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Pre Xmas storm


mahk_webstah

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Shotgun blasts in the woods.

The intensity should be pretty ideal for accretion down this way. Even though the Max precip axis is likely to be to the north, the 0Z Nam was giving us a good one to two tenths of an inch per three hours during the morning tomorrow. Should be interesting. Although I'm anxious to see the new euro since it has been pretty dry after 12z for several runs now.
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The intensity should be pretty ideal for accretion down this way. Even though the Max precip axis is likely to be to the north, the 0Z Nam was giving us a good one to two tenths of an inch per three hours during the morning tomorrow. Should be interesting. Although I'm anxious to see the new euro since it has been pretty dry after 12z for several runs now.

 

Its still dry

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Looks like it keeps the back door front across extreme NE MA. The 03z RPM practially runs it to into northern RI. Should be interesting.

 

 

Yeah that will be very interesting to track. It would bring glazing issues into the Merrimack of S NH and NE MA and eventually into ORH hills....but that is def more aggressive than other guidance....although the RAP model is basically agreeing.

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Yeah that will be very interesting to track. It would bring glazing issues into the Merrimack of S NH and NE MA and eventually into ORH hills....but that is def more aggressive than other guidance....although the RAP model is basically agreeing.

 

Yeah its real agressive but its been pretty consistent run to run. The 4km NAM drops it pretty far south too. I dont know if well see any glazing issues into NE MA like it shows but I could see it dropping a little further south than the euro has it.

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Its still dry

It definitely is. And it makes sense to a large degree since most of the precipitation-producing frontogenetical forcing will be north. However, I think we're going to have a lot of convective elements around from time to time with the highly anomalous precipitable water Values overrunning the low-level cold air mass. And in between bursts of showers, there will probably be quite a bit of heavy drizzle around.
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Seems some kind of pre-boundary has settled through up here just N of Rt 2.  Fit has had a few obs in with 300 wind direction and they slipped from the mid 50s to the mid 30s during the evening.  Same here in Ayer.  It was 47 at the I-495/Rt 2 interchange, and 43 at 111 up Rt 2.. I turned off the highway and by the time I got 4 miles N of that intersect it was 37.  Meanwhile, it is still in the low 50s in BED.  

 

Whether the boundary/a boundary is through or not, there is definitely and\ ageostrophic drain entering the picture up this way.  

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Yeah that will be very interesting to track. It would bring glazing issues into the Merrimack of S NH and NE MA and eventually into ORH hills....but that is def more aggressive than other guidance....although the RAP model is basically agreeing.

The rap model has me at right around 20° by 15z. I think it's going to be cold but I highly doubt it's going to be that cold.
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