Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 all Euro? Let's see about thisI don't think he's all Euro. He's only got light rain and 40 for a few hours on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NCEP re the cold signal during the next week ... "WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD, WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ON JANUARY 3-4 AND 5-8, WHICH COULD BRING TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20-30 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL. EARLY ON, DUE TO LOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/DEEP COLD AIR NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER UNDER THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE POLAR VORTEX, LOWS IN THE -10S AND -20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SECTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND, WITH PLACES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY/WASHINGTON D.C. SEEING ONE OF THEIR COLDER DAYS OF THE PAST 20 YEARS. A SECOND SHOT OF COLDNESS INVADES EASTERN MONTANA, MINNESOTA, AND WISCONSIN ON THE 5-7TH, WITH LOWS AT OR BELOW -20F FORECAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEDGES IN, MODERATE UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST-FACING SLOPES FROM MONTANA ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS SUCH AS EMBARRASS DROP INTO THE -30S OR -40S F OVERNIGHT -- SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES COULD SEE THEIR COLDEST DAY AROUND THE 8TH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING THE MAIN CAUSE UNDER A 1040+ HPA ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON THE 8TH. OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA, IN GENERAL, THESE GLACIAL AIR MASSES APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST SINCE 1993/1994, DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION." NCEP says take a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Roundy MJO plots showing weakening in the Jan 1-10 period with some weak KW propagation over the IO/western MC. We then see redevelopment into the eastern IO after the 10th which sets off the warm up. MJO wave eventually moves towards the dateline around Jan 25th. RMM plots give a false weakening signal, when in reality we have a solid MJO wave in place, albeit not that strong. Pretty much. Looks like maybe a nasty 1 week stretch perhaps and then a redeveloping ridge near the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NCEP says take a shot.shot hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GEFS are starting to get uglier, but not nearly like the EC...but the EC has toned down the all out lengthy torch signal. Still mild, but perhaps not as long. Either way, before all this it looks like we may have a bit of overrunning snow and/or ice as the high slips off the coast and retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NCEP says take a shot. http://youtu.be/EnaW2H1_m0w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Does seem like an ugly stretch for 3-5 days after the 8th or so before we try and reload. In fact the whole country might really warm up for a time before the Plains freeze again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ur right -- the GFS -derived MJO had shown maturation into a more robust Phase 7, but since ... there has been some kind of GFS retrograde correction. Now, that same mean has reverted back to a staunch Phase 6... What ever that will mean for the pattern ... the CDC WPO numbers are showing a positive teleconnector state in a week, and that "may" be a constructive wave interference for Phase 6 ...allow for its correlation on the pattern to be be expressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Let's do anything we can to switch up this pattern...only half of normal snowfall in December up here. Based on JSpin's meticulous data we were right there with Dec 2006 and Dec 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Let's do anything we can to switch up this pattern...only half of normal snowfall in December up here. Based on JSpin's meticulous data we were right there with Dec 2006 and Dec 2011. Qpf concerns mpm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 BTV is running 3 inches below normal or so in snowfall as of last night's climo report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 BTV is running 3 inches below normal or so in snowfall as of last night's climo report. No doubt its below in n greens, but they prob dip significantly below and above, throughout many years, very early for them but not encouraging. Eye wall what is btv for temps (dec) -4 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 There's a lot of lingering cold after the big cold shot next week that we might support a wintry event at the end of next week...most guidance now has sort of a SWFE snow deal for us. Not very big, but perhaps a few inches as it goes south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 There's a lot of lingering cold after the big cold shot next week that we might support a wintry event at the end of next week...most guidance now has sort of a SWFE snow deal for us. Not very big, but perhaps a few inches as it goes south of us.Box said it didn't have ensemble support in Afd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Box said it didn't have ensemble support in Afd I didn't read the AFD, so I won't comment on that, but several 06z GEFS members have it and the OP Euro has had it for a couple runs in a row now as well as the GGEM. Its 6-7 days out, so its really nothing to get worked up over at this point. Its also not that strong of a system....we'll see if it shows up still in another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I didn't read the AFD, so I won't comment on that, but several 06z GEFS members have it and the OP Euro has had it for a couple runs in a row now as well as the GGEM. Its 6-7 days out, so its really nothing to get worked up over at this point. Its also not that strong of a system....we'll see if it shows up still in another day or two. FYI FRIDAY AND BEYOND... MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I didn't read the AFD, so I won't comment on that, but several 06z GEFS members have it and the OP Euro has had it for a couple runs in a row now as well as the GGEM. Its 6-7 days out, so its really nothing to get worked up over at this point. Its also not that strong of a system....we'll see if it shows up still in another day or two. I like the idea of this system as a gate way to the warmer pattern. Seems like a classic scenario for a light waa snow event as the arctic departs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 When a jan pattern discussion thread has one page dating back almost 4 days in sne thread....u know major suckage ...is potentially on way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Gfs has that event next Friday...looks like a better deal for interior w E onshore BL winds and nice cold high above nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks nice on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 When a jan pattern discussion thread has one page dating back almost 4 days in sne thread....u know major suckage ...is potentially on way ...or that people have been preoccupied with a borderline blizzard and extreme cold in the short term. But I get your point; nothing to really get excited about in the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 ...or that people have been preoccupied with a borderline blizzard and extreme cold in the short term. But I get your point; nothing to really get excited about in the foreseeable future.I totally disagree, after the quick 12 hr warmup cutter I see lots of potential, pattern looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 No doubt its below in n greens, but they prob dip significantly below and above, throughout many years, very early for them but not encouraging. Eye wall what is btv for temps (dec) -4 or so BTV was -2.3 for DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Qpf concerns mpm? It's not a concern when it's reality, lol. The northern Greens are probably running the worst relative to normal of anyone in New England, however this area certainly isn't going to get any sympathy, lol. It's the same if like the Tug Hill was having a rough stretch, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro still has something sneaking under us later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 With any luck we'll have some fun after mid month. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It's not a concern when it's reality, lol. The northern Greens are probably running the worst relative to normal of anyone in New England, however this area certainly isn't going to get any sympathy, lol. It's the same if like the Tug Hill was having a rough stretch, haha. Must be another dis as tah at MRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Pretty good consensus on one more snow event in the pattern late next week. It's out in time and may disappear but it's fairly uniform on the "big 3" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 What a hideous looking day 9,10 on the Euro..After whatever threat comes along late next week..we have nothing for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 What a hideous looking day 9,10 on the Euro..After whatever threat comes along late next week..we have nothing for awhile Halftime. Stock up on items needed for the second half and get some work done. 5 day mostly above normal peroid is my call d9-14. But once the pattern reloads we're off to the races imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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