nzucker Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Just fascinating... its currently 37F at the base of Stowe and 40F at the base of Mad River Glen on the east slope higher elevations... those are usually the coldest locations in SWFE, but this is a whole other ball game from your typical mixed precipitation event. This map looks exactly opposite of what 99% of mixed precipitation events turn out being like. Usually the CPV is the warmest and east of the Spine the coldest. Up in the Mansfield area, you can see the Stowe side is 37F currently while the Jeffersonville side of the notch is 27F. That's about as big a gradient as you'll see between those two sites which are just a couple miles apart. You can see the stronger north winds in the CPV while places without the drain have west winds or even southerly in some cases if that's accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 BTV WRF just went "oh snap". Like literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 From GYX: IN central NH that map puts the line for ice accumulation right near both my house and Brian's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 What is c /n nh prime locations wrt climo for a CAA drain from the forecast high poistion (assume for a moment a stronger high). I think models may struggle somewhat which is why BTV AFD is leaning on less in E VT. Which places get that NE drain quickly in N , N /C and C NH , bc i think its a "race" between that drain and precip wrt higher ice accretion. I would think Berlin, Jefferson, etc may go big w ice ,but this based on nothing (maybe N of mtns the drain w seep in less impeded and in addition that is closer to the cold air source anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yeah the retention of cold air is absolutely ridiculous in your neck of the woods and these events always seem to end up threading the needle there This is a tough one, even for experienced mets. I will follow Brian's lead on this because he is a met and knows the local climo well. Although your views are well expressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 BTV WRF just went "oh snap". Like literally. as in limbs crashing? colder icier? The model was reading Bostonwx comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Cryptic remarks from Scott. as in limbs crashing? colder icier? The model was reading Bostonwx comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 What is c /n nh prime locations wrt climo for a CAA drain from the forecast high poistion (assume for a moment a stronger high). I think models may struggle somewhat which is why BTV AFD is leaning on less in E VT. Which places get that NE drain quickly in N , N /C and C NH , bc i think its a "race" between that drain and precip wrt higher ice accretion. I would think Berlin, Jefferson, etc may go big w ice ,but this based on nothing (maybe N of mtns the drain w seep in less impeded and in addition that is closer to the cold air source anyway. Any place on the east side of the east slopes. Think Madison, down through Osippee and into western Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I would actually wonder if area like N conway and Bartlett are some of the last to cool from NE CAA since the air has to sort of go over the mountains to the NE to reach them, where say OSsipee gets a less impeded drain from NE on a line with say Lewiston and Waterville. Might be completely off, but more trying to get an idea of First spots to cool from CAA from NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 as in limbs crashing? colder icier? The model was reading Bostonwx comments? As in colder. Makes more sense now. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks scott i posted again before i saw ur response Pm temps on p and click are colder for ossipee wrt sunday highs then say Bartlett and N conway Well i sure as hell dont want to drive up there for a 35f rain while ossipee is 28 and tons of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks scott i posted again before i saw ur response Pm temps on p and click are colder for ossipee wrt sunday highs then say Bartlett and N conway Fire up a terrain map and you'll see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Take a road trip to BTV. That's got to be ice storm central for this, unless that colder air just north can work in enough for more frozen precip. I would actually wonder if area like N conway and Bartlett are some of the last to cool from NE CAA since the air has to sort of go over the mountains to the NE to reach them, where say OSsipee gets a less impeded drain from NE on a line with say Lewiston and Waterville. Might be completely off, but more trying to get an idea of First spots to cool from CAA from NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Fire up a terrain map and you'll see what I mean.Btv wrf crushes n conway and even Bartlett sunday starting around 4-5 am.Ill take a weenie walk down to town sunday w camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Fwiw btv wrf qpf is a crush job for Jefferson just west of Gotham, so is spine of greens within 10 miles, like 2-3 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I still think the nrn ORH hills could get some glaze on Sunday as well. I see that as a possibility > 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I still think the nrn ORH hills could get some glaze on Sunday as well. I see that as a possibility > 50%.You think more than a glaze for here? On phone and get see maps well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 You think more than a glaze for here? On phone and get see maps well. I don't think you'll see much in the way of significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I don't think you'll see much in the way of significant icing. Ok. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 lol...the SREFs are terrible outside of 24hrs. Why did NCEP have to go and screw them up by making every member a NAM mini-me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 lol...the SREFs are terrible outside of 24hrs. Why did NCEP have to go and screw them up by making every member a NAM mini-me? By the time they are useful, you can use a plethora of other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 By the time they are useful, you can use a plethora of other models. They were usable when 2/3 of the members were RSM and ETA. It's too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 They were usable when 2/3 of the members were RSM and ETA. It's too bad. Agree. You had a better product when those models were available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Ok. Thanks. we'll keep our fingers crossed for heavy icing....but not enough for widespread damage of course, I think it just looks amazing outside with everything glazed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 So we have a place at 1,300' near Stinson Lake NH...judging by what I'm reading here, do you think a trip up might be required? I assume 1,300' will still be in the low level cold....? There's a 5' dbh white pine overhanging the cabin too.. Today driving home it was 36 in Sterling at the 140/190 interchange then up here it was 45.....that's the biggest differential I've seen since living here...craziness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks scott i posted again before i saw ur response Pm temps on p and click are colder for ossipee wrt sunday highs then say Bartlett and N conway Well i sure as hell dont want to drive up there for a 35f rain while ossipee is 28 and tons of ice. Actually the low level warmth loves to flood the CT River Valley in the HIE/BML area. Bartlett and Conway will almost certainly be colder. And a 35 degree rain doesn't look likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 < 32 now down just north and west of Rutland, VT. Nice siphoning down the Champlain Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Actually the low level warmth loves to flood the CT River Valley in the HIE/BML area. Bartlett and Conway will almost certainly be colder. And a 35 degree rain doesn't look likely. Thx, after that post ...i looked at the Btv wrf and saw it was a frz rain situ after 4 -5am verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Actually the low level warmth loves to flood the CT River Valley in the HIE/BML area. Bartlett and Conway will almost certainly be colder. And a 35 degree rain doesn't look likely. I agree spending a lot of time in Lyndonville Vermont I have learned this. Passumpsic River Valley dumps into the Ct River Valley. Warm Air always surges up through there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 00z GFS continues to really dam in the coast right through the day Sunday. PWM definitely below freezing at the surface, somewhere around +8 aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.