Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The NAM has been showing potential for some snow showers too tomorrow night. We get some decent lapse rates in the LLS and PVA to try and sustain them, but there's no true instability like in typical WINDEX events since the inversion is pretty low around 800mb, so it would likely remain scattered. Kind of like the November snow showers we had that gave a some people coatings and an isolated inch in a lucky spot or two.yeah seems that way, NAM had a pretty intense band from the Berks to ORH. TTs are very low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 yeah seems that way, NAM had a pretty intense band from the Berks to ORH. TTs are very low though Yeah the inversion is very low and sharp (aiding in the low TTs), so you aren't going to see more than a few localized snow showers...and most of them won't be heavy outside of the upslope spots. Maybe a few lucky isolated spots get a burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 80% of the next 10-14 days AOA. Thereafter, back to Leon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Seems like we could have some SHSN traverse the area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 80% of the next 10-14 days AOA. Thereafter, back to Leon. That's a helluva long January thaw.......snow pack ftl. Seems like we could have some SHSN traverse the area tonight. Forecast for here is up to an inch today (I imagine back end, but I'm not confident that'll work out) and then 40% chance of snow showers tonight with no accumulation mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 That's a helluva long January thaw.......snow pack ftl. Forecast for here is up to an inch today (I imagine back end, but I'm not confident that'll work out) and then 40% chance of snow showers tonight with no accumulation mentioned. Well I think the real thaw is next week and I'm probably over generous with the duration as signs are abundant that we freeze later January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Time to hit the snooze button for a while. Mild times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I thought today was the thaw? Or maybe that was just wishful thinking. Lots of 50s this morning. Snow depth: 0.0. Was a little surprised this morning, guess it got a lot warmer than forecast overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Well I think the real thaw is next week and I'm probably over generous with the duration as signs are abundant that we freeze later January. We will have a real mild period I think before the first cool shot. CONUS wide thaw. Early next week looks like a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 We will have a real mild period I think before the first cool shot. CONUS wide thaw. Early next week looks like a furnace. What happened to the n plains staying cold..and us just being in the low 40's for a few days with maybe 1 cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 What happened to the n plains staying cold..and us just being in the low 40's for a few days with maybe 1 cutter? No the Plains are expected to get mild for a brief time. I think a few of our days may be in the 40s, but as I said to you a couple of days ago, the real mild weather will be before that cutter. If the euro ensembles are right, it gets near 60 before we cool down. But I like the pattern after that...looks more like a +PNA. After being in the freezer, the nrn Plains could turn mild if that happens as the cold stays more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 ...Good week to be at the lake. LES, FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 80% of the next 10-14 days AOA. Thereafter, back to Leon. Well, looks to me like we're back business by 1/14 at which time the severe slaughter is in our rearview mirror, based on the Goofus at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 No the Plains are expected to get mild for a brief time. I think a few of our days may be in the 40s, but as I said to you a couple of days ago, the real mild weather will be before that cutter. If the euro ensembles are right, it gets near 60 before we cool down. But I like the pattern after that...looks more like a +PNA. After being in the freezer, the nrn Plains could turn mild if that happens as the cold stays more east. Well we're near 60 now..so I guess it can't get any worse. What date are we looking at? You think 15th or not till after the 18th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Well we're near 60 now..so I guess it can't get any worse. What date are we looking at? You think 15th or not till after the 18th? It looks like after the 15th is when the 1st shot comes in, but the meaningful stuff might wait until the 18th and beyond. This is sort of what happens when the PV drops into the US and lifts out. After the big freeze is the bog torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 It looks like after the 15th is when the 1st shot comes in, but the meaningful stuff might wait until the 18th and beyond. This is sort of what happens when the PV drops into the US and lifts out. After the big freeze is the bog torch. Euro ens look really good for after mid-month. They have the EPO reloading around the 15th, so I think by the 18-20th we should be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro ens look really good for after mid-month. They have the EPO reloading around the 15th, so I think by the 18-20th we should be in good shape. They look terrific. Might be more +PNA for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 They look terrific. Might be more +PNA for once. Would