ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Some might be leaning off the Tobin with the EC ensembles. That's a really solid torch signal around 300-348 hours...amazing hwo different they are from other ensemble guidance. That would be a big thaw. It looks like they are bringing the cold back near the end of the run and extrapolating beyond, but man, that is so weird to see how warm it is in that D12-14 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's a really solid torch signal around 300-348 hours...amazing hwo different they are from other ensemble guidance. That would be a big thaw. It looks like they are bringing the cold back near the end of the run and extrapolating beyond, but man, that is so weird to see how warm it is in that D12-14 range. Haven't they done this before only to snap back cold? I'm not worried yet.. Let's enjoy the next 2 snow/icestorms and then we can worry about that after. I always hate when we have deep winter and there;s always some midget lurking in the bushes ready to jump out and start whacking your ankles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's a really solid torch signal around 300-348 hours...amazing hwo different they are from other ensemble guidance. That would be a big thaw. It looks like they are bringing the cold back near the end of the run and extrapolating beyond, but man, that is so weird to see how warm it is in that D12-14 range. Did someone post recently that there is some statistical support for "January thaws" ? It might have been Steve. The study also had some specific dates associated with it too -- can't recall those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Did someone post recently that there is some statistical support for "January thaws" ? It might have been Steve. The study also had some specific dates associated with it too -- can't recall those. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=IefBUuzpL7OqsAT8u4DYDQ&url=http://www.bluehill.org/climate/201001_January_Thaw.pdf&cd=1&ved=0CCsQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNHg9MHdb4_1UxK52okRtl88bYEy2w&sig2=44z4h1fP9jv36Bb9fAI9jg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Haven't they done this before only to snap back cold? I'm not worried yet.. Let's enjoy the next 2 snow/icestorms and then we can worry about that after. I always hate when we have deep winter and there;s always some midget lurking in the bushes ready to jump out and start whacking your ankles They havent done it to this extent though. Last winter, they tried to torch us for late February and early March and ended up busting while the GEFS outperformed them...it was a rare win for the GEFS, but they do happen sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Doesn't the MJO support the GEFS/GGEM pattern more than EC pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Doesn't the MJO support the GEFS/GGEM pattern more than EC pattern? The models are projecting different paths for the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I always enjoy the extended passive torch squirm from Kevin when we're about to enter a week long cold/snowy regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 So Dec will be the 2nd straight month all of the big 4 climo sites in SNE finish below normal . When did we last accomplish that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You should check out the sequence from Jan 15-19, 1994...one fo the coldest airmasses to hit the US on record...and we had a low tracking over Logan11's fanny in that. Nobody really remembers it much because it was just a brief shot of mild air in an otherwise frigid pattern...but it can still happen. I remember it. It was sub zero and we had wsw but the system run up the Hudson River. Temps spiked to 50 but the strong cold that swung though in its tail actually dumped 3 inches anafrontal snow at BOS. Leon then resumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Man lets go Americans....18z GEFS look rather nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised to see some snow showers tomorrow evening with that shortwave trough coming through. Some of the mesos hinting at some snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You should check out the sequence from Jan 15-19, 1994...one fo the coldest airmasses to hit the US on record...and we had a low tracking over Logan11's fanny in that. Nobody really remembers it much because it was just a brief shot of mild air in an otherwise frigid pattern...but it can still happen. I hated that storm. I was sitting at -28 in South Royalton, Vt and was incredulous as the forecast called for rain. Sure enough I spiked up to 46 before going back below zero the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i remember that--we went from 5 degrees to 45 degrees in like 3 hours-rained and then flash froze. We had +SN (extra-rimey "flakes") at about 5F in Gardiner on the evening of the 17th, while 35 miles east ROK was mid-40s with +RA on howling SE winds. Farther northeast there was rain/slop to mega-ice. I-95 south of BGR was a 10-15 mph road for a number of days due to ice that was too cold for salt and too hard for the grader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=IefBUuzpL7OqsAT8u4DYDQ&url=http://www.bluehill.org/climate/201001_January_Thaw.pdf&cd=1&ved=0CCsQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNHg9MHdb4_1UxK52okRtl88bYEy2w&sig2=44z4h1fP9jv36Bb9fAI9jg Cool! That not only shows the Jan thaw but, to a lesser extent, the "Grinch storm" period just before 12/25. Only one