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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Halftime. Stock up on items needed for the second half and get some work done. 5 day mostly above normal peroid is my call d9-14. But once the pattern reloads we're off to the races imho.

My call is the same. Up down and snow pack munchers in between but who cares old snowpack is like old porn....only creeps like to look at it.

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Pretty good consensus on one more snow event in the pattern late next week. It's out in time and may disappear but it's fairly uniform on the "big 3" today.

 

 

There's a temp gradient there for it to work with. I could see that panning out into a modest snow event.

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Hopefully the EC continues the trend of higher heights south of AK.

 

 

This is the anti 2011-12.  Whenever there were hints that we'd get a favorable pattern, close in guidance kept it transient.  I've observed that in the guidance this year.  Persistence FTW.

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This is the anti 2011-12.  Whenever there were hints that we'd get a favorable pattern, close in guidance kept it transient.  I've observed that in the guidance this year.  Persistence FTW.

 

I was hoping the EC was wrong a week ago, but it finally got this mild stretch correct it appears. Signals look a little mixed in the long range near the end of the month, but I think we will see more EPO ridging.

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Not looking forward to it..and it upsets me greatly. Makes me angry even

I realize you have a real passion for winter weather, but I think you need to keep things in perspective. We all long ago realized we have no control over the weather. There are far more important things in life to be angry and upset about. I think you would agree that this has been a pretty interesting first 34 days of met winter. And we still have plenty of time left for more wintry weather.

 

If my memory is serving me well ,93-94 was not start to finish. I moved in Dec. 93, and I do not recall any snow being on the ground until 2-3 days after Christmas. At least here in the Merrimack Valley.

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I was hoping the EC was wrong a week ago, but it finally got this mild stretch correct it appears. Signals look a little mixed in the long range near the end of the month, but I think we will see more EPO ridging.

how sure are you of this?

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how sure are you of this?

 

In the long range? I think it will happen. Whether it is more towards the west coast or near AK remains to be seen. Still a +NAO. My thinking is that it might be more towards the 18th before we notice this change on the East Coast. But with a +NAO...I don't have to tell you that ridging won't be far offshore.

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The D9+ torch seems to be similar to what we saw around the 12/20-12/25 period. I know the LR Gfs is not taken real seriously, but it seems to be generally correct with LR pattern rwcognition imo, and its been consistent with the arctic stuff returning to the CONUS around 300+.

But there will be another slaughter before that im sure.

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The monitoring division of CPC's stratosphere now graphically measuring an emerging warm node ... we'll see where it goes.. .but it is first emerging in the 5 to 10 hPa levels where they typically do. 

 

This is not a very good correlated year for QBO, but I see there have been SSWs that went on to effect AO in + QBOs in the past, so any causality is only partially connected. Right now the GEF -derived levels have a strengthening warmth over Siberia, so we'll see if this all a prelude to an actual SSW, and subsequently any propagating/downwell behavior. 

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The D9+ torch seems to be similar to what we saw around the 12/20-12/25 period. I know the LR Gfs is not taken real seriously, but it seems to be generally correct with LR pattern rwcognition imo, and its been consistent with the arctic stuff returning to the CONUS around 300+.

But there will be another slaughter before that im sure.

It's been fine in general. We will see the pattern wander in and out as things revolve. Snowpack dandies will have a sad year but snowboard sandies will be busy. Plenty of snows in between calamities. It's a good thing too we couldn't have this type of cold non stop and snow, IMHO.

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