Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I think you need to read it again. Nobody cancelled anything.Didnt say they did but we went from every met saying full steam ahead , and Jan looks great to now worries about cod then rain then cold which yes you always threw a flag on as possible. Hell even Forky was looking at pics of naked women Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Didnt say they did but we went from every met saying full steam ahead , and Jan looks great to now worries about cod then rain then cold which yes you always threw a flag on as possible. Hell even Forky was looking at pics of naked womenKev chill the hell down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Don't know where to ask this, so asking here... where can I find a map of the location abbreviations used (ORH, ACK etc.) so I can better fix the location and movement of the weather? Thanks, and sorry for the dumb question. Never mind, I'm an idiot. Those are airport codes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Kev chill the hell down.Where are your pics from the Icestorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Didnt say they did but we went from every met saying full steam ahead , and Jan looks great to now worries about cod then rain then cold which yes you always threw a flag on as possible. Hell even Forky was looking at pics of naked women i don't know if i'd go so far as to say cod, but yeah fish are always possible in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 i don't know if i'd go so far as to say cod, but yeah fish are always possible in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Didnt say they did but we went from every met saying full steam ahead , and Jan looks great to now worries about cod then rain then cold which yes you always threw a flag on as possible. Hell even Forky was looking at pics of naked women Dude, it does look pretty good. What more do you want? Nobody knows the final outcome. Dec 2007 at first looked lousy and then 30" later....you get what I mean. It's impossible to get specific. Just set the bar on getting some good cold and modest snow. You are in for trouble if you always set the bar high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Man sometimes these threads are a trouser tent for people like Dr Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Pattern looks favorable but there are a few flags. It's never a slam dunk it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Dude, it does look pretty good. What more do you want? Nobody knows the final outcome. Dec 2007 at first looked lousy and then 30" later....you get what I mean. It's impossible to get specific. Just set the bar on getting some good cold and modest snow. You are in for trouble if you always set the bar high. Well you know me..I always set the bar high..and when it crashes..I usually get hurt.. irregardless..i pick it up and move on..high again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 emotional rollercoaster lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Well you know me..I always set the bar high..and when it crashes..I usually get hurt.. irregardless..i pick it up and move on..high again Well then I don't feel bad. That's a bad way of handling weather. Overall January looks fine. It will not be wire to wire cold and snow...it never is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Well then I don't feel bad. That's a bad way of handling weather. Overall January looks fine. It will not be wire to wire cold and snow...it never is. I think it COULD be..not def..but COULD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I think it COULD be..not def..but COULD It will relax at some point I think. I see signs of maybe some retrogression which actually opens up the door for storms, but also taint. Then we might reload again. The key to this pattern are op runs and the ensemble height patterns. What do I mean by that? Well, basically in a pattern like this the operational runs will sniff out the potential details like cold and storm tracks. Of course we all know the caveats of the operational runs as you go out in time, but they do hint at the pattern behavior moreso than some think. The ensemble means will get smoothed out. Timing of storms from different members will dampen out the signal...We've seen this happen since November. It's one of those things where you look at the actual height pattern and it does not change but the models will completely lose the anomaly and go too cold or too warm. Be warned about that. Of course the op runs might be wrong and perhaps the ensembles are onto something when things weaken...but these are things that I have noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Where are your pics from the Icestorm?Go look in the lakes forum. I didn't post pics cuz my power went out but other Toronto posters posted some nice pics. Go check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Euro ensembles still showing potential around 1/3. I wouldn't rule out clipper for NYE...but its looked less impressive today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Good lord that is a cold New Years. That is also a decent signal for 1/3 like Will said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Pattern looks favorable but there are a few flags. It's never a slam dunk it seems. Just remember how boring and dry the posts were for after Christmas two days a go. Many many posts about a 6-10 day boring period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Don't know what Jerry is talking about on GEFS but mean never rises above -3 at 850 after the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Don't know what Jerry is talking about on GEFS but mean never rises above -3 at 850 after the weekend. He was referring to the end of the run, but I thought it looked good for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 It's like an angle heard Kevin's cries and created the 12z Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 He was referring to the end of the run, but I thought it looked good for storms. I thought so too. plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Don't know what Jerry is talking about on GEFS but mean never rises above -3 at 850 after the weekend. -3C is actually a reasonable mild signal if its out into January...that's cold climo for us...like -7C is climo along the pike by 1/10. Euro ensembles are a lot colder though today than GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I thought so too. plenty cold While it's not cold per se, notice that HP placement on the mean at the end of the GEFS run. If that were to happen...I wouldn't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Don't know what Jerry is talking about on GEFS but mean never rises above -3 at 850 after the weekend. This ht anomaly pattern is crappy but thankfully Euro ensembles are better. Hopefully they will prevail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 While it's not cold per se, notice that HP placement on the mean at the end of the GEFS run. If that were to happen...I wouldn't worry. As long as we are not banging plus numbers with huge SE ridges and LP in eastern Canada its good enough for me. I am not worried. sure we may per climo get a cutter or two but I am pretty gung ho going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Jerry you also don't want cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 This ht anomaly pattern is crappy but thankfully Euro ensembles are better. Hopefully they will prevail. f384.gif 384? meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Jerry you also don't want cold and dry. Bingo winner winner chicken dinner, bang us some 540 heights with below zero 850s with NE flow all day every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Don't get me wrong, I'm optimistic. But I could see how we could haev things not work out so great as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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