Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Highways are horrible spots to

Judge.

 

 

Sometimes along highways it will be bare and you'll have wall to wall snowpack 6"+ on both sides of a neighborhood street. Snowpack is not an easy metric to broadbrush because there are a lot of differences over short distances...especially as the snowpack ages. So many times when I'm looking at an aged deeper snow pack in March, I'll find that in northern ORH near the Holden border, we can have 14-16" of solid high water content pack and 100% cover only to find along highway 290 further south near the southern areas going toward Auburn to have bare spots on the side of the highway that gets afternoon sun. Then I'll hear someone comment "I drove through Worcester today on 290 and there wasn't that much snow" and I'll be thinking "if you drove off the highway a mile, it looks totally different".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sometimes along highways it will be bare and you'll have wall to wall snowpack 6"+ on both sides of a neighborhood street. Snowpack is not an easy metric to broadbrush because there are a lot of differences over short distances...especially as the snowpack ages. So many times when I'm looking at an aged deeper snow pack in March, I'll find that in northern ORH near the Holden border, we can have 14-16" of solid high water content pack and 100% cover only to find along highway 290 further south near the southern areas going toward Auburn to have bare spots on the side of the highway that gets afternoon sun. Then I'll hear someone comment "I drove through Worcester today on 290 and there wasn't that much snow" and I'll be thinking "if you drove off the highway a mile, it looks totally different".

 

I know....people have to realize how variable snowpack can be and where a true area is to judge actual depth. Highways are not one of them...lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Think about all the salt and dirt spray that contaminates the snowpack near a highway.  The same gunk you get on your windshield all winter.

 

 

Yeah it definitely lowers the albedo of the snow and it melts up to like 10x faster when it gets dirty like that. And a relatively small amount of dirt can really speed up the melting process...so even if the snow still "looks" fairly white along the highway in the median, it is probably already dirty enough to melt significantly faster than snow you see along residential and rural roads.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Highways are horrible spots to

Judge.

I was in the deep woods back by borderland. Even the lower map is too high. Based on bobs comments the estimates are too high there as well.

Most of the snow will be long gone here by lunch Monday. Different ball game for you.

I would say bay road up through Easton to Sharon is 5-6 just like bob said.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Think about all the salt and dirt spray that contaminates the snowpack near a highway. The same gunk you get on your windshield all winter.

Driving up 93 this morning there was a dust cloud of salt residue over the highway. Could see it for a mile or 2 ahead around kcon under the inversion. Theres always some after a storm but it was as noticible as I've ever seen it. Pretty nasty.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was in the deep woods back by borderland. Even the lower map is too high. Based on bobs comments the estimates are too high there as well.

Most of the snow will be long gone here by lunch Monday. Different ball game for you.

I would say bay road up through Easton to Sharon is 5-6 just like bob said.

 

Well 8-10 might be down to 5-6 there. But, with you getting more snow, I find it hard to believe you have a few inches left.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How can anyone in Vermont be complaining about this winter? I mean it's been cold , snowy and icy. No grass seen since early Dec. where do I sign up?

It's all relative.

You know if you or Ginxy got 50-60% of normal December snowfall you guys wouldn't be singing the same tune. Add in a couple rainers, it's not rocket science. Higher elevation snowpack is the same it was on December 10th.

Just an epic epic December and with no huge gains looking likely, we'll continue to fall behind. I hope this awesome pattern continues that we've been in for the past three weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So Scott, what do you think we get for the Thursday into Saturday precip or low?  Is the GFS correct or is the EURO?

 

Wow like I know? LOL. I think something is in the cards, but it could be a measily 1-2 for the interior and rain for SE MA and the Cape, or perhaps a little more even down towards Cape Cod. I feel like the cold will be there for at least part of the deal even there...but this could be a real strung out mess with little moisture. It's too early to say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully you can break your personal cold record.

Your better winters are cold on a composite...I can show you the average temps again, but hopefully you already remember them. But all cold patterns are not the same. Sometimes you smoke cirrus and othertimes you get snow for days on end.

It would be interesting to plot composites comparable to this Dec and see what years might be similar and how much snow fell at BTV and MMNV1.

I feel like there's a tipping point when the negative anomalies get too large that snowfall would drop...like maybe our big winters are at -2F, but by like -4F or -5F the dry cold overwhelms snowfall. Similar to a warm pattern that promotes wetness, and snowfall increases at like +1 or +2 but falls off a cliff between +3 and +4 because then it's just all rainstorms.

I know there are so many variables involved, but those relationships between temps and snow or precip fascinate me to some extent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well not every winter is snowy though PF.

Look at it this way. If I can keep my cool through 10/11-1/13...you can survive too.

Yeah that's very true, haha. Probably just need some time away from the board...like 90% of you guys are above average and are having a heck of a start. Its one of those things where everyone is saying its epic and a winter for the ages, and I'm sitting here thinking it's not horrible but I certainly would love to roll the dice on another pattern at this point.

On the flip side if it were warm and 60% snowfall, I'd probably really lose it like Blizz on a 59-degree July afternoon.

I hate that I've come from 200ft in the Hudson Valley south of ALB and am getting jaded up here. If I had no idea what "normal" was, this would be a fine winter so far, lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah that's very true, haha. Probably just need some time away from the board...like 90% of you guys are above average and are having a heck of a start. Its one of those things where everyone is saying its epic and a winter for the ages, and I'm sitting here thinking it's not horrible but I certainly would love to roll the dice on another pattern at this point.

On the flip side if it were warm and 60% snowfall, I'd probably really lose it like Blizz on a 59-degree July afternoon.

I hate that I've come from 200ft in the Hudson Valley south of ALB and am getting jaded up here. If I had no idea what "normal" was, this would be a fine winter so far, lol.

 

Well there is only 1 or 2 claiming it's epic and one for the ages. No offense to them, but it's too early for that so don't read into that too much. I think you will catch up at some point. Just my gut.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...