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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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I know you don't seem to care, but I don't think it's necessarily about the snowpack but just keeping snow (even 2-3") on the ground through the winter. It's not unreasonably for the interior SNE areas to expect at least something on the ground throughout the winter.

With snowpack, the thing is you know it won't snow every day, so you at least have the white on the ground for the winter feel. To me it doesn't matter how cold it gets, it's not winter unless there's white on the ground. There's something repulsive to me about arctic air over brown frozen ground, lol. Aesthetically, snow cover is very pleasing for the winter eye.

 

My wife is from Illinois and it gets cold out there and they rarely have snow cover.  Every time I visit there in the winter it's the most dreary time.  Snow cover just makes everything look better, especially out in the country and away from urban/suburban areas.  It doesn't look right out here without snow.  In urban areas I can see how snowcover can be a nuisance and become ugly.

 

For me, I'm good with a warm up if it leads to more cold are in February and into March.  I have six weeks to make a large chunk of my annual income so I have a selfish reason.

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Of course having snow on the ground is better then brown ground, I don't think there is a person who disagrees. But, life goes on if it is not wire to wire. My point is more to those snow pack snobs who are always hoping wire to wire snow...sometimes it doesn't always go like that. You can post any day 16 prog or use a Leon reference until you feel better, but mother nature does not care.

 

Well, I can completely see the feeling of some in the cities who don't like the snow after it falls... it does turn into a slushy mess, parking becomes a hassel, its brown from all the road traffic, etc.  I know you'd rather have snow on the ground all winter, too, but you seem realistic with the expectations.

 

My expectations up here is to pretty much go wire-to-wire.  I'm not sure if that's a reasonable expectation, but it seems we can usually come close, except maybe a handful of days after a bigger thaw or something.  But I almost have a more emotional breakdown (lol) if I completely lose snow cover than missing a snowstorm.  Missing a snowstorm is one thing, snow is still usually on the ground so it still looks like a New England village in winter, but going brown annoys me just as much as it annoys Blizz.  I just won't let on to it until it actually happens, haha. 

 

If I have to put on a hat, gloves, winter jacket to take the dog outside, I want snow boots on.  Nothing worse than going out in like running shoes to take the dog for a walk in February, lol.

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Well, I can completely see the feeling of some in the cities who don't like the snow after it falls... it does turn into a slushy mess, parking becomes a hassel, its brown from all the road traffic, etc.  I know you'd rather have snow on the ground all winter, too, but you seem realistic with the expectations.

 

My expectations up here is to pretty much go wire-to-wire.  I'm not sure if that's a reasonable expectation, but it seems we can usually come close, except maybe a handful of days after a bigger thaw or something.  But I almost have a more emotional breakdown (lol) if I completely lose snow cover than missing a snowstorm.  Missing a snowstorm is one thing, snow is still usually on the ground so it still looks like a New England village in winter, but going brown annoys me just as much as it annoys Blizz.  I just won't let on to it until it actually happens, haha. 

 

If I have to put on a hat, gloves, winter jacket to take the dog outside, I want snow boots on.  Nothing worse than going out in like running shoes to take the dog for a walk in February, lol.

 

 

Well this is more for SNE. I don't think NNE fits in this discussion...lol. You guys are on another level. I love snow as much as anyone, but I'm a realistic met. I know it won't be on the ground for the entire winter as much as I would love to see that. 

 

We've been spoiled by some nice winters lately. I see a lot of people complaining about 12" of snow and not having a 18"+ snowpack from December to March. I got news for them...sooner rather than later we will be back to the days where we rejoice for something 6"+. Those days are coming whether we like it or not.

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Well this is more for SNE. I don't think NNE fits in this discussion...lol. You guys are on another level. I love snow as much as anyone, but I'm a realistic met. I know it won't be on the ground for the entire winter as much as I would love to see that.

We've been spoiled by some nice winters lately. I see a lot of people complaining about 12" of snow and not having a 18"+ snowpack from December to March. I got news for them...sooner rather than later we will be back to the days where we rejoice for something 6"+. Those days are coming whether we like it or not.

Nah, those days aren't coming back because every storm is hyped to no end and the "arms race" to measure the most makes every storm 8 or 10".

You watch....over the next ten years we will see more "extreme" events on paper not less.

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Well this is more for SNE. I don't think NNE fits in this discussion...lol. You guys are on another level. I love snow as much as anyone, but I'm a realistic met. I know it won't be on the ground for the entire winter as much as I would love to see that.

We've been spoiled by some nice winters lately. I see a lot of people complaining about 12" of snow and not having a 18"+ snowpack from December to March. I got news for them...sooner rather than later we will be back to the days where we rejoice for something 6"+. Those days are coming whether we like it or not.

uh, 11/12? not many here are what you describe above either.
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LOL really?

Sometimes you think everyone thinks like Kevin. I have not seen anyone here say they expect a foot of snow OTG all winter in SNE. The very great majority in this region of posters are fully cognizant of their climo and realize that warm periods happen more frequently than in NNE. Having said that! it so far has been a stellar winter with storms, cold and snow. After the climo Jan thaw the reload looks great.
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Once again, an overrunning Leontine pattern d5-6. In this case it's the end of the last bullet in in the arctic gun before reload and don't sell it short, it may delight more than you think. While arctic reloads we meh and warm but that gives all of us the opportunity to reacquaint ourselves with the non wx world.

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Once again, an overrunning Leontine pattern d5-6. In this case it's the end of the last bulletin in the arctic gun before reload and don't sell it short, it may delight more than you think. While arctic reloads we meh and warm but that gives all of us the opportunity to reacquaint ourselves with the non wx world.