COOP, but Farmington's 120-yr records show a distinct mild-up during late Jan. Daily mean temsp slide fairly steadily to a low of 13.74 on Jan 17. From there they rise above 15 on 1/21 and stay there thru 1/28, ranging between 15.30 and 16.58 during those 8 days. Then the means drop to a second bottom at 13.85 on 1/31, before beginning a steady rise thru Feb and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 EC improved from awful 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pete Bouchard had 51 degrees for this Monday....torch on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pete Bouchard had 51 degrees for this Monday....torch on It may verify but he's a rip and reader.....as evidenced by his 12-18 after one euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It may verify but he's a rip and reader.....as evidenced by his 12-18 after one euro run. Haha true true, he usually puts some caveat at the end of his speech like "preliminary" "potential", all he does is give people something to talk about at the water cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 MJO has died. So it would appear the same general pattern we've been in will continue. GOA still with nice ridging so cold should generally be the rule across N tier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro ensembles insist on the thaw mid-month...they haven't waivered really. It breaks down the EPO ridge and we flood the CONUS with milder air. GEFS continue to not show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro ensembles insist on the thaw mid-month...they haven't waivered really. It breaks down the EPO ridge and we flood the CONUS with milder air. GEFS continue to not show this. I would guess the Euro package was keying on Mjo progressing and since it has died, perhaps the Gefs sniffed it out first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I would guess the Euro package was keying on Mjo progressing and since it has died, perhaps the Gefs sniffed it out first Actually the GEFS showed the MJO going into phase 7 which is what helps keeping the big ridging up there...the ECMWF showed the MJO going into the COD. Both still show this which is why there is a discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Actually the GEFS showed the MJO going into phase 7 which is what helps keeping the big ridging up there...the ECMWF showed the MJO going into the COD. Both still show this which is why there is a discrepancy. GGEM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NCEP re the cold signal during the next week ... "WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD, WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ON JANUARY 3-4 AND 5-8, WHICH COULDBRING TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20-30 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL. EARLY ON, DUE TO LOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/DEEP COLD AIR NEAR THEUS/CANADIAN BORDER UNDER THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE POLAR VORTEX, LOWS IN THE -10S AND -20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SECTIONS OF NEWENGLAND, WITH PLACES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY/WASHINGTON D.C. SEEING ONE OF THEIR COLDER DAYS OF THE PAST 20 YEARS. ASECOND SHOT OF COLDNESS INVADES EASTERN MONTANA, MINNESOTA, AND WISCONSIN ON THE 5-7TH, WITH LOWS AT OR BELOW -20F FORECAST. ASTHE SURFACE HIGH WEDGES IN, MODERATE UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST-FACING SLOPES FROM MONTANA ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS SUCH AS EMBARRASS DROP INTO THE -30S OR -40S F OVERNIGHT -- SIMILAR TOYESTERDAY. THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES COULD SEE THEIR COLDEST DAY AROUND THE 8TH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING THE MAINCAUSE UNDER A 1040+ HPA ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AREEXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON THE 8TH. OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA, IN GENERAL, THESE GLACIAL AIR MASSES APPEAR TO BE THECOLDEST SINCE 1993/1994, DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's too bad many of us in SNE won't have snow on the ground for next Wednesday - that is brutal, vodka cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's too bad many of us in SNE won't have snow on the ground for next Wednesday - that is brutal, vodka cold. Does it moderate any as it comes east? How are we looking for lows in CT on Sat morning? I thought I saw one model showing -20, is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Actually the GEFS showed the MJO going into phase 7 which is what helps keeping the big ridging up there...the ECMWF showed the MJO going into the COD. Both still show this which is why there is a discrepancy. Roundy MJO plots showing weakening in the Jan 1-10 period with some weak KW propagation over the IO/western MC. We then see redevelopment into the eastern IO after the 10th which sets off the warm up. MJO wave eventually moves towards the dateline around Jan 25th. RMM plots give a false weakening signal, when in reality we have a solid MJO wave in place, albeit not that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Any other snow threats over the next 10-14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's too bad many of us in SNE won't have snow on the ground for next Wednesday - that is brutal, vodka cold.all Euro? Let's see about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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