Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 do you think its reasonable if we lose a favorable epo, that we might gain a favorable nao? sort of...a balancing of the atmosphere..? There is a +.3 correlation coefficients between the EPO and NAO during December, but that decays to +.15 in January, and actually becomes nearly 0.0 (N/S) in February. It does however return to +.28 in March -- it may be that February has an error in the data set, because that is suspicious. A positive correlation pattern such as this would suggest that the two indices tend to move together (but not all the time...). If Feb is legit, it would suggest during the beginning of the cold season(s) this is more true, and that they become nearly disconnected (for whatever hemispheric physical reasons...) as the cold season ages. Why March is returns to a better positive correlation is troubling... The simple answer to your question is no, I don't think when using these linear statistical comparisons there is any proxy on controlling a -NAO because of +EPO. In fact, somewhat opposite would be true. I am not currently predicting either index mode. This is just reasoning from the correlation matrix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Lol. Welcome to 200 posts ago. Lol. Welcome to things needing to be re-iterated once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 so what you are saying there is going to be a thaw. It's one of the possibilities ... I don't see any direct evidence of one in the models, but I do see a unilaterally agreed upon picture of a disappearance of the negative 850 mb cold mass, without an apparent refit. Whether people want to see the EPO through filters of optimism, not withstanding whether they may in fact be correct in that assessment, from where I am sitting, we are losing the ability to load into Canada (though cold growth can occur there for other reasons), and that is a new paradigm over what we have seen. Again... this is like a 7 to 10 day relaxation imo -- I am not canceling winter. As I also outlined, there are reasons to suspect when winter returns in better definition it may also come in a different format. More +PNA/-AO well beyond ... Until then .. .yeah, if a thaw happened, ...as in, bear ground and some mud for a stint, wouldn't shock me either. It's a 50/50 pattern during the interim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 TIp it's coming back. In fact, it almost looks better than what we've had.When it looks warm he looks for why he thinks it will be cold. When it looks cold he looks for reasons why he thinks it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It looks like in the LR its going to get connected with the PNA ridge...so it will be a really cold pattern if that can happen. The EPO block never really goes away, it kind of retrogrades toward siberia and rots for a bit, before it reconnects with the next round of ridging into AK.its been fun watching the PV rotate around Canada since November, it goes a bit further NW so we thaw but it comes back down with vengeance. Great winter continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It looks like in the LR its going to get connected with the PNA ridge...so it will be a really cold pattern if that can happen. The EPO block never really goes away, it kind of retrogrades toward siberia and rots for a bit, before it reconnects with the next round of ridging into AK. Lovely. That pattern may get to me if its dry and -25F while Philly shovels, lol. This winter is slowly cementing my hatred for big cold anomalies during the winter.... anecdotally I always thought below normal temp months were rough snowfall months and this winter isn't helping that opinion. But you guys are far enough south that below normal temps can translate to above normal snow, especially the coastal plain and deep south (Ginxy to Jerry corridor). I can see why those guys are pumped. If we do get *that* cold, hopefully I can at least pull a personal record and hit -30F or something, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's one of the possibilities ... I don't see any direct evidence of one in the models, but I do see a unilaterally agreed upon picture of a disappearance of the negative 850 mb cold mass, without an apparent refit. Whether people want to see the EPO through filters of optimism, not withstanding whether they may in fact be correct in that assessment, from where I am sitting, we are losing the ability to load into Canada (though cold growth can occur there for other reasons), and that is a new paradigm over what we have seen. Again... this is like a 7 to 10 day relaxation imo -- I am not canceling winter. As I also outlined, there are reasons to suspect when winter returns in better definition it may also come in a different format. More +PNA/-AO well beyond ... Until then .. .yeah, if a thaw happened, ...as in, bear ground and some mud for a stint, wouldn't shock me either. It's a 50/50 pattern during the interim. A thaw does not have to mean it's bare muddy ground everywhere, it's as described upcoming above normal for 3-5 day's then back to the regularly scheduled program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Lovely. That pattern may get to me if its dry and -25F while Philly shovels, lol. This winter is slowly cementing my hatred for big cold anomalies during the winter.... anecdotally I always thought below normal temp months were rough snowfall months and this winter isn't helping that opinion. But you guys are far enough south that below normal temps can translate to above normal snow, especially the coastal plain and deep south (Ginxy to Jerry corridor). I can see why those guys are pumped. If we do get *that* cold, hopefully I can at least pull a personal record and hit -30F or something, lol. what after you get days of upslope, 3-5 synoptic Friday then a foot Tuesday, yes we feel bad for you, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Lovely. That pattern may get to me if its dry and -25F while Philly shovels, lol. This winter is slowly cementing my hatred for big cold anomalies during the winter.... anecdotally I always thought below normal temp months were rough snowfall months and this winter isn't helping that opinion. But you guys are far enough south that below normal temps can translate to above normal snow, especially the coastal plain and deep south (Ginxy to Jerry corridor). I can see why those guys are pumped. If we do get *that* cold, hopefully I can at least pull a personal record and hit -30F or something, lol. Hopefully you can break your personal cold record. Your better winters are cold on a composite...I can show you