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January 2014 pattern discussion

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

I actually think the chances of a more significant storm are elevated with a +PNA...however, we aren't going to have Atlantic blocking, so people shouldn't be expecting a 36 hour monster KU (not that they should ever expect that weeks out).

Very true. It would be a quick hitter, but as you stated with the +Pna there is a chance.

I think your area has a chance to clean up in a patten like this. At least there is probably going to be chances for most, which in the end is all anyone can ask for

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I do not speak for the Euro cluster, but the GFS members' mean lost the +PNA at both agencies, per last nights run for that particular index.  

 

Not sure what is going on /why that did that, but 4 or 5 days of +PNA prognostic was just blithely wiped out and what has emerged ...or rather "re"-emerged, is a jump back to the type of teleconnector layout we had spanning much of the last 45 days; which is to say, -PNA/-EPO/+NAO.  The AO is still trying to go negative way out in time, but the spread has returned among the members (spread means less skill).

 

What that means for specific events ...not sure.  I do not believe, however, that we can count on orderly timing, and in fact ... many of the systems we were tentatively in the planning stages (post this Sunday's ...whatever in the hell it does) are going to have to be in question.  

 

Having said that, if the Euro ensembles are less deviated from what has been going on over the last week, perhaps then we can hold off on the GFS cluster, but for now, this is factually what has evolved in the teleconnectors from the American side since yesterday. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I do not speak for the Euro cluster, but the GFS members' mean lost the +PNA at both agencies, per last nights run for that particular index.

 

Not sure what is going on /why that did that, but 4 or 5 days of +PNA prognostic was just blithely wiped out and what has emerged ...or rather "re"-emerged, is a jump back to the type of teleconnector layout we had spanning much of the last 45 days; which is to say, -PNA/-EPO/+NAO.  The AO is still trying to go negative way out in time, but the spread has returned among the members (spread means less skill).

 

What that means for specific events ...not sure.  I do not believe, however, that we can count on orderly timing, and in fact ... many of the systems we were tentatively in the planning stages (post this Sunday's ...whatever in the hell it does) are going to have to be in question.  

 

Having said that, if the Euro ensembles are less deviated from what has been going on over the last week, perhaps then we can hold off on the GFS cluster, but for now, this is factually what has evolved in the teleconnectors from the American side since yesterday. 

 

It caved to the EC regarding retrogression. It tries to really cool off the west.

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

i'd prefer something closer to the euro evolution with the northern stream just remaining dominant and separate and allowing for a nice clipper and reinforcing cold shot.

when the euro and gfs are worlds apart it's better to side with the euro. this gfs run is the start of the cave
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It caved to the EC regarding retrogression. It tries to really cool off the west.

 

The whole cluster though, en masse like that ... so much weight to move all at once like that is a pretty serious indictment on performance pointed at the entire GEFs product suite.  

 

that is a butt-sore suck fest

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The whole cluster though, en masse like that ... so much weight to move all at once like that is a pretty serious indictment on performance pointed at the entire GEFs product suite.  

 

that is a butt-sore suck fest

 

It looked ok on the GEFS and IMHO..we are going to see some big swings in models between 12z and 00z over the next few days.  The pattern is going to try and reshuffle with the MJO pushing east, but then maybe split flow and STJ. With a +NAO...I would not be shocked if models struggle. This just has that look to me.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

when the euro and gfs are worlds apart it's better to side with the euro. this gfs run is the start of the cave

i guess i feel the same to some degree - though by the same token any time there's an ULL swirling over the SW or Mexico/Texas or just lots of energy digging down the front-range...any little pocket of vorticity ejecting out into the flow will just cause models to go nuts...so i'm just in wait and see mode. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Cisco's take is interesting... He's pretty much negating the GEFs camp, but that's also pretty typical of him..

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1053 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013

VALID 12Z MON DEC 30 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 03 2014


":...WINTRY PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...

USED THE 00Z/27 ECMWF FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-5, SWITCHING TO THE 00Z/27 ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO MITIGATE THE
INCREASING SPREAD IN DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AT THAT TIME RANGE. THE 00Z/27 AND 06Z/27 MODEL CYCLES SAW A REVERSAL IN POSITIONS OF
THE GFS CAMP VERSUS THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FROM YESTERDAY, WITH THE GFS WARMING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY DAY 6 AND THE ECMWF AND
ECENS MEAN COOLING THE SAME REGION. TRIED TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITH THE MANUAL CHOICES FROM YESTERDAY. BESIDES THE NEXT ARCTIC
ONSLAUGHT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, IT APPEARS AS IF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BE MORE VULNERABLE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW DAYS 6 AND 7. ROUGHLY TWENTY PERCENT OF THE 00Z/27 ECENS MEMBERS INDICATE BETTER THAN A HALF-INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THAT REGION. A COUPLE MEMBERS DEPICT A MAJOR SNOWSTORM. FOR NOW, WILL REFLECT A MODEST QUARTER-INCH FOR THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE 00Z/28 DAYS 6-7 QPF...."

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Wtf? Seriously that GFS evolution is in fact right out of his play book.

And it won't be the final one either.  93-94 is reserved for special years, thus far this one it is not.

No doubt. But I remind you we are neck and neck to date snow wise and the pattern locked in after New Years.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

i guess i feel the same to some degree - though by the same token any time there's an ULL swirling over the SW or Mexico/Texas or just lots of energy digging down the front-range...any little pocket of vorticity ejecting out into the flow will just cause models to go nuts...so i'm just in wait and see mode. 

 

But the signal is STRONG.  :whistle:

We'll be tracking something for next week, where it ends up is anyone's guess at this point.  Could be a hit, could be a miss, could be wet, could be white.

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