CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 LOL GFS op. Don't look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Thank God it's the GFS op, but it completely bails on winter and brings on Spring...lol. Very LOL-tastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Well it does give us snow next week..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 4:49 PM, weathafella said: Well it does give us snow next week..loltomorrow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 4:46 PM, CoastalWx said: Thank God it's the GFS op, but it completely bails on winter and brings on Spring...lol. Very LOL-tastic. That would be an absolutely epic furnace for the the last week fo January...just non-stop 50s and 60s. Amazing how different the OP GFS has been vs Euro ensembles...that's like the 3rd or 4th OP GFS run that has done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 4:46 PM, CoastalWx said: Thank God it's the GFS op, but it completely bails on winter and brings on Spring...lol. Very LOL-tastic. It'll be interesting to see if Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo are right about the return of the polar vortex and frigid cold to the east. The GFS doesn't seem to support them, although it didn't a 10 days before the recent cold surge either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 4:41 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: Why is that map not a good look? Ridging out west....cooler east. What is it lacking? Because the ridge is somewhat flat...it is able to progress eastward and we'd be warmer a few days beyond that composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 4:58 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said: It'll be interesting to see if Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo are right about the return of the polar vortex and frigid cold to the east. The GFS doesn't seem to support them, although it didn't a 10 days before the recent cold surge either. Well the GFS op loves to just shove ridges east and be way too progressive, but like Will said..it's done that for several runs now. That is certainly the bad side of things for winter wx fans, but that is to the extreme. Somehow my guess is the ensembles are not as warm. The GFS op actually started out colder than 00z too...it just because a furnace after day11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It's too bad the operational models are run past 240hrs. Humongous forecast error towards the end of the runs. Computing power might be better spent elsewhere. And people wouldn't waste time looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:11 PM, eduggs said: It's too bad the operational models are run past 240hrs. Humongous forecast error towards the end of the runs. Computing power might be better spent elsewhere. And people wouldn't waste time looking at it. Well, it's not completely unusable, but the solutions can be a little ridiculous. For instance they did get the magnitude of the cold spells down despite a warmer looking ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 4:59 PM, ORH_wxman said: Because the ridge is somewhat flat...it is able to progress eastward and we'd be warmer a few days beyond that composite.Ah ha....good looks.Im curious if a better ATL would buckle the flow back a bit, preventing the ridge from coming east, to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 If it shows a cutter at hr 384 you can lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 4:42 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL GFS op. Don't look. We get more snow, great.....but I'm also ready for spring training. Just please no cold and dry...like this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: We get more snow, great.....but I'm also ready for spring training. Just please no cold and dry...like this week. Spring training? Got a long way to go, homie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 GEFS look fine. Our location far NE may save the day. Amplitude may be a problem, could see a late bloomer pattern like Coastalwx talks about in his detailed 30 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:40 PM, PolarVortex said: GEFS look fine. Our location far NE may save the day. 12z not so fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:40 PM, PolarVortex said: GEFS look fine. Our location far NE may save the day. Amplitude may be a problem, could see a late bloomer pattern like Coastalwx talks about in his detailed 30 day forecast. To paraphrase LA Confidential..."they're pretty fukkin far from fine" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Wow, pretty mild...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Dr. February will deliver the big one(s) once we get the Atlc. back maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:39 PM, CoastalWx said: Spring training? Got a long way to go, homie One month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:41 PM, CoastalWx said: 12z not so fine. is this the GEFS you are talkin bout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I will officially be concerned if we see the euro ens begin to cave towards this type of solution. Still a lot of winter to go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: One month. Oh for the Sox? Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:49 PM, cpick79 said: is this the GEFS you are talkin bout? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:50 PM, CoastalWx said: Oh for the Sox? Meh. Yea...hence "spring training". I didn't say beach weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 counting down the seconds http://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Truck day 4 weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea...hence "spring training". I didn't say beach weather lol I can't get into baseball until April..lol. I thought you were joking about the wx. I can go out and lime my grass if the GFS suite is right. They come back around near the end, but yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Winter was nice (Sorta) while it lasted , now on to mowing it seems with the anomalous warm pool S of AK, we would need to get a pretty thorough screw job wrt something screwing up the Pacific for a long time for the EPO ridge not to return for a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 On 1/9/2014 at 5:47 PM, weathafella said: To paraphrase LA Confidential..."they're pretty fukkin far from fine" They're fine IMO. Beginning to think though the needle will tilt towards more mild days as a percentage than this last pattern. IE, we will see an eventual compromise as the GEFS begins to cave towards cold but we're going to walk the fence much more in SNE. Leon may have fumbled and instead of trying to recover the ball rolled over and took a nap for a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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