TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yeah jerry good point, noticed side streets in Cambridge still have snow on them and snow isnt looking too ratty yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 About time we kicked the harsh winter wx and moved into a more mild winter pattern. Could be a mild February and March, especially if we aren't talking about much of any blocking. I think you wandered into the wrong place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think you wandered into the wrong place Hes trolling pro warmth in every thread....in dire need of attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hes trolling pro warmth in every thread....in dire need of attention.Lol his posts before the last storm before he got a foot were classic bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yeah jerry good point, noticed side streets in Cambridge still have snow on them and snow isnt looking too ratty yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Lol his posts before the last storm before he got a foot were classic bad. Are you a nomad? Lol...your locale says SNE so i picture you like an european vacationer backpacking throughout SNE looking for deep snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Same here Jerry. Took my son sledding for the firrst time. Nice to do it with temps in the U30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 his dog looks right at home....mine wont step in the snow let alone lay in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hes trolling pro warmth in every thread....in dire need of attention.Maybe he is trolling, but there was nothing there any more harmless than the cold and snow cheerleading posts, haha.If he said its time to kick the upcoming thaw and get back to cold and snow, with a epic snowy pattern possible in Feb and March...no one would've thought twice about his post, lol. Since it's the opposite, he's likely trolling, haha. I love snow and cold so much I made it my career, but we shouldn't trash people if they post something that's not pro-snow or pro-cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Maybe he is trolling, but there was nothing there any more harmless than the cold and snow cheerleading posts. If he said its time to kick the upcoming thaw and get back to cold and snow, with a epic snowy pattern possible in Feb and March...no one would've thought twice about his post, lol. Since it's the opposite, he's likely trolling, haha. I love snow and cold so much I made it my career, but we shouldn't trash people if they post something that's not pro-snow or pro-cold. i dont trash pro warmth people. to each is own....but look at his post in banter "54 days til spring" and then in here which made zero sense. its like, ok you like warm weather we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 i dont trash pro warmth people. to each is own....but look at his post in banter "54 days til spring" and then in here which made zero sense. its like, ok you like warm weather we get it. Haha true. It is a snow lovers forum, almost to the point we need a disclaimer on the forum. It just always cracks me up someone posts something about warmth or rain or mild pattern and there's like 7 quick responses refuting it...post the exact opposite and no one notices, it's just another post on the board. By the way it's been nice having you in New England and another regular poster dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Haha true. It is a snow lovers forum, almost to the point we need a disclaimer on the forum. It just always cracks me up someone posts something about warmth or rain or mild pattern and there's like 7 quick responses refuting it...post the exact opposite and no one notices, it's just another post on the board. yea. well when you say, "warmth rest of winter esp with no blocking". you're gonna get responses, and thats what his intention was. obv anyone remotely with a brain knows we've had zero blocking and its been cold as balls. so my point is, make a post backing it up with some scientific data. same scenario if someone posts, "cold and snowy rest of winter" with no data.... but yea I agree, its a snow lovers forum. but when your in NE, that's kind of a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hes trolling pro warmth in every thread....in dire need of attention. riiiight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 riiiight "54 days til spring!" "warm feb and march, esp w/ no blocking" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 "54 days til spring!" "warm feb and march, esp w/ no blocking" lol Try reading what I actually posted, and not your framed version of it. About time we kicked the harsh winter wx and moved into a more mild winter pattern. Could be a mild February and March, especially if we aren't talking about much of any blocking. I'm not saying an inferno, or a lock. The majority of cold thus far has been displaced north and west of here, which makes sense. We'll need a -NAO month to save February, jmo. The next few weeks of mid-winter will be largely wasted too. Models seem to suggest that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Try reading what I actually posted, and not your framed version of it. I'm not saying an inferno, or a lock. The majority of cold thus far has been displaced north and west of here, which makes sense. We'll need a -NAO month to save February, jmo. The next few weeks of mid-winter will be largely wasted, too. Models seem to suggest that. what? -Dec and so far a -Jan. youve been below normal....of course its always going to be colder NW, no matter where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Are you a nomad? Lol...your locale says SNE so i picture you like an european vacationer backpacking throughout SNE looking for deep snows.close but drift hunting, lots of good ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Haha true. It is a snow lovers forum, almost to the point we need a disclaimer on the forum. It just always cracks me up someone posts something about warmth or rain or mild pattern and there's like 7 quick responses refuting it...post the exact opposite and no one notices, it's just another post on the board. By the way it's been nice having you in New England and another regular poster dude. no one said a word when he post after post Debbied his one foot storm this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 no one said a word when he post after post Debbied his one foot storm this week. odd, I don't see a single report of 12" in this county. The 30-50:1 ratios were astounding and the sole reason the we had a 5-10" storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 odd, I don't see a single report of 12" in this county. The 30-50:1 ratios were astounding and the sole reason the we had a 5-10" storm here. In the end, you were happily weeneeing snow totals in yby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Is it me or is there a gigantic rain storm (for most) on the GFS out at 9 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Euro ensembles are looking really nice past 1/15. It'll be pretty boring though and above avg temps in the 1/10-1/15 timeframe. They build up a really poleward AK ridge in the LR and dump the cold back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It appears the character of winter as we have known it so far this 2013-2014 is about to change. To what is not entirely known... but this pulsing and seemingly dependable return to -EPO persistence looks to be a thing of the past. During the overall transition to whatever new paradigm is in store, the cold looks destined to relax beyond the current