the average temps again, but hopefully you already remember them. But all cold patterns are not the same. Sometimes you smoke cirrus and othertimes you get snow for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 A thaw does not have to mean it's bare muddy ground everywhere, it's as described upcoming above normal for 3-5 day's then back to the regularly scheduled program. True and actually ... the correlation is the 20-25th of January ... so ha! Guess for winter weather enthusiasts it's a boning at any other dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It looks like in the LR its going to get connected with the PNA ridge...so it will be a really cold pattern if that can happen. The EPO block never really goes away, it kind of retrogrades toward siberia and rots for a bit, before it reconnects with the next round of ridging into AK. Yeah agreed. Obviously I am just speaking as modeled, but the pattern as modeled looks like miller B city which is why I thought it may be better if they are correct. Hopefully they hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 How can anyone in Vermont be complaining about this winter? I mean it's been cold , snowy and icy. No grass seen since early Dec. where do I sign up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 How can anyone in Vermont be complaining about this winter? I mean it's been cold , snowy and icy. No grass seen since early Dec. where do I sign up?spoiled, same thing every year, historically Jan is the dryest month, long long winter left up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 How can anyone in Vermont be complaining about this winter? I mean it's been cold , snowy and icy. No grass seen since early Dec. where do I sign up? no complaints, but getting decent snows really helps people through the winter- i.e. it gets people out of the house. Bitter cold and overcast doesn't help us much. Here in the Champlain Valley, we've been watching nickel/dime events, while areas south and east get the snow- good for them and all, but it's not exactly great when your accustomed recreation/exercise is inhibited by lack of snow- and the winter is long up here- shorter days with less sunlight/more overcast- well, people can get down about it. Long winters affect the psyche in both ways- and long doesn't always mean it's a winter wonderland out there! then again, nordic skiing only takes a few inches of packed snow... so that's where I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 no complaints, but getting decent snows really helps people through the winter- i.e. it gets people out of the house. Bitter cold and overcast doesn't help us much. Here in the Champlain Valley, we've been watching nickel/dime events, while areas south and east get the snow- good for them and all, but it's not exactly great when your accustomed recreation/exercise is inhibited by lack of snow- and the winter is long up here- shorter days with less sunlight/more overcast- well, people can get down about it. Long winters affect the psyche in both ways- and long doesn't always mean it's a winter wonderland out there! then again, nordic skiing only takes a few inches of packed snow... so that's where I go. Looks like a very small area of VT has 4-6 OTG while the rest of the state looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 That's the worst snow depth map to use. Use the NOHRSC map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Looks like a very small area of VT has 4-6 OTG while the rest of the state looks good. Congrats maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Looks like a very small area of VT has 4-6 OTG while the rest of the state looks good. 4-6" is here in the valley where I live- and after being in the mountains today and yesterday, I can tell you that most places in northern VT have a foot or less on the ground save for the high elevations above 1500-2000ft (even then, not much given deadfall/rocks). But that map shows it- and it shows limited winter recreation up here (basically, ski resorts with snowmaking will be ok during a thaw, but nowhere else). Some people are fine with any snow on the ground- but it doesn't cut it. What's currently progged in the forecast will put a lot of folks on hold, once again, until the snowpack can recover. If a bad stretch like this continues for a while, ski/snowmobile trails will close, and people may stop coming- which is bad for business. It's not as simple as just having some snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 That map blows we are down to a few inches.... Had maybe 4 to start the day. Bare spots evident all along 195 and grass poking through everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 NOHRSC map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 that snow depth map doesnt seem to represent elevated terrain well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Will's does....good job mets with last systems snowfall map in E MA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 All the snow is gone from the Cape? that doesn't seem right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 That map blows we are down to a few inches.... Had maybe 4 to start the day. Bare spots evident all along 195 and grass poking through everywhere Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 All the snow is gone from the Cape? that doesn't seem right It's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 It's not. Yeah I dunno whats up with that...I feel like that site alwayslooks funny for the Cape. Not sure if it has to do with the narrow land area, but its often wrong there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 5-6" otg here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 NOHRSC map Map is a little high along rte 24 I was just there. A little high here, but good over towards 495. Snow should be gone here Monday aside of piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Yeah I dunno whats up with that...I feel like that site alwayslooks funny for the Cape. Not sure if it has to do with the narrow land area, but its often wrong there. It always seems to short change the coast and especially the CApe. But it actually seems correct here. Probably 10-12" or so give or take 2". We were pretty mild today so it compacted some. Definitely major settling since Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Map is a little high along rte 24 I was just there. A little high here, but good over towards 495. Snow should be gone here Monday aside of piles. Highways are horrible spots to Judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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