CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 12:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Terrible news Just something to watch. Hold off on the nooses. I did say models may go nuts for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 12:12 PM, CoastalWx said: Just something to watch. Hold off on the nooses. I did say models may go nuts for a bit. Starting to get that sick feeling in my stomach. I opened the closet and made sure i knew where the chair and rope was. Then i closed it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 12:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Starting to get that sick feeling in my stomach. I opened the closet and made sure i knew where the chair and rope was. Then i closed it again The more I think about it, I may understand why. If we see the MJO progress to the more "favorable" phases, that tries to boost the PNA but also will lower heights near the Aleutians and into AK. That's just by default. So, it is possible we may see this shuffling around currently and it's why I would hold off on swallowing an Uzi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 12:23 PM, CoastalWx said: The more I think about it, I may understand why. If we see the MJO progress to the more "favorable" phases, that tries to boost the PNA but also will lower heights near the Aleutians and into AK. That's just by default. So, it is possible we may see this shuffling around currently and it's why I would hold off on swallowing an Uzi.The 6z GEFS show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 12:27 PM, toronto blizzard said: The 6z GEFS show this. Canadian too to a point. I know this sounds like a weenie comment, but something like those two solutions is what makes sense to me in my mind given the tropics. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 12:23 PM, CoastalWx said: The more I think about it, I may understand why. If we see the MJO progress to the more "favorable" phases, that tries to boost the PNA but also will lower heights near the Aleutians and into AK. That's just by default. So, it is possible we may see this shuffling around currently and it's why I would hold off on swallowing an Uzi. How long would the disaster potentially last? Days? Weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 12:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said: How long would the disaster potentially last? Days? Weeks? I never said it was correct....just trying to understand why the euro ensembles were ugly. IMHO, I think I would not incorporate them as heavily as I normally would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Many in PAC NW are thinkin they could enter the ice box again after first week in January. Do we see a big gradient set up between NNE (riding " the line"), while we torch...lets hope not. Hope those warm anomalies off AK aren't budging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Meanwhile there could be a fun 7-10 day period starting this week of snow and or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Focus on the next 10-14 days. After that, all bets are off. Hopefully Ryan will come in with good news long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 2:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Focus on the next 10-14 days. After that, all bets are off. Hopefully Ryan will come in with good news long range Meh - doesn't look great but I'm definitely not fearing it. I could see a few day warm up as things shuffle out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 2:17 PM, CT Rain said: Meh - doesn't look great but I'm definitely not fearing it. I could see a few day warm up as things shuffle out a bit. That's how I feel. I still think the EC is breaking down the EPO too quickly, but I have zero problems if it is doing so because it's reshuffling to an Aleutian low/+PNA thing with the MJO wave. Maybe it's something like a few lousy days before a decent 2nd half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 2:22 PM, CoastalWx said: That's how I feel. I still think the EC is breaking down the EPO too quickly, but I have zero problems if it is doing so because it's reshuffling to an Aleutian low/+PNA thing with the MJO wave. Maybe it's something like a few lousy days before a decent 2nd half? More model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Well not sure if they are right, but the 12z GEFS backs up my reason not to completely side with the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks fine, stormy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 There looks like a serious cold shot potentially around 1/7-1/8....its been showing up on ensembles too, not just the OP run today. We'll have to watch for a cutter right before that...but it could also end up more wintry...the 00z run had a massive ice storm for a chunk of the interior. Some runs have been more overrunning snowy....but that's a system we'll have to watch. It could easily cut west before the cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 6:56 PM, Ginxy said: Looks fine, stormy too It is. It's early to call out guidance...but I'm not so sure why the EC has had some farts in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Scooter don't beat me up but Geez if this ain't a dead ringer for a player to be named later. Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 7:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: There looks like a serious cold shot potentially around 1/7-1/8....its been showing up on ensembles too, not just the OP run today. We'll have to watch for a cutter right before that...but it could also end up more wintry...the 00z run had a massive ice storm for a chunk of the interior. Some runs have been more overrunning snowy....but that's a system we'll have to watch. It could easily cut west before the cold shot. I remember an ice storm one year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Be careful with any cutter or warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 7:12 PM, Ginxy said: Scooter don't beat me up but Geez if this ain't a dead ringer for a player to be named later. Holy crap Right, the 6-10 day had that look....I was speaking more for the month. But before you call me a Debbie...I also said to beware of the EC which looked like azz. I tossed the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 7:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Right, the 6-10 day had that look....I was speaking more for the month. But before you call me a Debbie...I also said to beware of the EC which looked like azz. I tossed the 00z.Never would call you a Debra lol, man if that pans out yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Model mayhem continues with the EC looking a lot better. No surprise really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 On 12/29/2013 at 7:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: There looks like a serious cold shot potentially around 1/7-1/8....its been showing up on ensembles too, not just the OP run today. We'll have to watch for a cutter right before that...but it could also end up more wintry...the 00z run had a massive ice storm for a chunk of the interior. Some runs have been more overrunning snowy....but that's a system we'll have to watch. It could easily cut west before the cold shot. I want ice. lets get some snow then seal it with an inch of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 After the late week event this week --- looks like mother nature is ready to unload again (gradient overrunning style) for early next week too. Should be a fun period of tracking. EDIT: Looks to go warm. Plenty of time to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Boy, go American guidance. That is a good looking pattern on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 5:53 AM, CoastalWx said: Boy, go American guidance. That is a good looking pattern on the GEFS.sweet what's it do with 180 hour ish system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 5:57 AM, Ginxy said: sweet what's it do with 180 hour ish system It looks like it tries to develop a secondary near and south of SNE, but tough to tell exactly. Probably a combo of torch members and some with secondary lows. It's certainly workable for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 5:59 AM, CoastalWx said: It looks like it tries to develop a secondary near and south of SNE, but tough to tell exactly. Probably a combo of torch members and some with secondary lows. It's certainly workable for now.Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I still think the pattern looks good going forward. EC continues to sway all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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