning to lean this direction for Saturday.

2. Cooldown starts around the 15th-16th, but it could be a cutter that ushers in the cold stuff for the 1/18 and beyond. Although the Euro was trying for an anafrontal deal around the 15th...we actually saw that last January almost to the day. (think it was 1/16 last year) Way too early to tell how the cold finally comes in though.

Ok thanks for the breakdown. I've got my wits back about me, and will be ready for winters return in about 12 days. Seems like an eternity, but we'll get there
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Ok thanks for the breakdown. I've got my wits back about me, and will be ready for winters return in about 12 days. Seems like an eternity, but we'll get there15-6 =12? throw away 3 days of below freezing maybe some squalls and WAA snow and there ya go, 5-6 days of 40's, meh

I get where he's going though. We're getting cold and dry it seems followed by the January thaw.

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