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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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I heard TWC's Jim Cantore yesterday morning say that there would be a change in the long-range pattern near the end of January, but he didn't elaborate.

 

Probably after the 17-18th or so. Guidance starting to come around to another reload it seems. We still would like to get this inside 240hrs to really get a good feel, but confidence is increasing.

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As far as the pattern ... it may be a red herring, hiccup run of the tele's.  Don't blame the messenger but that is a pretty substantial warming signal from

converged -PNA/+EPO/+NAO over at the CDC.   Not sure I totally buy it though... For 3 days the PNA was forecast to rise, then last night it abruptly collapsed; contrasting the CPC has held serve as a positive - neutral -- positive relay over the next 2 weeks.  I'd like to see some CDC consistency there.

 

If the CDC is right ... heh, you may want to find other hobbies.  

 

The AO is negative for the time being, but has a substantial rise 10 days from now... not sure how that factors in.

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I was kidding I'm way above...have to be pushing almost 20" now when 30" is the normal yearly total. 

 

 

:lol: Sweet...so we really are the only area suffering below normal snowfall so far, haha.

 

The worm will turn at some point I hope.  Maybe one of those 5 feet in 7 days type patterns like Feb 2009.  That would help.

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:lol: Sweet...so we really are the only area suffering below normal snowfall so far, haha.

 

The worm will turn at some point I hope.  Maybe one of those 5 feet in 7 days type patterns like Feb 2009.  That would help.

 

Yeah, we've had a decent run here.  I saw first hand the lack of snow even up in SW Maine.  Although SR is up to 111 trails...JMHO I thought the conditions were "ok" only around NYE.  They really need more real snow to go on top of the high water content base that ices up like a bastage each afternoon.

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Take those readings with a grain of salt. A lot of them are from COOPs that may have missing and/or bad data.

 

 

Yep, I have scrutinized a lot fo that data, and you learn which coops to trust for good data. Hubbdave was prob looking at the old Huddardston coop which is one of the unreliable ones with a crap ton of missing data. It went defunct in 1980.

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Hmm. 48.6" on the Hingham site. That site is a fellow by the name of Bob Skilling I believe. He is one of the observers at Blue Hill...basically runs the show there. He has some good obs so I trust his numbers. Nice little weenie max in my area. It also encompasses the snowy decades more than the sh*tty ones so I'm not surprised at an elevated number.

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Yeah, we've had a decent run here.  I saw first hand the lack of snow even up in SW Maine.  Although SR is up to 111 trails...JMHO I thought the conditions were "ok" only around NYE.  They really need more real snow to go on top of the high water content base that ices up like a bastage each afternoon.

 

Conditions the past two days have been phenomenal up here on the groomed trails... we had been getting some upslope fluffy snow last week that totaled about 12", but never really turned the conditions around.  Then we got around 3" from the big SNE storm, that contained like 0.35" of liquid (dense snow that actually stuck to the trails and didn't get blown into the woods) and the groomers were finally able to lay down quality packed powder.  I posted some pics in the ski thread.

 

Of course, as this winter has gone... once conditions get really, truly good again, we get a cutter or thaw.  The skiing was soooo good before the Grinch Storm, and has now come full circle again, only to have this next abortion to go through, lol.  Such is skiing in the northeast though.

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Yeah, we've had a decent run here. I saw first hand the lack of snow even up in SW Maine. Although SR is up to 111 trails...JMHO I thought the conditions were "ok" only around NYE. They really need more real snow to go on top of the high water content base that ices up like a bastage each afternoon.

You were a week early, look at the hydro reports
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Ryan will appreciate this. My best friend in life is a plow operator. He called after plowing for fourty hours straight. I asked him about his accumulations, he said about7- 8 in Westerly where he plows. I asked him about home in Hopkinton RI, he said about 4 inches, I have said that's It? I saw a couple of 8 inch reports, he said I measured today, lol I spent a good ten minutes explaining settling, sublimation 36,hours after the last snow fell. He did tell me about some 6-10 foot drifts near the Westerly Airport in the parking lot he plows, said between 2 am and 4 am it was blizzard conditions right near the ocean.

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Ryan will appreciate this. My best friend in life is a plow operator. He called after plowing for fourty hours straight. I asked him about his accumulations, he said about7- 8 in Westerly where he plows. I asked him about home in Hopkinton RI, he said about 4 inches, I have said that's It? I saw a couple of 8 inch reports, he said I measured today, lol I spent a good ten minutes explaining settling, sublimation 36,hours after the last snow fell. He did tell me about some 6-10 foot drifts near the Westerly Airport in the parking lot he plows, said between 2 am and 4 am it was blizzard conditions right near the ocean.

 

I took a walk at 1am and it was blizzard conditions no doubt. I don't know why BOX got cute with their warnings.

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