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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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As long as we are not banging plus numbers with huge SE ridges and LP in eastern Canada its good enough for me. I am not worried. sure we may per climo get a cutter or two but I am pretty gung ho going forward.

 

So far, there is one feature that is working for me. Aside from a random lobe or two that tries to temporarily beat down the EPO, notice the Kamchatka trough. As long as that trough axis extends south, it will naturally cause a downstream ridge to pop near AK. I think this has been one of the most stable features in the whole northern Hemisphere since November.

 

But, where it might get dicey is with any retrogression and cold shot pushing down from the high plains. That may make the storm track a bit iffy IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN.

 

Overall though...I rate this pattern a 7-8 out of 10. JMHO. 5 being near normal temps and snow.

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Don't get me wrong, I'm optimistic.  But I could see how we could haev things not work out so great as well.

 

Well we stated how things can go south...but just set the bar at modest levels. Some of those analogs are tasty for a reason.  If we get some split flow near mid month like the euro ensembles suggest...Oy vey at the possibilties.

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Well we stated how things can go south...but just set the bar at modest levels. Some of those analogs are tasty for a reason.  If we get some split flow near mid month like the euro ensembles suggest...Oy vey at the possibilties.

I am so tempted to say something but I will refrain but Jerry your man would be proud.

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I am so tempted to say something but I will refrain but Jerry your man would be proud.

 

LOL, well that year is the top of the food chain so I can't go there.  It all comes down to timing and nuances. Put it this way, I like what I see..but if it were to pan out in a not so great manner...I wouldn't be shocked.  7-8 out of 10.

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ec ens look nice.

 

i agree with what scooter said earlier re: op runs vs ensembles. sometimes there are hints in there. the ensembles will rarely pick it up. doesn't mean the op runs are dead on balls accurate by any means but something to pay attention to going forward.

 

sort of like seeing lots of fantasy coastals on a long-range GFS run...when that happens, the model, as a whole, is probably on to something. 

 

that's the only thing i don't like about the last few runs op runs of the euro and some of the GFS runs.

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ec ens look nice.

 

i agree with what scooter said earlier re: op runs vs ensembles. sometimes there are hints in there. the ensembles will rarely pick it up. doesn't mean the op runs are dead on balls accurate by any means but something to pay attention to going forward.

 

sort of like seeing lots of fantasy coastals on a long-range GFS run...when that happens, the model, as a whole, is probably on to something. 

 

that's the only thing i don't like about the last few runs op runs of the euro and some of the GFS runs.

 

The GFS was trying with these weird cutoffs...probably can toss that slow moving nonsense. But, I took it as a hint of a cutter or maybe SWFE. Sometimes the GFS loves to plow lows into NY state without any pushback. It's a slippery slope with the op runs because nobody is saying that you should run with it....but lately they've hinted at the pattern.

I still think the overall pattern is to keep ridging near AK. I see nothing to break that down..if anything the MJO argues for even more stability. One thing is for sure...those polar bears are free to roam the Hudson Bay for food. You won't see a pic of a polar bear floating away on a piece of ice with Sarah McLachlan playing in the background. LOL.

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The GFS was trying with these weird cutoffs...probably can toss that slow moving nonsense. But, I took it as a hint of a cutter or maybe SWFE. Sometimes the GFS loves to plow lows into NY state without any pushback. It's a slippery slope with the op runs because nobody is saying that you should run with it....but lately they've hinted at the pattern.

I still think the overall pattern is to keep ridging near AK. I see nothing to break that down..if anything the MJO argues for even more stability. One thing is for sure...those polar bears are free to roam the Hudson Bay for food. You won't see a pic of a polar bear floating away on a piece of ice with Sarah McLachlan playing in the background. LOL.

that's an almost certainty. ens have -20C 850s into SNE - almost to the south coast of SNE - at 144 hours...that's a strong signal. :lol:

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Eastern Alaska?

`

Yeah I was noticing the 850mb initialization of the 18z up 'round dem dar parts and it prompted me to check...  Jesus.  And what's kind of sorta funny there is the way they are just so blasse and oh-by-the-way about it.   Just another day in paradise I suppose 

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How are the weeklies looking? Any signs of a -NAO? weeklhies are issued Thurs. corrct?

General H5 Anomaly Pattern

Week 1: +PNA/+NAO/-AO

Week 2: +PNA/+NAO/-AO

Week 3: +NAO/Ridge over New England/Split Flow off West Coast

Week 4: +NAO/Ridge over New England/Split Flow off West Coast

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General H5 Anomaly Pattern

Week 1: +PNA/+NAO/-AO

Week 2: +PNA/+NAO/-AO

Week 3: +NAO/Ridge over New England/Split Flow off West Coast

Week 4: +NAO/Ridge over New England/Split Flow off West Coast

Thx. seems to support the ugly depiction of the 384 GFS and sounds like we would finally lose the Pacific which is unthinkable.

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Looking to me more and more that we'd best make out well 1/1-7 because we may go through about a week of warmth thereafter before a reload. It hasn't occurred yet but it it comes out as modeled we trash the unmentionable analog.

 

I've wrestled with this. It's becoming tough to ignore, but I've seen models try to break it down previously only to have persistence FTW. In the end, it may be a classic defecation amid a good stretch. We've all had that happen before.

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I've wrestled with this. It's becoming tough to ignore, but I've seen models try to break it down previously only to have persistence FTW. In the end, it may be a classic defecation amid a good stretch. We've all had that happen before.

What's your take in the weeklies as described above?

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