wxjim207 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Personally I believe it is poor choice to shrugg off Portland, Brunswick and places like this from a significant icing event. The placement of the stalled front is going to be very tricky and I feel CAD will remain strong enough. Granted due to thermal profiles they will not see the greatest accumulations but I cannot rule out 0.25-0.4" of ice. While slightly inland I see accumulations to 0.5". This could be very ugly come Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't think anyone is shrugging off the cstl cities. PWM very vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The ski resort towns must be thrilled with the double whammy prospect of icy slopes and major power outages heading into one of the biggest weeks of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 WHat I wouldn't give to switch places for this one with you guys up north. Jealous . Please take many pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I've created a separate thread for those of us south of the boundary to marvel at our snowpack loss and record highs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 WHat I wouldn't give to switch places for this one with you guys up north. Jealous . Please take many pics I will, Once i can get back on in 7-10 days or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I've created a separate thread for those of us south of the boundary to marvel at our snowpack loss and record highs! I am sure you would have liked to have been taking your NNE trip right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I am sure you would have liked to have been taking your NNE trip right now Ehhh... not for skiing. I'm heading up after Christmas for a day or two. Hopefully things are in decent shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't think anyone is shrugging off the cstl cities. PWM very vulnerable. I would say GYX is shrugging it off reading their thoughts in the AFD today. GYX grids are saying nothing for accumulations of FZRA in Coastal Cumberland and Coastal York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I wonder if being on the hill will reduce some of the icing compared to the valley. Or will the temp profile be somewhat reversed at lower altitudes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Place to be is Northern Aroostook. They got +/-20" snow in the 1998 event, at ratios in the 7-8 to 1 range, so probably rimey flakes or some IP, as their temps were sub-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The ski resort towns must be thrilled with the double whammy prospect of icy slopes and major power outages heading into one of the biggest weeks of the year. It's funny because they will all come anyway, just sucks that those folks have been hearing about how awesome this season has been so far and then this happens. Just have to chuckle. All the people will still come, every place has paid in full rules at reservations time during the holiday period (just so when the annual Grinch storm comes, they can't back out or lose $500 a night for their hotel room)....these people have already paid, so they are coming no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I wonder if being on the hill will reduce some of the icing compared to the valley. Or will the temp profile be somewhat reversed at lower altitudes? The higher up you are, below the inversion, the colder you will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I wonder if being on the hill will reduce some of the icing compared to the valley. Or will the temp profile be somewhat reversed at lower altitudes? More ice for u, if anything. The inversion is higher up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Same here. Plus where I live, I get the effect of cold air drainage down the Kennebec River Valley. As OceanStWx stated in a reply to me yesterday, it's always a good idea to be prepared in the winter months in Maine. I convinced my daughter to call off the trip from PA to Maine tomorrow. No sense in placing the family in any danger. I will see my new grand daughter soon enough. I'm originally from PA and my family is still down there. They are coming up the day after christmas. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's funny because they will all come anyway, just sucks that those folks have been hearing about how awesome this season has been so far and then this happens. Just have to chuckle. All the people will still come, every place has paid in full rules at reservations time during the holiday period (just so when the annual Grinch storm comes, they can't back out or lose $500 a night for their hotel room)....these people have already paid, so they are coming no matter what. There is goin to be a TON of accidents in ski towns sunday. A Ton. The word needs to get out . And we know ski resorts dont love yelling ice ice ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 You are just full of good news today, aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I'm originally from PA and my family is still down there. They are coming up the day after christmas. We'll see what happens. I asked my daughter to wait until after Christmas for their visit. If we do have power issues, hoping that it will be remedied by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I asked my daughter to wait until after Christmas for their visit. If we do have power issues, hoping that it will be remedied by then. Sorry, Don't shoot the messenger, I think you made the right call not having your daughter come up......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I anticipate GYX will be increasing the likelihood of the southern extent of freezing rain in their afternoon AFD. HPC probabilities for freezing rain in southern coastal ME certainly seem to warrant it, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 There is goin to be a TON of accidents in ski towns sunday. A Ton. The word needs to get out . And we know ski resorts dont love yelling ice ice ice. Are you talking Car accidents? Ice is a shade better than rain, lol. But we let the local media and NWS deal with forecasting road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I anticipate GYX will be increasing the likelihood of the southern extent of freezing rain in their afternoon AFD. HPC probabilities for freezing rain in southern coastal ME certainly seem to warrant it, FWIW. My guess is they are going the conservative route right now, And we see changes as we progress over there next few shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I would say GYX is shrugging it off reading their thoughts in the AFD today. GYX grids are saying nothing for accumulations of FZRA in Coastal Cumberland and Coastal York. Well in their defense, the euro does not come into their system until the predawn package is sent out. I don't see anything wrong if they decide to hit it harder further south in the aftn package instead of the earlier morning update.. You don't want to hit it hard, pull back, and then hit it hard again. Best to just gradually adjust and ramp up if need be. It's never easy when literally 5 miles could mean rain or damaging ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Is this legit? Meaning a good interpretation of the model run. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=12&fhr=20&field=ptype Based on 12z gfs. Shows at least 6 hours of ZR in SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If I know climo enough, you probably could extend that watch a county west in the lakes region. I agree. It's certainly a caution flag that the notoriously warm GFS is so cold for the coast. 12z run gives PWM 1.11" freezing rain. I haven't checked much else yet today, but I would certainly think we've got to be close to 50% confidence for watch in and around PWM, certainly for east central NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 We are seeing steady mixed precip now...coating of snow and sleet this morning, but now it's everything from a mangled flake to large chunks of sleet to straight rain drops (ZR). The oddest one is the aggregates of sleet...it's like rock candy falling from the sky at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgaren Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Here in Burlington VT, it is freezing rain. Sidewalks are treacherous at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Looking at the 6z btv wrf the icing is fairly limited. The biggest population areas effected verbatim is the CPV . It keeps most icing well N and Nw of Portland and well North east of even dentrite's area. If we has a cold airmass that we were depending on models to scour out i would not buy the less icy solutions , but the antecedent airmass is cool "rot" and ice it seems is dependent on a cold drain from the North. I could see this not happening , and or not in time for qpf's arrival. N and central maine are still screwed so to speak but im not sure the cold feeds into the cp in maine. This is just based on btv wrf mind you but in all models the antecedent airmass is sorta "mild" so its not like we have teens and 20's in lakes region tomm nite that we are counting on getting scoured out for non ice, we are counting on the big high draining temps down as precip arrives. Lots of questions. But CPV of vt could be very bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 For Dendrites sake I hope not, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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