kgaren Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I just drove home from Burlington, south to Addison county. Even this episode was weird. Light to moderate rain and 26 degrees. Roads OK, parking lots tricky. Hoping for the front to go somewhere else - nothing personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't think this is really a Lakes Region deal at all... CAA event vs CAD deal as was stated. Well above freezing in most valley locations in the Lakes. I could see a glazing as the boundary sags south on Sunday which would perhaps lead to some ice Ossipee to plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't think this is really a Lakes Region deal at all... CAA event vs CAD deal as was stated. Well above freezing in most valley locations in the Lakes. I could see a glazing as the boundary sags south on Sunday which would perhaps lead to some ice Ossipee to plymouthThis is classic CAD. It's so strong that we have low level CAA undercutting surging WAA aloft. Sorry, but I don't agree that we'll be well above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 And yes...Saturday will be warm outside of extreme NNE. That will be no surprise. This was always a potential Sunday event for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't think this is really a Lakes Region deal at all... CAA event vs CAD deal as was stated. Well above freezing in most valley locations in the Lakes. I could see a glazing as the boundary sags south on Sunday which would perhaps lead to some ice Ossipee to plymouth I'm not saying it will be the worst there, but those areas tucked in on the south and east side of the Whites such as that location and above 500-600' may have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Think there's a window to make the trip to Montreal tomorrow morning? from what I've seen the warnings are for tonight and then Sat night - Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This is classic CAD. It's so strong that we have low level CAA undercutting surging WAA aloft. Sorry, but I don't agree that we'll be well above freezing. Well, yes it is CAD, but the region warmed well above freezing today in most spots. There will be a strong inversion and CAD but I would expect mid to upper 30s for much of the Lakes region. I wouldn't expect temperatures to drop much below 32-33 for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I'm not saying it will be the worst there, but those areas tucked in on the south and east side of the Whites such as that location and above 500-600' may have issues. Yeah a light glazing. The area from TIlton to Plymouth will drain some of the cooler air from Maine as that boundary sags out. But I see plain rain for much of the event for central NH. Maybe a few hours of freezing rain sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 How much rain for tomorrow? Just curious how much of a beating the snow pack will take Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah a light glazing. The area from TIlton to Plymouth will drain some of the cooler air from Maine as that boundary sags out. But I see plain rain for much of the event for central NH. Maybe a few hours of freezing rain sunday morning I think the lakes region is in for more than light glazing. But like I said, it depends on how much QPF falls. To me, that is the bigger question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well, yes it is CAD, but the region warmed well above freezing today in most spots. There will be a strong inversion and CAD but I would expect mid to upper 30s for much of the Lakes region. I wouldn't expect temperatures to drop much below 32-33 for tonight Sunday is different then Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z gfs has at least .25 falling with sfc temperatures below freezing at LCI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Also, elevation will play a big role. 500' vs 800' may mean a lot in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well, yes it is CAD, but the region warmed well above freezing today in most spots. There will be a strong inversion and CAD but I would expect mid to upper 30s for much of the Lakes region. I wouldn't expect temperatures to drop much below 32-33 for tonightYeah, but we're not talking about tomorrow. System 1 was always meh here (although it's close...32.5F right now). The question is how quickly and how far south can we get 32F in here on Sunday morning.The 12Z 12km BTV WRF looks a lot like the euro op. The ec ens are almost evenly split here between a torch, a meh 32-34F rain, and then the op solution that falls into the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 20's have made it down to Ticonderoga, NY now, 60 miles below BTV. 29 there on NNE east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z gfs has at least .25 falling with sfc temperatures below freezing at LCII don't think anyone is calling for the Lakes Region to get the worst of it, but the CAD usually overperforms versus a 36-48hr prog of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah, but we're not talking about tomorrow. System 1 was always meh here (although it's close...32.5F right now). The question is how quickly and how far south can we get 32F in here on Sunday morning. The 12Z 12km BTV WRF looks a lot like the euro op. The ec ens are almost evenly split here between a torch, a meh 32-34F rain, and then the op solution that falls into the mid 20s. Don't the models show it cooling sat night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't think anyone is calling for the Lakes Region to get the worst of it, but the CAD usually overperforms versus a 36-48hr prog of the GFS. Yeah the retention of cold air is absolutely ridiculous in your neck of the woods and these events always seem to end up threading the needle there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I have no visions of anything down this way, be do any of the model members show cool air draining to the Worcester hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 They might get just enough sleet to avoid disaster, but it looks like ice storm warning either way. This is a nightmare for all the resorts i am sure. We are up there for days next week....well maybe if there is power. I think Shawnee is screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I have essentially zero experience with CAD here in Thornton. Can someone give me a heads up? 33.3/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 From GYX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's now snowing near the Canadian border in northern NY. Malone is 22 with light snow presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This event is just weird but yet fascinating... You won't find many examples where Plattsburgh, NY along Lake Champlain is 19/18 with steady freezing rain, while Saranac Lake at 1,700ft is 34/34 with rain. We are talking a 15F difference in the lowest 1,200ft of the atmosphere right now. KPBG 202328Z AUTO 35007KT 5SM -FZRA BR OVC018 M07/M08 A2997 AO2 UPB2256E15FZRAE2256B15 P0002 KSLK 202314Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM RA BR OVC007 01/01 A2981 AO2 UPB2255E02RAB02 P0002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's now snowing near the Canadian border in northern NY. Malone is 22 with light snow presently.34 in Bolton 26 in Ticonderoga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 From GYX:the 0.65" goes right through my area. Fabulous Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 From GYX: The only time I wish I would not jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 34 in Bolton 26 in Ticonderoga Just fascinating... its currently 37F at the base of Stowe and 40F at the base of Mad River Glen on the east slope higher elevations... those are usually the coldest locations in SWFE, but this is a whole other ball game from your typical mixed precipitation event. This map looks exactly opposite of what 99% of mixed precipitation events turn out being like. Usually the CPV is the warmest and east of the Spine the coldest. Up in the Mansfield area, you can see the Stowe side is 37F currently while the Jeffersonville side of the notch is 27F. That's about as big a gradient as you'll see between those two sites which are just a couple miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Lots of times the cold can slip pretty easily down Lake George from Ticonderoga to Bolton, but I dunno if there is any mechanism tonight. Tomorrow at this time there might be a northeast drain. 34 in Bolton 26 in Ticonderoga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Lots of times the cold can slip pretty easily down Lake George from Ticonderoga to Bolton, but I dunno if there is any mechanism tonight. Tomorrow at this time there might be a northeast drain. Im not really expecting much freezing rain here in Bolton but this is fairly unusual setup. Will be interesting to watch the temps. That weather station in Bolton is mine. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=12814 Schroon lake to the north and a tag higher is also at 34. The 26 in Ticongeroga is wild feedig right down the lake from BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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