wxjim207 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 00z GFS continues to really dam in the coast right through the day Sunday. PWM definitely below freezing at the surface, somewhere around +8 aloft. Strong feeling that Coastal Cumberland county communities will be in Ice Storm Warning criteria for this storm. Significant Ice Storm on its way... could be ugly! been saying it for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Strong feeling that Coastal Cumberland county communities will be in Ice Storm Warning criteria for this storm. Significant Ice Storm on its way... could be ugly! been saying it for awhile. I'm thinking my Sunday night shift will be eventful. I'm definitely worried about this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Great paper to read http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081%3C0237%3ACPAIOT%3E2.3.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I should have mention "widespread ice storms"... since in 2008 there was an ice storm however not as widespread as this one looks to be. Areal extent 2008 was probably not as widespread as this event will be. However in terms of significance 2008 was about as good as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Areal extent 2008 was probably not as widespread as this event will be. However in terms of significance 2008 was about as good as it gets. Sorry my head is really screwing with me this evening. I agree with you and stand corrected. I fell on ice this evening in my driveway and really banged my head and lower back into the pavement. Really hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro still has a strong CAD signal dropping as far south as NE MA during the day sunday. It looks like it takes a little longer to kick in low level CAA especially into NH. As a result some of the qpf in Central NH probably falls above 32. The high res euro 2mt maps really wedge down the coast keeping LWM in the 30s while BED/ORH are 55+. Its certaintly gonna be an extreme boundary somewhere across NE MA or SE NH depending on where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Not looking forward to this at all. Days without power could be possible and just too inconvenient. Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro still has a strong CAD signal dropping as far south as NE MA during the day sunday. It looks like it takes a little longer to kick in low level CAA especially into NH. As a result some of the qpf in Central NH probably falls above 32. The high res euro 2mt maps really wedge down the coast keeping LWM in the 30s while BED/ORH are 55+. Its certaintly gonna be an extreme boundary somewhere across NE MA or SE NH depending on where it sets up. Is the line closer to LWM, or BED?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Is the line closer to LWM, or BED?? This run it hangs out near BED during the day before moving north sunday night but never really making it to LWM. This was 15 miles north or so north the 12z run. Tough call for BED. Hopefully the high trends a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 CAA taking over now here in Brunswick Maine. We have shifted NE winds and temp down from 34F to 32F right now. Front is heading south of us. Portland Maine you are next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 This run it hangs out near BED during the day before moving north sunday night but never really making it to LWM. This was 15 miles north or so north the 12z run. Tough call for BED. Hopefully the high trends a little stronger. Man.....I will literally ride the line. I'm about 8 miles ne of KBED. Gun-to-head, I think I get in the cold....just a climo derived hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Man.....I will literally ride the line. I'm about 8 miles ne of KBED. Gun-to-head, I think I get in the cold....just a climo derived hunch. Id probably lean that way too at the moment but its a tough call. Well see how it trends tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 CT Light & Power crews are wagons north to New Hampshire at 10:00 am today. Tough for them being away during the holidays but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Currently MSS is 21F with -SN and SLK is 43F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Currently MSS is 21F with -SN and SLK is 43F. I guess we know where the boundary is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 IMG_37236752380585.jpeg Screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Screwed If that map verifies, then I luck out with something like 0.3" of ice and probably keep power. You, jzinckgra and tamarack get to enjoy rustic 1820-esque living conditions for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If that map verifies, then I luck out with something like 0.3" of ice and probably keep power. You, jzinckgra and tamarack get to enjoy rustic 1820-esque living conditions for a while. Don't underestimate the depth of that cold air I believe we will see it sink further to the south, Today will be a good indicator of how far north if any st all that the boundary moves and how fast we switch over to Zr once the heavier precip moves in, That will be key to how much Ice we accrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 NAM would argue those spots just west of PSM could get siggy icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I guess we know where the boundary is Currently MSS is 21F with -SN and SLK is 43F. I'm not sure its the boundary, just the shallow nature of the cold air. On Mansfield right now, there's over a 20 degree difference in the lowest 1,500ft of the atmosphere. It is low to mid 40s at 1,500ft+ (same elevation as where SLK is located vs. MSS), but drops to 30F at 750ft and then into the mid 20s at 300ft. This is one of the more incredible elevational gradients I've ever seen. The difference between my house and the base of the ski area is roughly 750ft of difference in elevation... the temperature change in that 750ft is 14 degrees right now (2 degrees every 100ft). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 That front makes it right to BOS. Man, it could be bad in SW ME and adjacent NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'm not sure its the boundary, just the shallow nature of the cold air. On Mansfield right now, there's over a 20 degree difference in the lowest 1,500ft of the atmosphere. It is low to mid 40s at 1,500ft+ (same elevation as where SLK is located vs. MSS), but drops to 30F at 750ft and then into the mid 20s at 300ft. This is one of the more incredible elevational gradients I've ever seen. The difference between my house and the base of the ski area is roughly 750ft of difference in elevation... the temperature change in that 750ft is 14 degrees right now (2 degrees every 100ft). December 21 Inversion.JPG That's Is quite the inversion going on there wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Screwed If that map verifies, then I luck out with something like 0.3" of ice and probably keep power. You, jzinckgra and tamarack get to enjoy rustic 1820-esque living conditions for a while. I'll be cleaning my stovepipe today to be sure I've got no creosote. Really hoping this storm is more tame. It'll be interesting to see if the warm front moves farther north at the onset of today's precipitation. Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 That's I'd quite the inversion going on there wowYeah not often it's 44F at 1500ft in the Greens while BTV is 25F at 330ft.The interesting thing is if this were to mix out, BTV could probably pull a rare like 25-degree increase in like 20 minutes, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I don't think srn NH is getting into the 40s. "TEMPERATURES HERE WARM INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN.ALTHOUGH WESTERN GRAFTON COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED TO INCLUDE THE COUNTY IN AN ADVISORY AS EASTERn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 "&& Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/... as of 415 am EST Saturday...major ice storm will be developing...across portions of our forecast area. This storm will be biggest ice storm since Jan 98 to impact our region with hardest hit areas being the slv/cpv. Significant impacts are likely from extremely hazardous travel to scattered power outages from downed tree limb/wires. The most significant icing will occur between 00z tonight to 18z Sunday. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 9Z SREFs finally catching on, but I can tell on the NCEP mean that there are still some warm members. It's looking like 1/2 to 3/4 of the QPF will be rain before transitioning over to ZR unless the CAD overperforms in central Maine today (which is a possibility I suppose). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 CT Light & Power crews are wagons north to New Hampshire at 10:00 am today. Tough for them being away during the holidays but it is what it is. Bad move---they might need to stay put. Undoubtedly, CT will be rife with outages with this melting. It will wreck havoc across the Nutmeg State. Thank goodness for Christmas break--no need to close the schools. Good luck to those in the target areas. 36.0/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 So I am very confused with GYX this morning. The grids are forecasting 0.25-0.5/0.6" of ice for Cumberland county for this storm however they only have Freezing Rain Advisories. The criteria of Ice Storm Warning is >0.25" of ice. I would rather use the Ice Storm Warning term to make sure people are aware this will be a serious impact system. Reading the AFD I can understand where they are coming from though. If the front stays south today we will see upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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