ineedsnow Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 you should water your snow tonight so it becomes bullet proof for the weekend Weenie me this..IYO what is rthe farthest south you can see this trend? And again..I'll be happy with 35 and rain if it means we keep pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 i hope you have a generator, a good source of fuel to feed that generator, and a way to heat your house for at least a few days. In ’08, we were lucky to have a generator, and were even luckier to get our power back in 4 days. it was an awesome experience, for the first 12 or 18 hours. After that it got old, fast Back in '08 that was no, no and no. It was VERY miserable! Definitely DO NOT want to see an ice storm and in particular right before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Well I'd say it is possible it tickles down into NE CT, but who's to say the 00z runs don't warm again? Oh I know..I agree. Nothing is set in stone..As long as that SE ridge is there we straddle the hammock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 you should water your snow tonight so it becomes bullet proof for the weekend Underneath the powder from yesterday it is. I could walk on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So the GFS is out on it's own driving the low way up into Quebec I guess. The warm front doesn't even come through here this run. We just warm from mixing out with the cold fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We know from the past what this kind of pack can do to thwart full fledged assaults..esp with how deep and far south it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 euro at 00z mon has ORH and BOS both at 32F. huge gradient too as IJD is 56F. much like scooter mentioned early...it almost acts like a spring backdoor sliding down the coast...PVC and PYM both fall during the day on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This one is going to go colder than even current forecasts I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Now the question is do we go through the dancing model phase. I am not sure if I want 60s or heavy FZRA in Brunswick when I go home to Maine. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This one is going to go colder than even current forecasts I think.Yeah climo says NYC area is most likely place for boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 i know the time frame obviously warrants massive caution given we are still several days out...but the numbers are "funny" to look at. 12z euro at LCI has an 850 of 9C and 2-m of 21F at 00z monday. congrats dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I feel the new GFS ensembles are taking cyclogensis too far north while it transverses New England. I feel that for us in Maine the Easterly flow remains in place to all cold air damming to remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This one is going to go colder than even current forecasts I think.you have had the hot hand recently and I agree it can trend colder to an extent. we'll see how the energy getting ejected from the sw us is handled over the next day, as well as the confluence to the north. regardless somewhere in CNE will be w/o power for awhile if the current trends / modeling continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yeah the only problem in SNE is all that water south of you. But it helps in a situation like yesterday where I got 2.5" and places east of here doubled that. We know from the past what this kind of pack can do to thwart full fledged assaults..esp with how deep and far south it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 i know the time frame obviously warrants massive caution given we are still several days out...but the numbers are "funny" to look at. 12z euro at LCI has an 850 of 9C and 2-m of 21F at 00z monday. congrats dendrite I agree mega caution with the situation but yes the numbers are funny to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I wasn't on the boards for 2008, but I had gone back and read the old Eastern threads about the ice storm that year. This seems a bit different in the evolution. We did not have much snow otg prior to it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I am curious to see what,if any, changes makes to the AFD considering the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg_ . drapes the front from NW MA/VT border E/ENE toward NE mass/NH border (part that stick out to the north) near amersbury/NH border http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif 5 day precip totals thru 12z Monday FRZ probs /amounts ONLY out to day 3 (sat 12z) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Lol I'll take grass over a Dec. '08 redux. :werd: I'll never forget stepping out at 4am back in 08, literally sounded like a warzone with limbs snapping left and right all around me left me with a eerie feeling. Lost power for 7 days in that one 12/13-12/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 You may ping on this run I would welcome it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg_ . drapes the front from NW MA/VT border E/ENE toward NE mass/NH border (part that stick out to the north) near amersbury/NH border So what does that mean then? Not sure how to read that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg_ . drapes the front from NW MA/VT border E/ENE toward NE mass/NH border (part that stick out to the north) near amersbury/NH border http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif 5 day precip totals thru 12z monday That would be borderline for here. I want to keep my snow pack but not if it means significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So what does that mean then? Not sure how to read that. that won't give you LL temps so it just is to depict where they think front will be in relation to other models .....since they factor in climo, and any "hunches/trends" they have. the next day I would refresh and watch the ICE probs/amounts that I linked http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#ice in that post....and see how they match up with your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 :werd: I'll never forget stepping out at 4am back in 08, literally sounded like a warzone with limbs snapping left and right all around me left me with a eerie feeling. Lost power for 7 days in that one 12/13-12/20. We were lucky. Only lost it for 5 at my house, but friends of ours in New Ipswich...14 days. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 that won't give you LL temps so it just is to depict where they think front will be in relation to other models .....since they factor in climo, and any "hunches/trends" they have. the next day I would refresh and watch the ICE probs/amounts that I linked http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#ice in that post....and see how they match up with your location 30% probs...not bad this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So what does that mean then? Not sure how to read that. It means the warm front does not get any further north then where cpick laid out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We were lucky. Only lost it for 5 at my house, but friends of ours in New Ipswich...14 days. Ouch. My cousin in Derry lost it for 13 days too. Not fun. I'm usually pretty lucky living on a fairly busy road. Usually get it back in 2-3 days max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It means the warm front does not get any further north then where cpick laid out well as forky will prob point out I don't have the 18z or 0z depicition of front....so It may move further north after that period before they forecast a cold front to swing thru 12z monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 euro 2-m temp departures sunday afternoon - green is like -10F departure...those deep reds/brown are like +20F. spring and mid-winter within 100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 CIPS analog with the 12z run shows Ice Storm 1998 has the second highest ranked storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.