Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We are all feeling much better than yesterday. 2 snowstorms over the first 8 days of Jan and bitter bitter cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We are all feeling much better than yesterday. 2 snowstorms over the first 8 days of Jan and bitter bitter cold Reel it in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Reel it in a bit. Who are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles completely break down the EPO ridge within 2-3 days..but leave a vestige up in the Arctic ocean and the ridge tries to rebuild at the end of the run. My guess is the period in the middle where it breaks down is too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles completely break down the EPO ridge within 2-3 days..but leave a vestige up in the Arctic ocean and the ridge tries to rebuild at the end of the run. My guess is the period in the middle where it breaks down is too quick. The 00z yesterday run was awful lol. Then 12z did a 180 only to come back down a bit but not like yesterday. Just seems too unstable for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This pattern is a nightmare for me forecasting. For a few weeks I've held the idea of a warm up in the East around the 10th for mid-month and that is what the euro ens show, however, I dont trust it for one second given the hellish time its had at times breaking down Alaskan pattern in the long range (and the insane run-to-run volatility over the weekend)...I thought the MJO would support that warm up idea but I'm not so sure I see that panning out here, so meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This pattern is a nightmare for me forecasting. For a few weeks I've held the idea of a warm up in the East around the 10th for mid-month and that is what the euro ens show, however, I dont trust it for one second given the hellish time its had at times breaking down Alaskan pattern in the long range (and the insane run-to-run volatility over the weekend)...I thought the MJO would support that warm up idea but I'm not so sure I see that panning out here, so meh. It's sort of pushing east already. Roundy's stuff shows some nice subsidence in the IO towards mid month. I agree it may get volatile after the 10th...but as long as the PV is on our side and some higher heights exists near the arctic and AK...I have a hard time seeing this break down like the EC tries to do. The fact that it's wavered shows that it has no idea how to handle it. I know it is usually the better guidance, but it doesn't always have to be. Just anecdotal, but it seems the GEFS/GGEM combo has been pretty good. Also, the fast flow is gonna be tough to time these cold shots too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 How's it looking around the 11th. Pats at 8:15 that night. early P/C has some ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I was looking at the objective analogs on the ensembles and the cold signal for the CONUS is overwhelming. Not a single January on there was even close to average save maybe Jan 1951 which had a frigid N plains and NW but some offsetting warmth in the east. But the rest are just frigid. Composite shows near normal for the SE US to above normal in FL and below average from Northeast and then westward basically through the rest of the CONUS. We'll see how well this idea plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice little Clipper Re-developer on the 12z GFS for the 7th. Will have to see how that pans out based on where the PV ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And no relaxation in the pattern till mid-month verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And no relaxation in the pattern till mid-month verbatim. The hits keep coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Is there a better chance of a cold solution or a warm solution for the Jan 7th storm? Could we looking at some sort of secondary transfer and an icy scenario instead of Jan 1996 all over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Is there a better chance of a cold solution or a warm solution for the Jan 7th storm? Could we looking at some sort of secondary transfer and an icy scenario instead of Jan 1996 all over again? The antecedent cold is pushing it further SE than previously modeled...it could be an ugly HV runner though like the Euro shows, and perhaps even as far west as a lakes cutter....but we'll also have to watch for a secondary sfc reflection and an icier scenario. Still really far out to figure this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The antecedent cold is pushing it further SE than previously modeled...it could be an ugly HV runner though like the Euro shows, and perhaps even as far west as a lakes cutter....but we'll also have to watch for a secondary sfc reflection and an icier scenario. Still really far out to figure this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The antecedent cold is pushing it further SE than previously modeled...it could be an ugly HV runner though like the Euro shows, and perhaps even as far west as a lakes cutter....but we'll also have to watch for a secondary sfc reflection and an icier scenario. Still really far out to figure this one out.Yeah I mean Somehiw a 960 low over Stowe doesn't seem realistic given the overwhelming expanse of the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah I mean Somehiw a 960 low over Stowe doesn't seem realistic given the overwhelming expanse of the cold Remember when you had the same thought and then had 60Tds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Remember when you had the same thought and then had 60Tds? Umm..we didn't have nearly the same setup going into that. There wasn't Arctic air enveloping the nation..Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Umm..we didn't have nearly the same setup going into that. There wasn't Arctic air enveloping the nation..Not even close Arctic air doesn't mean squat in SNE if the s/w forcing is that strong. Again, I am not saying the euro is right..in fact I do not buy it...but your logic is flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Umm..we didn't have nearly the same setup going into that. There wasn't Arctic air enveloping the nation..Not even close You should check out the sequence from Jan 15-19, 1994...one fo the coldest airmasses to hit the US on record...and we had a low tracking over Logan11's fanny in that. Nobody really remembers it much because it was just a brief shot of mild air in an otherwise frigid pattern...but it can still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You should check out the sequence from Jan 15-19, 1994...one fo the coldest airmasses to hit the US on record...and we had a low tracking over Logan11's fanny in that. Nobody really remembers it much because it was just a brief shot of mild air in an otherwise frigid pattern...but it can still happen. i remember that--we went from 5 degrees to 45 degrees in like 3 hours-rained and then flash froze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i remember that--we went from 5 degrees to 45 degrees in like 3 hours-rained and then flash froze. I think we'd take that and run based upon what the Euro is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 As John McEnroe once said....YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A cutter for Kev on the ensemble. Looks like some cooler members though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A cutter for Kev on the ensemble. Looks like some cooler members though. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 AWT Leaning to drippage, but not as bad as euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Leaning to drippage, but not as bad as euro op. Leaning to ice..but not crippling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Leaning to ice..but not crippling Some might be leaning off the Tobin with the EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Some might be leaning off the Tobin with the EC ensembles. not worrying, JB says cold and snow forever so I'm going with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I mean the differences in the GEFS and EC are ridiculous..lol. Starts right after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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