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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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What's your take in the weeklies as described above?

 

Well the weeklies have been beyond horrible this year. Horrible. However, it's possible they may be onto something, but I will say this again. I still don't see a huge reason why this has to break down. It actually looked like week 4 was trying to reload again.  The vortex is staying in Canada and the AK area for now still has EPO ridging. Now the EC does try to weaken it..but this has happened again and again and they have been wrong. At this point, I am at the "prove it to me" stage.  Show me the reason why we may see a change other than a brief retrogression.

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Well the weeklies have been beyond horrible this year. Horrible. However, it's possible they may be onto something, but I will say this again. I still don't see a huge reason why this has to break down. It actually looked like week 4 was trying to reload again.  The vortex is staying in Canada and the AK area for now still has EPO ridging. Now the EC does try to weaken it..but this has happened again and again and they have been wrong. At this point, I am at the "prove it to me" stage.  Show me the reason why we may see a change other than a brief retrogression.

Thanks for the explanation. You're always great at answering all of our questions and it is much appreciated.

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Thanks for the explanation. You're always great at answering all of our questions and it is much appreciated.

 

No problem. Basically, what you may have is a split flow where the ridge exists near AK, but stronger PAC Jet underneath it. So when this happens your storm chances increase, but so do temps. It's really tough to see how this goes. I still think I side with persistence to a point...but the data also shouldn't be ignored.

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This would be huge for CNE/NNE, lol.

 

We wouldn't complain.  Nice to not see it modeled out near Bermuda though.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_namer_171_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

It would be a very ugly sight in SNE if Sunday night and 1/2 both ended up as rainers.  Especially if we indeed are headed toward a relaxation of the cold. 

 

Eric would need to post his abyss dive gif.

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It would be a very ugly sight in SNE if Sunday night and 1/2 both ended up as rainers.  Especially if we indeed are headed toward a relaxation of the cold. 

 

Eric would need to post his abyss dive gif.

 

Easy with the doomsday posts. For some reason the board goes into self destrucitve mode if someone posts something they don't want to hear.

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Easy with the doomsday posts. For some reason the board goes into self destrucitve mode if someone posts something they don't want to hear.

 

Not a doomsday post at all--simply a 'what if' scenario that would descend on the SNE psyche if we had another instance of rain sandwiched between slices of wintery chill.  We've had it already and another seems to be in cards for Sunday night. 

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Not a doomsday post at all--simply a 'what if' scenario that would descend on the SNE psyche if we had another instance of rain sandwiched between slices of wintery chill.  We've had it already and another seems to be in cards for Sunday night. 

 

Patterns don't always lock in for weeks and weeks. Even the torch winters have periods that allow for cold and snow. Any "relaxation" looks temporary as of now.

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Not a doomsday post at all--simply a 'what if' scenario that would descend on the SNE psyche if we had another instance of rain sandwiched between slices of wintery chill.  We've had it already and another seems to be in cards for Sunday night.

Well he posted one picture of a run that gives sne a lot of snow before taint so verbatim it's not as you say. Also, I'm skeptical of a big wound up system.

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Not a doomsday post at all--simply a 'what if' scenario that would descend on the SNE psyche if we had another instance of rain sandwiched between slices of wintery chill.  We've had it already and another seems to be in cards for Sunday night.

Re bolder...is that true? Didn't we have a great snow week followed by a melt down?

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I'm quite optimistic with this pattern...if you are setting expectations of 40 consecutive days with no mild spells and 50 inches of snow, then you might be disappointed, but the bottom line is the cold is on our side of the pole, the EPO looks to stay negative and we're going to have storm chances in this pattern with the +NAO trying to battle the +PNA.

 

That's a pretty nice look to me.

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I'm quite optimistic with this pattern...if you are setting expectations of 40 consecutive days with no mild spells and 50 inches of snow, then you might be disappointed, but the bottom line is the cold is on our side of the pole, the EPO looks to stay negative and we're going to have storm chances in this pattern with the +NAO trying to battle the +PNA.

That's a pretty nice look to me.

I was hoping 37 consecutive days and 45 inches of snow.
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I was hoping 37 consecutive days and 45 inches of snow. Seriously, so many times it seems have we seen a nice start in Dec. only for things to go marginal at best going into Jan/Feb/march. Dec 07 would be an example at least for the coast. I know though you've shown many stats that show otherwise.

 

There really isn't any marginal at best opinion right now.

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We've nicked and dimed so far in sne. I don't think that really changes. Well get small cold events, and probably struggle in the larger ones

Not saying we don't snow, but I don't think it's pretty. And were probably going to have some serious cold at points with possibly not much snow to show.

 

 

I actually think the chances of a more significant storm are elevated with a +PNA...however, we aren't going to have Atlantic blocking, so people shouldn't be expecting a 36 hour monster KU (not that they should ever expect that weeks out).

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