dendrite Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GEFS trended colder than 12Z for Sunday morning...colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 You know ski areas are cringing with Christmas week coming up, not liking the looks at all. A weather disaster of either torching rainstorm or ice storm or whatever is pretty much expected each year for New England ski areas just prior to the holidays. Murphy's Law just never allows the holiday time to go smoothly. I can tell you the next problem or rainstorm will be just prior to MLK Weekend in January...then another is being lined up for just before Presidents Week. But it will dump and be awesome between all those periods. It's just how ski area climo goes, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Can't wait till this gets into the hi -res models wheelhouse later tomorrow. With the GFS where it is and it's known bias for not picking up CAD.. That tells us hi res will be even more dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GEFS trended colder than 12Z for Sunday morning...colder than the op.Prior to Sunday are temps mild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Prior to Sunday are temps mild? Probably low 40s for you fri/Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Can't wait till this gets into the hi -res models wheelhouse later tomorrow. With the GFS where it is and it's known bias for not picking up CAD.. That tells us hi res will be even more dramatic Since when do we trust the NAM, et al at day 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Probably low 40s for you fri/Sat?Doesnt the front come thru the whole region Fri nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Probably low 40s for you fri/Sat?Hmmm. So they will have to drop quite a bit by Sunday. Can that happen prior to precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Brad Field @BradNBCCT17m @ericfisher watch the trends...I bet...colder, colder, colder...warm fronts (typically) do not barrel through snow-covered SNE in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Probably low 40s for you fri/Sat?Hmmm. So they will have to drop quite a bit by Sunday. Can that happen prior to precip? There may be a couple of frontal passages back and forth. So you may cool / warm / cool with the best shot of real chill being Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's times like this that I'm glad I have only one shade tree and live mostly in fields. Power lines to house buried... Of course if this parallels 1998 I'll be low/mid 30's, but mostly unfrozen. My 59 10-12' arborvitaes will be crying for there momma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Since when do we trust the NAM, et al at day 3? Had me getting close to 1" qpf at 18z on monday, For yesterday's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Get propane for the grill also. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Congrats on no power. That's quite the damming signal on the notoriously warm GFS. Good lord - that would be a lot of ice for Concord NH down to Manchester out to PWM (probably) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Good lord - that would be a lot of ice for Concord NH down to Manchester out to PWM (probably)Does it look like Rte Poop is in on the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Does it look like Rte Poop is in on the game? Heh, too early to be that detailed. It's just the general view targets that region. that said, the 84-hour frontal position is along the South Coast (lower CT-RI), and that is pinned there by a now 1032mb high parked over a domain wide snow pack... I don't see the boundary going back N regardless of where the GFS attempts to place the wave in NYS. We end up cold air secluded first. That is a classic Walter Drag, "tuck" pattern. Could see it being 28 from Nashua to PSM, and 32 down to FIT, and near 60 in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Thanks John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Heh, too early to be that detailed. It's just the general view targets that region. that said, the 84-hour frontal position is along the South Coast (lower CT-RI), and that is pinned there by a now 1032mb high parked over a domain wide snow pack... I don't see the boundary going back N regardless of where the GFS attempts to place the wave in NYS. We end up cold air secluded first. That is a classic Walter Drag, "tuck" pattern. Could see it being 28 from Nashua to PSM, and 32 down to FIT, and near 60 in NYC. If we are not hitting below 32 until sometime on Sunday - any idea how much precip will be left for icing purposes? Will most of it be over and we just get a glaze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Good lord - that would be a lot of ice for Concord NH down to Manchester out to PWM (probably)Perfect I'm right in the middle of con and mht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 If we are not hitting below 32 until sometime on Sunday - any idea how much precip will be left for icing purposes? Will most of it be over and we just get a glaze? I don't think it will take that long to get the colder air into the lower levels on the polarward side of the boundary. Take a look at what happens @BTV in the 12 NAM (just for example...) They go from 33 or 34 at 54 hours, down to 22 by 60 hours. Can't really go by the 500mb thickness contours in a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Perfect I'm right in the middle of con and mht You should probably have a generator, anyway. Just use this as an excuse to get one; then if doesn't happen, you have one for the inevitability of the one that does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NH is like our Arkansas. It's the disaster capitol of SNE it seems. Kevin should move there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Trouble is met 101. We have the Berks els west, and that polar high set spatial in an ideal location to get an ageostrophic wedge going, and once you actually give a cool air mass in interior SNE (east of said els...) a reason to set up residence, it becomes like "The Man Who Came To Dinner." It'll be interesting see how it plays out. One would hope that with the Euro's superior resolution, it will show some continuity on it's own damming in the pp on the run up-coming. Starting to get some convergence toward coherent ice signal, though confidence is still low trending upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NH is like our Arkansas. It's the disaster capitol of SNE it seems. Kevin should move there. Yeah if I had my choice that's where I'd be. Tors, severe wx, humidity, deep snows, ice storms. Power outages damaging winds...it's got everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hopefully 0z trends continue the cooler solutions even more so that the runs earlier today. slight ticks to colder solutions is all we need... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hopefully 0z trends continue the cooler solutions even more so that the runs earlier today. slight ticks to colder solutions is all we need... I wouldn't be surprised if we see this tick back and forth run to run for another 36-48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yikes Ugly ugly wx en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yikes nice - looks like Grey issued it for their coverage area. Probably a ways out before BOX issues anything like that. Although, it was good to see a nod to the potential in the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hopefully 0z trends continue the cooler solutions even more so that the runs earlier today. slight ticks to colder solutions is all we need... You need this to trend warmer if you want to keep your power. There is very little chance you trend cold enough to remain all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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