one of you guys mind doing a write up on all of this terminology? We've got a week or more of downtime. I think it'd help a lot of the newer people and I'd Leon the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Would one of you guys mind doing a write up on all of this terminology? We've got a week or more of downtime. I think it'd help a lot of the newer people and I'd Leon the explanation. A +PNA? I think most know what that is. Basically ridging over the West Coast and Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Does EPO and PNA relate to one another? If there is a massive ridge in the eastern pacific, i would think that would lead to a trough over AK and western Canada. So A +EPO would generally lead to a -PNA, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Does EPO and PNA relate to one another? If there is a massive ridge in the eastern pacific, i would think that would lead to a trough over AK and western Canada. So A +EPO would generally lead to a -PNA, correct? No, there is an overlap in the regions. You can get a -EPO/+PNA combo...esp when the EPO is more east based into eastern AK and NW Canada. That is basically what the Euro ensembles are showing. This is the loading pattern for the EPO (positive phase)...you can see that is is almost PNA neutral (heights SW of Aleutions are near neutral and the interior western Canada heights are near neutral to perhaps just a smidge correlated to EPO). For the negative EPO, just imagine the negative height anomalies on the map above are positive height anomalies...and vice versa for the positive height anomalies. If you shift the EPO ridge slightly east, you can see how it would teleconnect to a massive PNA ridge...OTOH if you shift it a tad west, you can see how a negative PNA could be supported (something we saw for a time in middle December). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 BTW, the Euro ensembles basically took the GEFS out to the woodshed for this warmup in store before the reload...the EC ensembles had struggled a bit in parts of December with the EPO ridging, but they nailed it pretty good this time to get their mojo back. I was hoping they were wrong since the GEFS showed not much relaxation at all. But revision to the mean was inevitible for each model suite. At least things look to get quite wintry again after mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 BTW, the Euro ensembles basically took the GEFS out to the woodshed for this warmup in store before the reload...the EC ensembles had struggled a bit in parts of December with the EPO ridging, but they nailed it pretty good this time to get their mojo back. I was hoping they were wrong since the GEFS showed not much relaxation at all. But revision to the mean was inevitible for each model suite. At least things look to get quite wintry again after mid-month. Yeah I mentioned that a few days ago. I was hoping they would be wrong, but they absolutely nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Thank you. Makes sense. Also, It would be a little easier if EPO were signaled the same as NAO, instead of being flipped. But they probably didnt concern themselves with making a "met for dummies" booklet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 It's gone, gone like yesterday, gone like a soldier in the Civil War, gone like a freight train, it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 There's also apparently a seasonal dependence on the correlation between the EPO and PNA. It's bit more robust in autumn, with +.14 and +.20 positive correlation during Nov and Dec respectively. But the correlation falls off to +.05 in Jan/Feb, which means very near equal chance for concurrent negative or positive phases of those indices. That's interesting because one might think the opposite to be a better fit for having [typically] shorter wave-lengths in autumn, but it is what it is... ****** I wouldn't hit the "warm-up" too hard folks. Just moo but I still see this as a cold relaxation due to the loss of the predominating -WPO/-EPO influence on N/A. Obviously relaxing the cold is warming things up a bit, but just how much is going to depend upon noise in the L/W jostle as the period unfolds, and whether a surface high happens to retreat when there happens to be a balmier 850mb temperature air mass available to the circulation. Right now, you have the Euro showing a snow pack eater pattern with perhaps one cold insert period days 6-10, which could very well be typical meridional bias of the extended Euro tainting truth and over-doing that. Contrasting, the GFS has less impactful warming, and actually more of a transitional type pattern that could even offer a winter storm or two over the next couple of weeks. Personally I still see this a return to normalcy with some tendency to be above normal; which for our latitude can still mean wintry like events. I am also interested in testing this EC ensemble notion of re-establishing the -EPO mid-month. The GEF mean has the PNA more than less rising through the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro ensmebles continue to look very favorable for a -EPO/+PNA combo reload. This pushes the coldest air a bit further east that what we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro ensmebles continue to look very favorable for a -EPO/+PNA combo reload. This pushes the coldest air a bit further east that what we have seen. same timeframe? Post Jan 15th give or take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Man I like that EC look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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