Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Pre Xmas storm


mahk_webstah

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Tip~ What CT zones, or CT in general?

 

I am a big fan of the epic busts, when they occur -- this would have to be pretty huge to get that front to "sag" as far S as ...well, Kevin's crenshaw melon.  In fact, calling it a sag would be kinda wrong.  More like a BDF

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z GFS is slightly weaker with the CAD and is a bit warmer than 12Z. It's a tough forecast for here, but there's no way out of this for interior ME.

 

Dude, look at that high. That is so ominous looking.

 

Also this is an important detail to note. The GFS has the QPF max more along the WF over ctrl NH and ME while the euro is farther north where it's colder. The GFS basically says destructive ice for interior ME into adjacent NH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude, look at that high. That is so ominous looking.

 

Also this is an important detail to note. The GFS has the QPF max more along the WF over ctrl NH and ME while the euro is farther north where it's colder. The GFS basically says destructive ice for interior ME into adjacent NH.

Everyone's calling me and asking me if the our area  (Northern Lakes Region of NH) is going to have an ice storm.  These slight changes in each model run are driving me crazy. So today I guess Euro continues the slight  warming trend as well as the 18Z GFS but the 18Z NAM has reversed course and is cooler.  Dendrite says tough call for us, CoastalWX says watch that high.  Knowing my area CAD always over performs but wish there was a clear trend instead of model hugging every 6 hours. Sure nervous with almost 2" QPF expected.   33.8F and light rain past hour.  High was 36F today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z GFS is slightly weaker with the CAD and is a bit warmer than 12Z. It's a tough forecast for here, but there's no way out of this for interior ME.

 

Or the Champlain Valley... I think BTV is looking good for ground zero at this point.

 

They are way colder than anywhere else in New England... its not even close to anyone else.  VT's most populated county is about to get destroyed, lol.

 

BTV is down in the low 20s now with freezing rain, and dew points have dropped into the teens!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude, look at that high. That is so ominous looking.

 

Also this is an important detail to note. The GFS has the QPF max more along the WF over ctrl NH and ME while the euro is farther north where it's colder. The GFS basically says destructive ice for interior ME into adjacent NH.

Yeah...I think we verify colder than the GFS is showing, but I'm relying on CAA this time instead of a cold airmass already in place. At least NE flow is my prime direction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Or the Champlain Valley... I think BTV is looking good for ground zero at this point.

 

They are way colder than anywhere else in New England... its not even close to anyone else.  VT's most populated county is about to get destroyed, lol.

 

BTV is down in the low 20s now with freezing rain, and dew points have dropped into the teens!

 

Yeah...NAM/Euro had that for up there today/tonight, but moderates it some over the next 24hrs. With the sfc low potentially staying south of us the CV may not torch north of DDH on Sunday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah...NAM/Euro had that for up there today/tonight, but moderates it some over the next 24hrs. With the sfc low potentially staying south of us the CV may not torch north of DDH on Sunday.

 

BTV's stance is interesting but seems to be occurring right now... normally it is east of the Spine/cordillera that has the hardest time scouring out the cold air, but this time its relying on advection and not an already frigid airmass in place.  So the normal climo of the Champlain Valley being warmest and eastern VT coldest doesn't look to hold true.  The Champlain Valley gets the nod in any thermal advection because there is absolutely nothing stopping air from coming in from the north (just like southerly flow warms them up so quickly, same happens in reverse).  It will be interesting to see how strong the CAA is in ME/NH coastal plain or foothills.

 

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT

ICING EVENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE

VALLEY...THE NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS...AND THE LOWER

ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS

WOULD INCLUDE THE PLATTSBURGH/BURLINGTON AREA. NOT LOOKING AT

ANYTHING HISTORIC...LETS BE CLEAR HERE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS IN

EXCESS OF ONE THIRD...AND IN SOME CASES ONE HALF INCH ARE

CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LIKELY LEADING TO PROBLEMATIC

POWER OUTAGES AND LOCALLY DIFFICULT TRAVEL. ELSEWHERE...THE

FORECAST IS ALSO QUITE TRICKY...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE THE HIGHER

RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING MILDER AIR ALOFT WILL FIND ITS WAY INTO

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DACKS/GREENS...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN

AND EASTERN VERMONT. HERE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MIX SATURDAY

NIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL IDEA WILL BE FOR A GENERAL TRANSITION TO

ALL RAIN BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. COLD AIR IS TYPICALLY TOUGH TO SCOUR

OUT IN EASTERN VT...BUT ALAS THIS IS AN ADVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE

BLEEDING OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN VT WILL BE JUST AS

TOUGH TO COME BY...THUS THE MODEL`S...AND MY FORECAST PREDICTION

OF SOMEWHAT LESSER IMPACTS HERE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah...I think we verify colder than the GFS is showing, but I'm relying on CAA this time instead of a cold airmass already in place. At least NE flow is my prime direction.

 

It's always tricky to rely on CAA oozing in from the NE, but usually you guys can do this with minimal downslope component. Some of those spots in the lakes region near and above 1k are in trouble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...