Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Pre Xmas storm


mahk_webstah

Recommended Posts

yeah no kidding. SE NH may be pretty dicey. i know the focus is Maine...but minimally a lot of fzdz i think down right to the sea coast perhaps? 

 

That area just west of PSM may get icy. I don't know...I just see that 32F isotherm moving farther SW than the NAM shows. Check out the 06z BTV WRF. That model makes sense to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

We have land on Long Lake and friends around the lake.  Told them the same.

 

He had called me this am, He is at his Camp in Eustis and wanted to know if he was getting siggy ice there because he was going to have to drain the pipes, I said he should be set there, But not back home

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a lot of very warm air hovering across NY State with mainly valleys still hanging onto some chill. Hunter Mountain (base at 1800') has been 50+ all night and now at 55!

 

I managed to hold at 34/35 until an hour ago, but now jumped suddenly to 47. The snow held fairly tough overnight, but the big meltdown underway now.

not just there, but GC is in the midst of warm. Too far west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 6Z actually siphons upper 20's right down to this area early tomorrow, while showing that elevated areas just southwest stay at 50+. Then the heat breaks through again.

That area just west of PSM may get icy. I don't know...I just see that 32F isotherm moving farther SW than the NAM shows. Check out the 06z BTV WRF. That model makes sense to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He had called me this am, He is at his Camp in Eustis and wanted to know if he was getting siggy ice there because he was going to have to drain the pipes, I said he should be set there, But not back home

 

A bit of drive up there.  Nice area though.  Looked at land up there.  Should be mostly snow there, no?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not just there, but GC is in the midst of warm. Too far west.

 

 

There is a lot of very warm air hovering across NY State with mainly valleys still hanging onto some chill. Hunter Mountain (base at 1800') has been 50+ all night and now at 55!

 

I managed to hold at 34/35 until an hour ago, but now jumped suddenly to 47. The snow held fairly tough overnight, but the big meltdown underway now.

 

 

Upper Pioneer Valley still holding some marginal cold.  38F here but as soon as the sun breaks through probably be into mid 40's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So I am very confused with GYX this morning. 

 

The grids are forecasting 0.25-0.5/0.6" of ice for Cumberland county for this storm however they only have Freezing Rain Advisories. The criteria of Ice Storm Warning is >0.25" of ice. I would rather use the Ice Storm Warning term to make sure people are aware this will be a serious impact system. 

 

 

Reading the AFD I can understand where they are coming from though. If the front stays south today we will see upgrades. 

 

Ice storm warnings are actually 0.5" ice. You could argue that in a marginal case like this, and the rarity of the event, means that warnings could be issued down to the coast though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stronger high initially, weaker and further east surface low. I could care less what it shows for temps.

Yeah...once the cold gets in here it'll be tough to push out. Looks like 15Z temps in interior Maine are on the cold side of guidance for this time which is a good sign for here overnight.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good news is that Dendrite is probably in the best spot. He gets some icing, but probably nothing too bad, but cold enough to keep the snow. Can't say the same at the same latitude in Maine.

 

It's going to be an interesting race today. Can we get temps below freezing before the main slug of QPF arrives. That could save a few southern areas, versus the interior which is already below freezing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's going to be an interesting race today. Can we get temps below freezing before the main slug of QPF arrives. That could save a few southern areas, versus the interior which is already below freezing.

 

 

RGEM is pretty cold. It tickles the 32F isotherm down to Amesbury tomorrow afternoon. 30s for Ray while Tolland is tickling 60F.

 

Makes sense regarding the RGEM. I agree it will be interesting to see how the pocket of cold temps by LEW behaves. If it starts to move SW late today...oh oh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z NAM has a more defined frontal drape that extends from SE Mass toward NW Mass at 36 hours.  It shows BOS wind flipping to ENE and losing the warm sector around 30 to 33 hours.

 

I agree that the 2-m temp handling is in question on the polarward side of that slippage.  As other now-casts have shown, when the wind turned N temps fell fast despite only apparent drift to the velocities (noticed this around BTV).   It will bunch a tight gradient (...likely) and I still see FIT-LWM crashing "IF" that boundary indeed BDs.   Temps up in interior ME are in the low 20s right now.  We are still expecting a antecedent +PP to build in there and that usually initiates an ageostrophic pulse (...probably) to begin moving SW down the coastal plain -- it seems the writing is on the wall for missing some of that llv resolution.   It will be interesting to see how far that gets .. you can also end up with staged sort of frontal drape, where the boundary passes, but the cold air low-lvl dowm hangs up.  Weird stuff can set up.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Makes sense regarding the RGEM. I agree it will be interesting to see how the pocket of cold temps by LEW behaves. If it starts to move SW late today...oh oh.

 

 

I see the office decided the front was further south and thus warnings need to be expanded. They still think that the front will move north through the night, into S NH and SW coastal ME. I'm not so sure we see the front actually moving at all, at least not much to be noticeable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...