CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 What's your take in the weeklies as described above? Well the weeklies have been beyond horrible this year. Horrible. However, it's possible they may be onto something, but I will say this again. I still don't see a huge reason why this has to break down. It actually looked like week 4 was trying to reload again. The vortex is staying in Canada and the AK area for now still has EPO ridging. Now the EC does try to weaken it..but this has happened again and again and they have been wrong. At this point, I am at the "prove it to me" stage. Show me the reason why we may see a change other than a brief retrogression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Well the weeklies have been beyond horrible this year. Horrible. However, it's possible they may be onto something, but I will say this again. I still don't see a huge reason why this has to break down. It actually looked like week 4 was trying to reload again. The vortex is staying in Canada and the AK area for now still has EPO ridging. Now the EC does try to weaken it..but this has happened again and again and they have been wrong. At this point, I am at the "prove it to me" stage. Show me the reason why we may see a change other than a brief retrogression. Thanks for the explanation. You're always great at answering all of our questions and it is much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Breaking down the long range GEFS you can surmise we keep the gradient pattern....only we ride closer to the line which Induces higher rik of warmth a times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 6Z looked better...come back from the ledge... This would be huge for CNE/NNE, lol. We wouldn't complain. Nice to not see it modeled out near Bermuda though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Thanks for the explanation. You're always great at answering all of our questions and it is much appreciated. No problem. Basically, what you may have is a split flow where the ridge exists near AK, but stronger PAC Jet underneath it. So when this happens your storm chances increase, but so do temps. It's really tough to see how this goes. I still think I side with persistence to a point...but the data also shouldn't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 This would be huge for CNE/NNE, lol. We wouldn't complain. Nice to not see it modeled out near Bermuda though. gfs_namer_171_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif It would be a very ugly sight in SNE if Sunday night and 1/2 both ended up as rainers. Especially if we indeed are headed toward a relaxation of the cold. Eric would need to post his abyss dive gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It would be a very ugly sight in SNE if Sunday night and 1/2 both ended up as rainers. Especially if we indeed are headed toward a relaxation of the cold. Eric would need to post his abyss dive gif. Easy with the doomsday posts. For some reason the board goes into self destrucitve mode if someone posts something they don't want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I mean what would you want to have. Cold and dry or the chances of more storms. More precip inherently implies closer thermal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Easy with the doomsday posts. For some reason the board goes into self destrucitve mode if someone posts something they don't want to hear. Not a doomsday post at all--simply a 'what if' scenario that would descend on the SNE psyche if we had another instance of rain sandwiched between slices of wintery chill. We've had it already and another seems to be in cards for Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Not a doomsday post at all--simply a 'what if' scenario that would descend on the SNE psyche if we had another instance of rain sandwiched between slices of wintery chill. We've had it already and another seems to be in cards for Sunday night. Patterns don't always lock in for weeks and weeks. Even the torch winters have periods that allow for cold and snow. Any "relaxation" looks temporary as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Not a doomsday post at all--simply a 'what if' scenario that would descend on the SNE psyche if we had another instance of rain sandwiched between slices of wintery chill. We've had it already and another seems to be in cards for Sunday night. Well he posted one picture of a run that gives sne a lot of snow before taint so verbatim it's not as you say. Also, I'm skeptical of a big wound up system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Not a doomsday post at all--simply a 'what if' scenario that would descend on the SNE psyche if we had another instance of rain sandwiched between slices of wintery chill. We've had it already and another seems to be in cards for Sunday night. Re bolder...is that true? Didn't we have a great snow week followed by a melt down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Re bolder...is that true? Didn't we have a great snow week followed by a melt down? He's going to get some snow Sunday Night too. He needs to ease off the caffeine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 He's going to get some snow Sunday Night too. He needs to ease off the caffeine. His climo is NNE but his psyche is SE coastal CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 His climo is NNE but his psyche is SE coastal CT. I may vote to banish his posting in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The retrogression is certainly possible as things reshuffle. It might induce a tough period, and then we'll see what happens. We've seen models **** the bed only to come back. Part of me also says to go with persistence. January thaw before the Atlantic fully joins the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 January thaw before the Atlantic fully joins the party Pretty sure the Atlantic will not join the party. The Arctic might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Pretty sure the Atlantic will not join the party. The Arctic might. The Atlantic is giving us the middle finger but the pacific is saying,,,,,I'm bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The Atlantic is giving us the middle finger but the pacific is saying,,,,,I'm bigger. Pretty much. But, the Atlantic can sucker punch the Pacific once in awhile too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'm quite optimistic with this pattern...if you are setting expectations of 40 consecutive days with no mild spells and 50 inches of snow, then you might be disappointed, but the bottom line is the cold is on our side of the pole, the EPO looks to stay negative and we're going to have storm chances in this pattern with the +NAO trying to battle the +PNA. That's a pretty nice look to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'm quite optimistic with this pattern...if you are setting expectations of 40 consecutive days with no mild spells and 50 inches of snow, then you might be disappointed, but the bottom line is the cold is on our side of the pole, the EPO looks to stay negative and we're going to have storm chances in this pattern with the +NAO trying to battle the +PNA. That's a pretty nice look to me. I was hoping 37 consecutive days and 45 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I was hoping 37 consecutive days and 45 inches of snow. Seriously, so many times it seems have we seen a nice start in Dec. only for things to go marginal at best going into Jan/Feb/march. Dec 07 would be an example at least for the coast. I know though you've shown many stats that show otherwise. There really isn't any marginal at best opinion right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The storm for the 2-4th looks amazing, EURO is a little lost, expected with a fast northern stream flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The storm for the 2-4th looks amazing, EURO is a little lost, expected with a fast northern stream flow. Looked like a whopper on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Should we be worried about cold ab dry in the pattern? Our problem down here has been holding the cold air, nothing to block it from leaving. The last few op runs of the euro have been pretty meh on storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Should we be worried about cold ab dry in the pattern? Our problem down here has been holding the cold air, nothing to block it from leaving. The last few op runs of the euro have been pretty meh on storm chances. Cold and dry is not my concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Cold and dry is not my concern. I'm pretty confident this will be an active pattern. The analogs and forecast teleconnections suggest plenty of storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'm pretty confident this will be an active pattern. The analogs and forecast teleconnections suggest plenty of storminess. Yeah maybe we are wrong, but QPF isn't my concern with this. In fact if we get split flow...QPF is certainly not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 We've nicked and dimed so far in sne. I don't think that really changes. Well get small cold events, and probably struggle in the larger ones Not saying we don't snow, but I don't think it's pretty. And were probably going to have some serious cold at points with possibly not much snow to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 We've nicked and dimed so far in sne. I don't think that really changes. Well get small cold events, and probably struggle in the larger ones Not saying we don't snow, but I don't think it's pretty. And were probably going to have some serious cold at points with possibly not much snow to show. I actually think the chances of a more significant storm are elevated with a +PNA...however, we aren't going to have Atlantic blocking, so people shouldn't be expecting a 36 hour monster KU (not that they should ever expect that weeks out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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