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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Don't know where to ask this, so asking here... where can I find a map of the location abbreviations used (ORH, ACK etc.) so I can better fix the location and movement of the weather?   Thanks, and sorry for the dumb question. 

 

Never mind, I'm an idiot.  Those are airport codes. 

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Didnt say they did but we went from every met saying full steam ahead , and Jan looks great to now worries about cod then rain then cold which yes you always threw a flag on as possible. Hell even Forky was looking at pics of naked women

i don't know if i'd go so far as to say cod, but yeah fish are always possible in this pattern.

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Didnt say they did but we went from every met saying full steam ahead , and Jan looks great to now worries about cod then rain then cold which yes you always threw a flag on as possible. Hell even Forky was looking at pics of naked women

 

Dude, it does look pretty good. What more do you want? Nobody knows the final outcome. Dec 2007 at first looked lousy and then 30" later....you get what I mean. It's impossible to get specific. Just set the bar on getting some good cold and modest snow. You are in for trouble if you always set the bar high.

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Dude, it does look pretty good. What more do you want? Nobody knows the final outcome. Dec 2007 at first looked lousy and then 30" later....you get what I mean. It's impossible to get specific. Just set the bar on getting some good cold and modest snow. You are in for trouble if you always set the bar high.

Well you know me..I always set the bar high..and when it crashes..I usually get hurt..

 

irregardless..i pick it up and move on..high again

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Well you know me..I always set the bar high..and when it crashes..I usually get hurt..

 

irregardless..i pick it up and move on..high again

 

Well then I don't feel bad. That's a bad way of handling weather. Overall January looks fine. It will not be wire to wire cold and snow...it never is.

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I think it COULD be..not def..but COULD

 

It will relax at some point I think. I see signs of maybe some retrogression which actually opens up the door for storms, but also taint. Then we might reload again. The key to this pattern are op runs and the ensemble height patterns. What do I mean by that? Well, basically in a pattern like this the operational runs will sniff out the potential details like cold and storm tracks. Of course we all know the caveats of the operational runs as you go out in time, but they do hint at the pattern behavior moreso than some think. The ensemble means will get smoothed out. Timing of storms from different members will dampen out the signal...We've seen this happen since November. It's one of those things where you look at the actual height pattern and it does not change but the models will completely lose the anomaly and go too cold or too warm. Be warned about that. Of course the op runs might be wrong and perhaps the ensembles are onto something when things weaken...but these are things that I have noticed.

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Don't know what Jerry is talking about on GEFS but mean never rises above -3 at 850 after the weekend.

 

 

-3C is actually a reasonable mild signal if its out into January...that's cold climo for us...like -7C is climo along the pike by 1/10.

 

 

 

Euro ensembles are a lot colder though today than GEFS.

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While it's not cold per se, notice that HP placement on the mean at the end of the GEFS run. If that were to happen...I wouldn't worry.

As long as we are not banging plus numbers with huge SE ridges and LP in eastern Canada its good enough for me. I am not worried. sure we may per climo get a cutter or two but I am pretty gung ho going forward.

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