Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:27 PM, CoastalWx said: Jesus raging +PTO on the EC ensembles. Didn"t think we would see that cold again, thought the last Arctic blast was the main show, now it appears it wasn't, more prolonged too. man I hope I get some deep snow cover before that settles in. PFs soccer ponds will be frozen until May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said: No they are actually well west of the op., Saturday is going to be a snowy day East and north of NYC Not really actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:31 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah precip is probably 0.30-0.35 to ORH and maybe half inch or just shy in extreme eastern MA/SE MA. Well west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:21 PM, CoastalWx said: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvPugcb7QGE Well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 There isn't much reason to complain on the EC ensembles going forward...that is a monster EPO. The only complaint would be no -NAO...but then again if we had a monster -NAO too, we'd prob get '09-'10. We'll have our chances in this pattern. It is a great miller B pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I just read this is one of the coldest day 10-15 runs the Euro Ens have ever had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:42 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I just read this is one of the coldest day 10-15 runs the Euro Ens have ever had I'm not sure about one of the coldest ever...but it is damned cold in the CONUS. The signal for arctic outbreak(s) is really strong for D10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:42 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I just read this is one of the coldest day 10-15 runs the Euro Ens have ever had boys crying for their Mommas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That may rival the outbreak we just had when you combine longevity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It's coming! Time to warn those in hackies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:51 PM, CoastalWx said: That may rival the outbreak we just had when you combine longevity. Hopefully it's centered over us this time!!! Cold in Minnesota doesn't really do it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Will this happen the week of the 27th - 30th? I hope I am not going to miss it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said: No they are actually well west of the op., Saturday is going to be a snowy day East and north of NYCH5 is less impressive than 0z. again, probably just a few blown up members skewing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:54 PM, CT Rain said: Hopefully it's centered over us this time!!! Cold in Minnesota doesn't really do it for me. Well you don't want it sitting over us, or it's suppression. I liked the trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:58 PM, CoastalWx said: Well you don't want it sitting over us, or it's suppression. I liked the trough axis. Really classic cold signal on Euro Ens. Impressive. Huge ridge bridge from south of Alaska, over the NP, and right through Russia/Caspian Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:58 PM, CoastalWx said: Hopefully it's centered over us this time!!! Cold in Minnesota doesn't really do it for me. Well you don't want it sitting over us, or it's suppression. I liked the trough axis. Yeah but let's get one outbreak to get some severe widespread subzero cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:51 PM, CoastalWx said: That may rival the outbreak we just had when you combine longevity. There's a good chance of probably multiple arctic shots in that period given the longwave flow. The +PNA hooking up with it makes it a bit more stable...so we may get a few rounds of arctic cold spinning around the locked in PV near Hudson Bay. That thing might be pinwheeling there for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 This sounds about as wintry as can be starting Saturday. it's here HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON EXACT OUTCOMES AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALSO TIEDTO LOW TRACK. AM ANTICIPATING COLD-AIR DRAINAGE ACROSS THE INTERIORAHEAD OF LOW PASSAGE. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW N/W WITH RAINS/E. AGAIN...MUCH OF THIS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH ISUNCERTAIN. PREFER ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS FOR THE SATURDAYCOASTAL LOW.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM LIFTS OUT. COLD AIR INPLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIP-TYPESMAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH A FOLLOW-UP CLIPPER LOW SUNDAY. ARAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE SHORES POSSIBLE WITH S-WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ATTENDANT CONTINENTAL-AIRMASS.INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UNCHANGING PATTERN OF RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE...AN ACTIVE WXPATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NE CONUS. CONSIDERING COLDERARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THELONGWAVE FLOW...FORSEE A CONTINUANCE OF CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS WITHPERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. BUT HESITANT TO DISCUSS FURTHER WITH SUCH AFORECAST SO FAR OUT IN TIME THAT THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OFUNCERTAINTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Would gladly take the snow over extreme cold, the dry and very cold get old fast. Just one more nice storm over the northeast would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So from what I gather this outbreak will be known more for the cold than for the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 9:08 PM, 8611Blizz said: So from what I gather this outbreak will be known more for the cold than for the snow? hard to say...once the cold gets in, might be tough to snow if the vortex is over us, but jury's still out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:59 PM, CT Rain said: Really classic cold signal on Euro Ens. Impressive. Huge ridge bridge from south of Alaska, over the NP, and right through Russia/Caspian Sea. On 1/14/2014 at 9:03 PM, ORH_wxman said: There's a good chance of probably multiple arctic shots in that period given the longwave flow. The +PNA hooking up with it makes it a bit more stable...so we may get a few rounds of arctic cold spinning around the locked in PV near Hudson Bay. That thing might be pinwheeling there for a while. I really that look. As always, a -NAO is always a plus, but that is a sick sick Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 9:37 PM, CoastalWx said: I really that look. As always, a -NAO is always a plus, but that is a sick sick Pacific. With staying power too... that ridge bridge only strengthens on the ensemble mean between D10 and D15 which is always a good sign IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 9:41 PM, CT Rain said: With staying power too... that ridge bridge only strengthens on the ensemble mean between D10 and D15 which is always a good sign IMO. There is another reload down the road it seems when you look at the last few panels off to the SW of AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:42 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I just read this is one of the coldest day 10-15 runs the Euro Ens have ever had LOL-JB is ridiculous on twitter today....hype hype hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 8:58 PM, CoastalWx said: Well you don't want it sitting over us, or it's suppression. I liked the trough axis. Yeah let's get that axis west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 7:22 PM, wx2fish said: I guess this is what happens when it rains in VT in Jan... gotta keep those folks away from any bridges or sharp objects.lol...you saw that pic from Cannon in the Whites, too right? That actually made me feel like it's not as bad here if that's even possible. It's funny how winters always come down to a few storms usually...remove those and it sucks, or add 'em in and it's great. If we had capitalized on those few storms in Dec and then the arctic storm in early January, while those south and east didn't, we'd be the ones talking folks down from the ledge. But alas, the desperation grows every week it don't snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Anything other than the Get your Freakin' hopeS(GFS) up model showing the clipper on 1/22-1/23? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Pretty anomalous ridge over the Pacific Northwest forecast by the 12z Euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On 1/14/2014 at 10:24 PM, heavy_wx said: Pretty anomalous ridge over the Pacific Northwest forecast by the 12z Euro ensemble mean. ecmAnom240.png Any analog years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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