record or near record breaking arctic invasion. A more zonal, progressive appeal should see much of the conus return to normal to above normal, switching back to the 30-year warmer than normal climate mode; which is what happens when we don't have the advantage of blocking in the Alaskan sector. It is important to note that regions from the NP-GL-NE can still register winter-like events in a normal to somewhat above normal regime. The PNA is forecast to wobble around but there are some positive spatial-temporal intervals in there, and hat suggests there could be activity in this new era. Beyond (some 10 days from now...) it is unclear if N/A returns to the previous circulation mode, or if winter reformulates its self around a different set of influences. I suspect the AO may begin to play a bigger role (negative) as we head toward the end of the month, indulging in an extended view. The reason being is that a rapid on-set warming node is now being detected in the 30 to 1 hPa levels of the stratosphere, according to CPC's monitoring: What is not known are: 1) whether this is merely a warm node, and not associated with actual SSW 2) if/when this emerging air mass detection then would begin to exhibit down-welling behavior ... this is key in the AO correlation. Purely as supposition ... the current 10 hPa initialization shows a rather intense warm eruption has recently taken place (I've been watching this...): Moving forward to D10, this region has decayed to nearly neutral, while the 100 hPa level shows that a warm anomaly has expanded over those same 10 days. This "might" back us into assuming that warming does in fact begin to propagate downwards. The correlation has a time lag of ~ 20 to 30 days. It's not a fast process. According to my own findings the -AO response to down-welling occurs when the warm tongue begins to lick the tropopausal depths. Going back over the down-welling anomalies spanning the last 30 years, in just about every case a -AO can be registered around the approximate lag. We'll see how this evolves. It is not a very well correlated year overall for SSWs for other findings; but we also know those other correlations have periods of anomalous break-downs, so it is not impossible that an AO -effecting SSW could transpire. SSW aside ... that is a fairly large area of robust warm anomalies near the tropopause over the NP. That would seem to argue for suppression in ambient UVM in that region, and ridging underneath and down stream into the EPO sector would tend to fit with this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Then there's this and Euro GEFS Canadian ENS which take us back to AK ridge and Arctic hounds ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 TIp it's coming back. In fact, it almost looks better than what we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 TIp it's coming back. In fact, it almost looks better than what we've had. We'll see on the distant future. The theme I was trying to convey there is that for the next week to 10 days post the cold snap is one of a relaxed winter. But like I said, that doesn't mean we can't get an errant system in there in a marginal this or that... normal for our latitude always comes along with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It appears the character of winter as we have known it so far this 2013-2014 is about to change. To what is not entirely known... but this pulsing and seemingly dependable return to -EPO persistence looks to be a thing of the past. During the overall transition to whatever new paradigm is in store, the cold looks destined to relax beyond the current record or near record breaking arctic invasion. A more zonal, progressive appeal should see much of the conus return to normal to above normal, switching back to the 30-year warmer than normal climate mode; which is what happens when we don't have the advantage of blocking in the Alaskan sector. It is important to note that regions from the NP-GL-NE can still register winter-like events in a normal to somewhat above normal regime. The PNA is forecast to wobble around but there are some positive spatial-temporal intervals in there, and hat suggests there could be activity in this new era. Beyond (some 10 days from now...) it is unclear if N/A returns to the previous circulation mode, or if winter reformulates its self around a different set of influences. I suspect the AO may begin to play a bigger role (negative) as we head toward the end of the month, indulging in an extended view. The reason being is that a rapid on-set warming node is now being detected in the 30 to 1 hPa levels of the stratosphere, according to CPC's monitoring: What is not known are: 1) whether this is merely a warm node, and not associated with actual SSW 2) if/when this emerging air mass detection then would begin to exhibit down-welling behavior ... this is key in the AO correlation. Purely as supposition ... the current 10 hPa initialization shows a rather intense warm eruption has recently taken place (I've been watching this...): Moving forward to D10, this region has decayed to nearly neutral, while the 100 hPa level shows that a warm anomaly has expanded over those same 10 days. This "might" back us into assuming that warming does in fact begin to propagate downwards. The correlation has a time lag of ~ 20 to 30 days. It's not a fast process. According to my own findings the -AO response to down-welling occurs when the warm tongue begins to lick the tropopausal depths. Going back over the down-welling anomalies spanning the last 30 years, in just about every case a -AO can be registered around the approximate lag. We'll see how this evolves. It is not a very well correlated year overall for SSWs for other findings; but we also know those other correlations have periods of anomalous break-downs, so it is not impossible that an AO -effecting SSW could transpire. SSW aside ... that is a fairly large area of robust warm anomalies near the tropopause over the NP. That would seem to argue for suppression in ambient UVM in that region, and ridging underneath and down stream into the EPO sector would tend to fit with this feature. do you think its reasonable if we lose a favorable epo, that we might gain a favorable nao? sort of...a balancing of the atmosphere..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 We'll see on the distant future. The theme I was trying to convey there is that for the next week to 10 days post the cold snap is one of a relaxed winter. But like I said, that doesn't mean we can't get an errant system in there in a marginal this or that... normal for our latitude always comes along with that. so what you are saying there is going to be a thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 TIp it's coming back. In fact, it almost looks better than what we've had. It looks like in the LR its going to get connected with the PNA ridge...so it will be a really cold pattern if that can happen. The EPO block never really goes away, it kind of retrogrades toward siberia and rots for a bit, before it reconnects with the next round of ridging into AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 TIp it's coming back. In fact, it almost looks better than what we've had. We'll see on the distant future. The theme I was trying to convey there is that for the next week to 10 days post the cold snap is one of a relaxed winter. But like I said, that doesn't mean we can't get an errant system in there in a marginal this or that... normal for our latitude always comes along with that. Lol. Welcome to 200 posts ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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