Be careful the resentment of you using Leon's name is high. Notice the disdain in some posts, yet they reap the benefits. I agree with you, climo thaw and reload, it's a beautiful thing. The best part is the skiing is going to be sweet with no super torches in sight.
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Sometimes you think everyone thinks like Kevin. I have not seen anyone here say they expect a foot of snow OTG all winter in SNE. The very great majority in this region of posters are fully cognizant of their climo and realize that warm periods happen more frequently than in NNE. Having said that! it so far has been a stellar winter with storms, cold and snow. After the climo Jan thaw the reload looks great.

Yes many are cognizant for sure. I just think people have been spoiled quite a bit and it comes out from time to time.

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We don't live far enough north to satisfy our snow pack fetish. I moved as far as I could and still get into ALB and NYC at times, but I torch all too frequently also. Maybe my final resting place (while above the ground  lol) can be northern NE someplace so I'm truly satisfied. But until then...have to be realistic.

 

This winter is giving us the finger too much because of the very poor NAO situation...hope that gets better in mid/late winter.

 

 

Sometimes you think everyone thinks like Kevin. I have not seen anyone here say they expect a foot of snow OTG all winter in SNE. The very great majority in this region of posters are fully cognizant of their climo and realize that warm periods happen more frequently than in NNE. Having said that! it so far has been a stellar winter with storms, cold and snow. After the climo Jan thaw the reload looks great.

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Be careful the resentment of you using Leon's name is high. Notice the disdain in some posts, yet they reap the benefits. I agree with you, climo thaw and reload, it's a beautiful thing. The best part is the skiing is going to be sweet with no super torches in sight.

No resentment most don't understand it. Leon would have had to run 30 yards the wrong way, run 15 the right way, run the wrong way again etc for it to have any meaning to what we are seeing this winter.

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Nah, those days aren't coming back because every storm is hyped to no end and the "arms race" to measure the most makes every storm 8 or 10".

You watch....over the next ten years we will see more "extreme" events on paper not less.

Correct...there are no more run of the mill 3-6" storms. Every storm is hyped like a blizzard if it hits any major metro area...24 hour storm coverage, TWC naming them like hurricanes and acting like white hurricanes are en route.

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Correct...there are no more run of the mill 3-6" storms. Every storm is hyped like a blizzard if it hits any major metro area...24 hour storm coverage, TWC naming them like hurricanes and acting like white hurricanes are en route.

Take any area with a decent reporting base. Submit a "supportable" but ridiculous total of say 14" during a storm when in reality only 7 has fallen and I guarantee surrounding reports will suddenly bounce up.

Half the time I think predicted totals are driving reports not the other way around.

Anyway the point being even in the worst of future winters there will be blizzards and 10" storms because of the need to verify and the need to have the most.

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Having said that! it so far has been a stellar winter with storms, cold and snow. After the climo Jan thaw the reload looks great.

I hope we make up some snowfall ground so I can share in that "stellar winter" sentiment. We got more snow in November than December...and this Dec snowfall wise is right there with 12/2006 and 12/2011 up here. Based on my data we were at 56% normal snowfall for December, with a few thaws, that left a bad taste in my mouth, despite the cold temps.

With that said, anyone from like central/southern VT/NH/ME southward is probably at like 150% of normal snow so far. It bothers me that Stratton in southern VT is almost catching us in snowfall haha.

Hopefully you guys are making fun of my early January blues in a few months after we get 250" in like 90 days or something like spring 2007.

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Take any area with a decent reporting base. Submit a "supportable" but ridiculous total of say 14" during a storm when in reality only 7 has fallen and I guarantee surrounding reports will suddenly bounce up.

Half the time I think predicted totals are driving reports not the other way around.

Anyway the point being even in the worst of future winters there will be blizzards and 10" storms because of the need to verify and the need to have the most.

You do a great deservice to the many dedicated coops and certified storm spotters in our area, just saying, sure an inflated report pops up here and there but the NWS filters them out.
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Cuomo closed the Thruway from NYC to exit 23 (Albany) for a general 5-8 inch snowfall in that region. That was a ridiculous over-reaction.

 

 

Correct...there are no more run of the mill 3-6" storms. Every storm is hyped like a blizzard if it hits any major metro area...24 hour storm coverage, TWC naming them like hurricanes and acting like white hurricanes are en route.

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You do a great deservice to the many dedicated coops and certified storm spotters in our area, just saying, sure an inflated report pops up here and there but the NWS filters them out.

I dunno we get a ton of bad reports. Almost all are too high. Why do I never see a report and think "gee... That sounds low"?

Even legit spotters can frequently measure in bad spots.

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It's January 4th. If come 2-4 we are still seeing the same tune I still don't understand the lett reference.

I have only had 60-% of my annual snow so far....meh.

It's the 93/94 gradient Jeryy references half in jest, people get riled up about it and that's pretty funny, only having 60 % of your annual snow Jan 4th, think about that.
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Slightly related to this...  But I notice that ALY is now soliciting snowfall reports on Facebook and then including them in their public statements. Some of them have been so clearly erroneous, but their policy seems to be to include everything and not alter any content. . Some are total amateurs who have no idea about measuring snowfall. They always included the obs from a few TV channels spoters, but those of us who do that are wx geek types who tend to understand snowfall measurement,.

 

Take any area with a decent reporting base. Submit a "supportable" but ridiculous total of say 14" during a storm when in reality only 7 has fallen and I guarantee surrounding reports will suddenly bounce up.

Half the time I think predicted totals are driving reports not the other way around.

Anyway the point being even in the worst of future winters there will be blizzards and 10" storms because of the need to verify and the need to have the most.

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