SnowMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 For Dendrites sake I hope not, yikes Do you have a link for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Looking at the 6z btv wrf the icing is fairly limited. The biggest population areas effected verbatim is the CPV . It keeps most icing well N and Nw of Portland and well North east of even dentrite's area. If we has a cold airmass that we were depending on models to scour out i would not buy the less icy solutions , but the antecedent airmass is cool "rot" and ice it seems is dependent on a cold drain from the North. I could see this not happening , and or not in time for qpf's arrival. N and central maine are still screwed so to speak but im not sure the cold feeds into the cp in maine. This is just based on btv wrf mind you but in all models the antecedent airmass is sorta "mild" so its not like we have teens and 20's in lakes region tomm nite that we are counting on getting scoured out for non ice, we are counting on the big high draining temps down as precip arrives. Lots of questions. But CPV of vt could be very bad! If the euro is right, no question it's to the coast. That's a polar high feeding down. The air near CAR is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Do you have a link for this? Those are on the same Coolwx site you posted your image from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Do you have a link for this? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NH&stn=KCON&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If the euro is right, no question it's to the coast. That's a polar high feeding down. The air near CAR is cold. It looks like the Nam/Sref's and WRF are really struggling with this one for some reason. What should be those models wheelhouse on LL cold drain and they aren't even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Those are on the same Coolwx site you posted your image from. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NH&stn=KCON&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Thanks. Was hoping they had it for KASH...but only KCON apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Any chance the freezing rain makes it to PSM area or is it all down the drain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Any chance the freezing rain makes it to PSM area or is it all down the drain? I personally think we have a chance to see it go to the MA NH border. Euro will be telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Any chance the freezing rain makes it to PSM area or is it all down the drain? Yes there is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Euro is a hair weaker with the CAD again...nasty for SW ME, but it takes until midday to get going here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 One thing i can say, Is the modeling has been all over the place for this event and it looks like that has not changed yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 BTV temps dropping...35F and rain at 10am to 28F and freezing rain now. I know there's a lot of focus on Maine/NH, but this could be real ugly for the highest populated areas in VT with that northerly drainage flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 One thing i can say, Is the modeling has been all over the place for this event and it looks like that has not changed yet what has not changed at all though Jeff is your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 BTV temps dropping...35F and rain at 10am to 28F and freezing rain now. I know there's a lot of focus on Maine/NH, but this could be real ugly for the highest populated areas in VT with that northerly drainage flow. we have posted a lot about vT getting crushed with ice. This is 98 all over again for some. i was serious about ski lifts cancel, from you north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 we have posted a lot about vT getting crushed with ice. This is 98 all over again for some. i was serious about ski lifts cancel, from you north Nittany posted this in the NNE thread...BTV at 12z Sunday...25F at the surface and 50F at 4,500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 PF thats about as ugly as it can get, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nittany posted this in the NNE thread...BTV at 12z Sunday...25F at the surface and 50F at 4,500ft. image.jpg These soundings are going to be classic. Tough to get sleet with such a shallow cold layer and such a warm hydrometeor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 what has not changed at all though Jeff is your area No, Been pretty steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 These soundings are going to be classic. Tough to get sleet with such a shallow cold layer and such a warm hydrometeor. The increase in QPF has to be troublesome to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nittany posted this in the NNE thread...BTV at 12z Sunday...25F at the surface and 50F at 4,500ft. image.jpg Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The increase in QPF has to be troublesome to you Troublesome, and troublesome that the GFS is the coldest solution. You can't toss it, but can you really believe it? We've seen how easily winds can go 360 at PWM and drop the temp 5-10 degrees in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Could someone let me know the level of ice I could see in Jackson, NH this weekend, along the WMNF boundary at 1100 feet elevation? I am not holding you to that number, I am just wondering and planning, thanks! Sorry if someone already responded before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Troublesome, and troublesome that the GFS is the coldest solution. You can't toss it, but can you really believe it? We've seen how easily winds can go 360 at PWM and drop the temp 5-10 degrees in an hour. Not much else seems to be that cold support it, But when it typically has a warm bias, You have to wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Could someone let me know the level of ice I could see in Jackson, NH this weekend, along the WMNF boundary at 1100 feet elevation? I am not holding you to that number, I am just wondering and planning, thanks! Sorry if someone already responded before. You should be planning for extended power outages. You might luck out and be fine, but that's a very favorable area for CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Troublesome, and troublesome that the GFS is the coldest solution. You can't toss it, but can you really believe it? We've seen how easily winds can go 360 at PWM and drop the temp 5-10 degrees in an hour. Dude I am mega glad I am not in your shoes. Having this occur this weekend of all times too. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 You should be planning for extended power outages. You might luck out and be fine, but that's a very favorable area for CAD. Great advice, lets hope it fails but geez hard to see a way out of your forecast area not having major issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Dude I am mega glad I am not in your shoes. Having this occur this weekend of all times too. Wow It really just might be the most difficult forecast one can have. Such a razor's edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 You should be planning for extended power outages. You might luck out and be fine, but that's a very favorable area for CAD. Thanks. I might be stuck there! I envision trees and powerlines being down everywhere.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I am most worried about my home in Standish, ME. I am about to say something I have never said before. I hope this event ends up being warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I will be sure to get pics of the tree damage assuming this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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