Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well it does in a way which is what we've been stating for a few days. But, I don't think anyone is taking this face value.Until the epo goes pos and the euro ens support it, it's garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Certainly something to be concerned with but the signal is there for a possible thaw in January, all that melting would send some overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Until the epo goes pos and the euro ens support it, it's garbage Well if it cuts off like the pre-christmas torch it's certainly possible for a day or two. Relax, discussion does not = forecast. I certainly could see it muted and I wouldn't expect the prolonged torch like the op has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I beg folks and urge peeps not to think the GFS is right. It's an op run 10 days out with no support why? what does it matter if we discuss it? who cares if we talk about warm temperatures on a *MODEL* run? it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 why? what does it matter if we discuss it? who cares if we talk about warm temperatures on a *MODEL* run? it doesn't mean it's going to happen. That time period has definitely been flagged on the models for some relaxing...hopefully not that much though. 60s in SNE. 70s PHI-DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 why? what does it matter if we discuss it? who cares if we talk about warm temperatures on a *MODEL* run? it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Well I think you misunderstood..Of course you can discuss it..but there are some folks on here that will think it's going to happen ...and you'll start seeing folks talking about a big torch coming..when in fact it's just 1 model run showing it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I beg folks and urge peeps not to think the GFS is right. It's an op run 10 days out with no supportit has support. too bad i can't post the euro ens past day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well I think you misunderstood..Of course you can discuss it..but there are some folks on here that will think it's going to happen ...and you'll start seeing folks talking about a big torch coming..when in fact it's just 1 model run showing it.. Well that's not our fault if people are misinterpreting what we are discussing. I almost hate talking about not so nice patterns because it's either misinterpreted or some post counteracts it with garbage logic. We all are trying to be balanced, and it's not because we always have to be a debbie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well I think you misunderstood..Of course you can discuss it..but there are some folks on here that will think it's going to happen ...and you'll start seeing folks talking about a big torch coming..when in fact it's just 1 model run showing it.. fair enough. i know you don't like it when there isn't dissent among us, but i agree with scooter and will - i wouldn't lean that warm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 it has support. too bad i can't post the euro ens past day 10 Euro ens past D10 doesn't support a huge torch though...that's just over-stating it. Maybe betweenm 300-324 hours it shows "potential" for a mild period due to a cutter. But not a 3-4 day furnace. The EPO remains heavily negative in this time which would make it hard for anything prolonged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The models are totally going to shift around from run to run I think. They are struggling what to do with the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 fair enough. i know you don't like it when there isn't dissent among us, but i agree with scooter and will - i wouldn't lean that warm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GFS also has -10 to -20 over SNE next Sat after storm moves out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think you can also argue a seasonal pattern of strong cold, snow, melt down, repeat. Looking at today's progs can support this theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think you can also argue a seasonal pattern of strong cold, snow, melt down, repeat. Looking at today's progs can support this theory. This is going to be long words for a few eyes ...but there's no other way to describe. I have always thought of the MJO as a "conditionally constructive wave interference" as its forcing integrates with the surrounding hemispheric medium. I have noticed over the years that when the WPO is negative, the MJO has trouble maturing through the phases 2 through 6. When the WPO is positive, the opposite is true, and the MJO seems to have trouble strengthening in the phase 6.5, 7, 8 and 1.5. If there is any truth to this it may be rooted in the wave-spacing from mid latitudes being either constructive or deconstructive as the MJO-related forcing attempts to propagate downstream across the Pacific (to re-iterate in a different way...) The WPO has been dominating in the negative, and thus I am wondering if the MJO has been so muted as of late because of that interference. Now that the MJO is attempting to emerge nearing phase 7, it just might be encounter less inhibition. Anyway, the point of all this is that the MJO appears to want to come out of its coma as it is modeled to rise toward phase 7. That becomes a constructive wave interference and may reset the roulette wheel in the Pacific toward a more +PNA ...unlike what we have seen thus far this cold season. The EPO, interestingly, still appears to be negative in the GEFs nightly means. If all that were not enough... the GEFs are also indicating a warm node appearing at high altitudes over NE Siberia. We'll have to see if that is a prelude to an SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well I think you misunderstood..Of course you can discuss it..but there are some folks on here that will think it's going to happen ...and you'll start seeing folks talking about a big torch coming..when in fact it's just 1 model run showing it.. Its not unsimilar to seeing one run with a snowstorm and then folks jumping on that to think a snowstorm is coming... and you'll see folks talk about it when in fact its just one model run showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This is going to be long words for a few eyes ...but there's no other way to describe. I have always thought of the MJO as a "conditionally constructive wave interference" as its forcing integrates with the surrounding hemispheric medium. I have noticed over the years that when the WPO is negative, the MJO has trouble maturing through the phases 2 through 6. When the WPO is positive, the opposite is true, and the MJO seems to have trouble strengthening in the phase 6.5, 7, 8 and 1.5. If there is any truth to this it may be rooted in the wave-spacing from mid latitudes being either constructive or deconstructive as the MJO-related forcing attempts to propagate downstream across the Pacific (to re-iterate in a different way...) The WPO has been dominating in the negative, and thus I am wondering if the MJO has been so muted as of late because of that interference. Now that the MJO is attempting to emerge nearing phase 7, it just might be encounter less inhibition. Anyway, the point of all this is that the MJO appears to want to come out of its coma as it is modeled to rise toward phase 7. That becomes a constructive wave interference and may reset the roulette wheel in the Pacific toward a more +PNA ...unlike what we have seen thus far this cold season. The EPO, interestingly, still appears to be negative in the GEFs nightly means. If all that were not enough... the GEFs are also indicating a warm node appearing at high altitudes over NE Siberia. We'll have to see if that is a prelude to an SSW. This has been pretty good. Notice where the forcing is. Maritime continent which argues for a bit more of a -PNA to start January and move towards mid month. This eventually is progged to move east. Recall these are stat based products. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/wavemaps/weeks1to2.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 phase seven is a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 HOLY 12Z EURO. AND IT'S ONLY 144 HOURS OUT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 phase seven is a win It's like the best of all worlds if it is winter that one is after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 So glad and relieved that the GFS LR is being downplayed by many of the key players...shew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Look at how out of phase the Euro ensemble mean is compared to the operational run for the extended.... impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Look at how out of phase the Euro ensemble mean is compared to the operational run for the extended.... impressive. And this is also way out of phase with GEFS so hopefully the euro ensembles are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 And this is also way out of phase with GEFS so hopefully the euro ensembles are right. I won"t even say what that ens look is because it upsets some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I won"t even say what that ens look is because it upsets some. Not the 11-15 day. It's an ok look though. But as we have stated..I think models are going to struggle in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Not the 11-15 day. It's an ok look though. But as we have stated..I think models are going to struggle in the west. Theres your PV I was referencing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The euro ensembles lose the EPO and become a disaster. Let's hope they are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The euro ensembles lose the EPO and become a disaster. Let's hope they are wrong. Thankfully they've done that several times since November and been wrong every time. No worries..yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Thankfully they've done that several times since November and been wrong every time. No worries..yet The GEFS were getting uglier too. Just something to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The GEFS were getting uglier too. Just something to watch out for. Terrible news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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