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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Until the epo goes pos and the euro ens support it, it's garbage

 

Well if it cuts off like the pre-christmas torch it's certainly possible for a day or two. Relax, discussion does not = forecast.  I certainly could see it muted and I wouldn't expect the prolonged torch like the op has.

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why? what does it matter if we discuss it? who cares if we talk about warm temperatures on a *MODEL* run? it doesn't mean it's going to happen.

Well I think you misunderstood..Of course you can discuss it..but there are some folks on here that will think it's going to happen ...and you'll start seeing folks talking about a big torch coming..when in fact it's just 1 model run showing it..

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Well I think you misunderstood..Of course you can discuss it..but there are some folks on here that will think it's going to happen ...and you'll start seeing folks talking about a big torch coming..when in fact it's just 1 model run showing it..

 

Well that's not our fault if people are misinterpreting what we are discussing.  I almost hate talking about not so nice patterns because it's either misinterpreted or some post counteracts it with garbage logic.  We all are trying to be balanced, and it's not because we always have to be a debbie.

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Well I think you misunderstood..Of course you can discuss it..but there are some folks on here that will think it's going to happen ...and you'll start seeing folks talking about a big torch coming..when in fact it's just 1 model run showing it..

fair enough. 

 

i know you don't like it when there isn't dissent among us, but i agree with scooter and will - i wouldn't lean that warm right now. 

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it has support. too bad i can't post the euro ens past day 10

 

 

Euro ens past D10 doesn't support a huge torch though...that's just over-stating it. Maybe betweenm 300-324 hours it shows "potential" for a mild period due to a cutter. But not a 3-4 day furnace. The EPO remains heavily negative in this time which would make it hard for anything prolonged.

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I think you can also argue a seasonal pattern of strong cold, snow, melt down, repeat. Looking at today's progs can support this theory.

 

This is going to be long words for a few eyes ...but there's no other way to describe.   I have always thought of the MJO as a "conditionally constructive wave interference" as its forcing integrates with the surrounding hemispheric medium.

 

I have noticed over the years that when the WPO is negative, the MJO has trouble maturing through the phases 2 through 6.  When the WPO is positive, the opposite is true, and the MJO seems to have trouble strengthening in the phase 6.5, 7, 8 and 1.5.   If there is any truth to this it may be rooted in the wave-spacing from mid latitudes being either constructive or deconstructive as the MJO-related forcing attempts to propagate downstream across the Pacific (to re-iterate in a different way...)

 

The WPO has been dominating in the negative, and thus I am wondering if the MJO has been so muted as of late because of that interference.  Now that the MJO is attempting to emerge nearing phase 7, it just might be encounter less inhibition.   

 

Anyway, the point of all this is that the MJO appears to want to come out of its coma as it is modeled to rise toward phase 7.  That becomes a constructive wave interference and may reset the roulette wheel in the Pacific toward a more +PNA ...unlike what we have seen thus far this cold season.  The EPO, interestingly, still appears to be negative in the GEFs nightly means.  

 

If all that were not enough... the GEFs are also indicating a warm node appearing at high altitudes over NE Siberia.  We'll have to see if that is a prelude to an SSW.  

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Well I think you misunderstood..Of course you can discuss it..but there are some folks on here that will think it's going to happen ...and you'll start seeing folks talking about a big torch coming..when in fact it's just 1 model run showing it..

 

Its not unsimilar to seeing one run with a snowstorm and then folks jumping on that to think a snowstorm is coming... and you'll see folks talk about it when in fact its just one model run showing it.

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This is going to be long words for a few eyes ...but there's no other way to describe.   I have always thought of the MJO as a "conditionally constructive wave interference" as its forcing integrates with the surrounding hemispheric medium.

 

I have noticed over the years that when the WPO is negative, the MJO has trouble maturing through the phases 2 through 6.  When the WPO is positive, the opposite is true, and the MJO seems to have trouble strengthening in the phase 6.5, 7, 8 and 1.5.   If there is any truth to this it may be rooted in the wave-spacing from mid latitudes being either constructive or deconstructive as the MJO-related forcing attempts to propagate downstream across the Pacific (to re-iterate in a different way...)

 

The WPO has been dominating in the negative, and thus I am wondering if the MJO has been so muted as of late because of that interference.  Now that the MJO is attempting to emerge nearing phase 7, it just might be encounter less inhibition.   

 

Anyway, the point of all this is that the MJO appears to want to come out of its coma as it is modeled to rise toward phase 7.  That becomes a constructive wave interference and may reset the roulette wheel in the Pacific toward a more +PNA ...unlike what we have seen thus far this cold season.  The EPO, interestingly, still appears to be negative in the GEFs nightly means.  

 

If all that were not enough... the GEFs are also indicating a warm node appearing at high altitudes over NE Siberia.  We'll have to see if that is a prelude to an SSW.  

 

This has been pretty good. Notice where the forcing is. Maritime continent which argues for a bit more of a -PNA to start January and move towards mid month. This eventually is progged to move east. Recall these are stat based products. 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/wavemaps/weeks1to2.png

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