dryslot Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Looking at some downstream precip obs out in Illinois, i don't think the Euro's qpf totals are going to verify, They look more inline with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 It definitely is. And it makes sense to a large degree since most of the precipitation-producing frontogenetical forcing will be north. However, I think we're going to have a lot of convective elements around from time to time with the highly anomalous precipitable water Values overrunning the low-level cold air mass. And in between bursts of showers, there will probably be quite a bit of heavy drizzle around. That may actually accrete more ice as there would be less runoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The rap model has me at right around 20° by 15z. I think it's going to be cold but I highly doubt it's going to be that cold. Yeah that's cold for up there. I was more looking at it aggreeing with the RPM on how far south the frontal boundary is in SNE...RPM has you around 28F at 15z tomorrow. But still has most of NE MA engulfed uner the same airmass (albeit modified some) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 That may actually accrete more ice as there would be less runoff We will definitely accrete ice very well with the moderate to heavy drizzle. However, in order to verify an ice storm we still need some heavier precip from time to time....more than what the ec is showing anyway. I guess there's always that second wave on Monday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Yeah that's cold for up there. I was more looking at it aggreeing with the RPM on how far south the frontal boundary is in SNE...RPM has you around 28F at 15z tomorrow. But still has most of NE MA engulfed uner the same airmass (albeit modified some) It's definitely going to bleed south. There's really not much to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 We will definitely accrete ice very well with the moderate to heavy drizzle. However, in order to verify an ice storm we still need some heavier precip from time to time....more than what the ec is showing anyway. I guess there's always that second wave on Monday too. The Euro is actually the driest of the models, I know it did not verify the totals back in IIL, There were some 3"+ in some convection there, But i don't know how that translates when it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Let the fun begin. 31.3f Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 33/32 at PWM, stiff NE wind, it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 33/32 at PWM, stiff NE wind, it's coming. Isle of Shoals just flipped NE at 17mph and dropped 7 degrees. Its starting to make some progress southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 30.6 here now, north winds and some freezing mist/drizzle, but no precip now. Deck and rails icing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 As far of SNE goes looks like the leading edge of the backdoor boundary is currently from BVY-LWM-MHT. Temp has started to slip back at work in Andover after hanging out in the low 50s all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Finally seeing a drop from higher up. 37, 36.8,36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Oh boy. Freezing rain at 30-31F here all night...approaching 1/4" of ice on most objects and this is east of the Greens. It is at the point now where it is pretty to look at with ice glimmering on everything and the evergreen branches are all weighted to the ground, but no damage. It can stop anytime though. Pretty much everyone has fallen below freezing now. BTV 23/21 ZR with 0.1" per hour QPF MVL 32/30 ZR with 0.43" QPF last 4 hours MPV 30/30 ZR SLK 27/25 ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Wild night and morning the the BTV Warning Area...should get some play on the national news. Hearing of 1"+ ice from friends in the northern CPV. How about this on out of SLK...BTV's AFD mentioned Freezing Rain Thunderstorms too. KSLK 220940Z AUTO 04011G17KT 2SM VCTS FZRA BR BKN006 OVC013 M03/M04 A2967 AO2 LTG DSNT W TSB34UPB0857E10FZRAE0857B10 P0006 27/25 Thunderstorm Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Whoa!! Lightning and thunder in Stowe at 5:25am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Sounds fun. Crazy boundary down here. 30 here, 32 in KALB, 61 in northern Columbia County Whoa!! Lightning and thunder in Stowe at 5:25am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Whoa!! Lightning and thunder in Stowe at 5:25am Couple strikes showing up. Cool stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Sounds fun. Crazy boundary down here. 30 here, 32 in KALB, 61 in northern Columbia County Currently 59 here -- not that far from you. (5 mi. east of Delhi @1540') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 thanks for all the obs, folks. Great to hear it--good luck for those in power-loss areas. Quite a ways to go for anyone in SNE hoping to eek anything of a freezing variety. 43.0/43, dense fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Yeah this is the most extreme inversion I have ever seen. Now we are down to 29.5. Everything is frozen up and iced over again. My remaining 3 or 4 inches of snow set up.... But alas, I assume the heat will break back through here at some point pretty suddenly. Currently 59 here -- not that far from you. (5 mi. east of Delhi @1540') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 34.0F...the slow drop is on. DAW is down to 33F, but for some reason IZG has rotted there for hours. PWM is finally 32F. A lot of latent heating of fusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 34.0F...the slow drop is on. DAW is down to 33F, but for some reason IZG has rotted there for hours. PWM is finally 32F. A lot of latent heating of fusion? catastrophe averted?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 34@1800, 34.6@1100, 35@700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Whoa!! Lightning and thunder in Stowe at 5:25amTransformers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 BTV to PLB to MSS ...That's where we are probably gonna start getting some reports of real trouble.,,,and right down to ART, Kingston and Peterborough. catastrophe averted?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Interesting http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Just getting interesting...couple of lightning/thunder couplets seen/heard this morning with heavy ZR. Power just went out in Stowe Village. My driveway was a mess of evergreen branches falling and/or just leaning way over the road. We'll see how this plays out today...still pouring freezing rain at like 30 degrees in the village. Its now dropped to 29F at 1,500ft with heavy freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 At least BTV is mixing with sleet now. The estimated hourly accretions have come down at the ASOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Transformers? No definitely lightning. Without a doubt. Plenty of reports of it this morning, even on the SLK ASOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 PF~ Can you start a OBS thread for this storm? BTW - 56 disgusting degrees down here in Woodstock . It will at least clear the snow off the ponds/lakes and let it refreeze this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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