Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Halftime. Stock up on items needed for the second half and get some work done. 5 day mostly above normal peroid is my call d9-14. But once the pattern reloads we're off to the races imho. My call is the same. Up down and snow pack munchers in between but who cares old snowpack is like old porn....only creeps like to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Pretty good consensus on one more snow event in the pattern late next week. It's out in time and may disappear but it's fairly uniform on the "big 3" today. There's a temp gradient there for it to work with. I could see that panning out into a modest snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Halftime. Stock up on items needed for the second half and get some work done. 5 day mostly above normal peroid is my call d9-14. But once the pattern reloads we're off to the races imho. Not looking forward to it..and it upsets me greatly. Makes me angry even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not looking forward to it..and it upsets me greatly. Makes me angry even Not every winter is wire to wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not every winter is wire to wire. But not every winter brings snow ,below zero, a torch snowpack eater, and then a colder shot of air than the preceding one over a 5 day period either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not every winter is wire to wire. Maybe 1 in 15 is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Don't care about snowpack really. It's nice, but not necessary. If were going to have chances the second half of the month, I brief warmup isn't all that bad. Already about half of my season snowfall total..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Maybe 1 in 15 is When was the last time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 But not every winter brings snow ,below zero, a torch snowpack eater, and then a colder shot of air than the preceding one over a 5 day period either 20 years ago did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 20 years ago did that.What year was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 What year was that? 1993-94. You knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 How warm are we looking during the disaster past day 9? Are looking at days and days of 50's and 60's? or just 40's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Halftime. Stock up on items needed for the second half and get some work done. 5 day mostly above normal peroid is my call d9-14. But once the pattern reloads we're off to the races imho. LR gfs,fwiw, is about as cold as the stuff we have now (about 360+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 LR gfs,fwiw, is about as cold as the stuff we have now (about 360+) Signs are showing up now for a fun time MLK Day and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Hopefully the EC continues the trend of higher heights south of AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Hopefully the EC continues the trend of higher heights south of AK. This is the anti 2011-12. Whenever there were hints that we'd get a favorable pattern, close in guidance kept it transient. I've observed that in the guidance this year. Persistence FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This is the anti 2011-12. Whenever there were hints that we'd get a favorable pattern, close in guidance kept it transient. I've observed that in the guidance this year. Persistence FTW. I was hoping the EC was wrong a week ago, but it finally got this mild stretch correct it appears. Signals look a little mixed in the long range near the end of the month, but I think we will see more EPO ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 How warm are we looking during the disaster past day 9? Are looking at days and days of 50's and 60's? or just 40's? Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Bump 2m euro temps are 40-45 for the euro d9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Bump Too early to say. It may be more of those days where it's just mild with lower dews and then maybe a cutter at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I hate what cutters represent. Just the word irks me, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not looking forward to it..and it upsets me greatly. Makes me angry even I realize you have a real passion for winter weather, but I think you need to keep things in perspective. We all long ago realized we have no control over the weather. There are far more important things in life to be angry and upset about. I think you would agree that this has been a pretty interesting first 34 days of met winter. And we still have plenty of time left for more wintry weather. If my memory is serving me well ,93-94 was not start to finish. I moved in Dec. 93, and I do not recall any snow being on the ground until 2-3 days after Christmas. At least here in the Merrimack Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I was hoping the EC was wrong a week ago, but it finally got this mild stretch correct it appears. Signals look a little mixed in the long range near the end of the month, but I think we will see more EPO ridging. how sure are you of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 how sure are you of this? In the long range? I think it will happen. Whether it is more towards the west coast or near AK remains to be seen. Still a +NAO. My thinking is that it might be more towards the 18th before we notice this change on the East Coast. But with a +NAO...I don't have to tell you that ridging won't be far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 how sure are you of this? did you pull the trigger on winter cancel yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The D9+ torch seems to be similar to what we saw around the 12/20-12/25 period. I know the LR Gfs is not taken real seriously, but it seems to be generally correct with LR pattern rwcognition imo, and its been consistent with the arctic stuff returning to the CONUS around 300+. But there will be another slaughter before that im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The monitoring division of CPC's stratosphere now graphically measuring an emerging warm node ... we'll see where it goes.. .but it is first emerging in the 5 to 10 hPa levels where they typically do. This is not a very good correlated year for QBO, but I see there have been SSWs that went on to effect AO in + QBOs in the past, so any causality is only partially connected. Right now the GEF -derived levels have a strengthening warmth over Siberia, so we'll see if this all a prelude to an actual SSW, and subsequently any propagating/downwell behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Boy GEFS and Canada Ens look sweet in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The D9+ torch seems to be similar to what we saw around the 12/20-12/25 period. I know the LR Gfs is not taken real seriously, but it seems to be generally correct with LR pattern rwcognition imo, and its been consistent with the arctic stuff returning to the CONUS around 300+. But there will be another slaughter before that im sure. It's been fine in general. We will see the pattern wander in and out as things revolve. Snowpack dandies will have a sad year but snowboard sandies will be busy. Plenty of snows in between calamities. It's a good thing too we couldn't have this type of cold non stop and snow, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Boy GEFS and Canada Ens look sweet in the LR How far ahead are we talking...like around MLK Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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