OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah I see that all the time here in mixed events... its funny because a lot of Mets always hammer the "lower elevations" for ice, but then 1,000-3,000ft gets destroyed at like 29F while the people at 350ft in the "lower elevations" were 32-33F during the whole event. At the ski resort, in 99% of these events, the worst icing and coldest temperatures are at our 2,500ft station, but 1,500ft base is usually pretty close, while down in town its warmed above freezing below 1,000ft. We usually end up with a temp profile that looks like this, and then ends up confusing people when all the TV mets said the mountain valleys will get the most ice, with less at higher elevations: 4,000ft...35F RN 2,500ft...29F ZR 1,500ft...30F ZR 750ft...33F RN Usually the cold air maxes around 1000 feet. Aloft is warming from WAA, but the surface warms slightly from insolation and latent heat release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 00z GFS model sounding for Coastal Maine... Nice FZRA profile right there 00z NAM for the same time... with good CADing in place that is a nice FZRA profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The NAM will crumble toward the others probably and then end up being the best model within 24rs of the event as it handles the low level thermal profile better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Euro trended stronger with the high and cooled across NNE. Looks colder than the GFS on my maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 euro also has a nice "cold-tuck" into north central mass / northeast mass sunday afternoon/sunday evening. Quite the cad signal shown on the euro for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 euro also has a nice "cold-tuck" into north central mass / northeast mass sunday afternoon/sunday evening. Quite the cad signal shown on the euro for sure Big run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nam still pos. But noticing on last two "cold " gfs runs the cold barely gets here before the sunday LP amd precip shield. (Just in time ) for ice. Seems if this cold oozes south 12 hrs later or not (due to low moving in) it could spare nne. . 6z gfs is even a bit weaker w the cold push sunday mid am (for nh) a d much milder for vt. wrt to nh and 32 isotherm gets it into lakes area by 10 am sunday and concord by 1pm. Just in time to flip to frzr but its a close call is my point. The big high doesnt seem to exert its influence on most of nh till mid am sunday and is milder on 6z for vt all together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nam still pos. But noticing on last two "cold " gfs runs the cold barely gets here before the sunday LP amd precip shield. (Just in time ) for ice. Seems if this cold oozes south 12 hrs later or not (due to low moving in) it could spare nne. Is euro this late in bringing in cold. I.e 0z gfs 32f n nh 12z sunday then pushing quickly S during day ala gfs. 6z gfs is even a bit weaker w the cold push sunday mid am, gets it into lakes area by 10 am sunday and concord by 1pm. Just in time to flip to frzr but its a close call is my point. The bi high doesnt seem to exert its influence on most of nh till mid am sunday and is milder on 6z for vt all together Are you referring to your hood in Mass? No one in SNE has a thing to worry about other than some rain, heavy melting, and minor flooding from the two. Bare ground for all come Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nam still pos. But noticing on last two "cold " gfs runs the cold barely gets here before the sunday LP amd precip shield. (Just in time ) for ice. Seems if this cold oozes south 12 hrs later or not (due to low moving in) it could spare nne. . 6z gfs is even a bit weaker w the cold push sunday mid am (for nh) a d much milder for vt. wrt to nh and 32 isotherm gets it into lakes area by 10 am sunday and concord by 1pm. Just in time to flip to frzr but its a close call is my point. The big high doesnt seem to exert its influence on most of nh till mid am sunday and is milder on 6z for vt all together Euro has the 32 line in southern NH at 12z Sun. That being said the 06z GFS is definitely warmer than the last 2 runs. Looking at the surface winds it still trys to drop the surface boundary toward NE MA during the day Sunday. Almost in a back door cold front fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Euro is frigid on the WU maps. 25F isotherm makes it to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GYX now calling for mostly rain right here along the southern coast of Maine (Portland//Scarborough and points south along the coast) "A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS EXCLUDES PORTLAND...CONCORD...AND PORTSMOUTH WHICH WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN". http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Usually the cold air maxes around 1000 feet. Aloft is warming from WAA, but the surface warms slightly from insolation and latent heat release. Ahh that's interesting... I usually find it higher than that in these parts. But that may also just be local topography. It'll be warming from the valley up, and also from the top down, but almost always ends up that the 2,000ft elevations on this mountain are the last to lose the cold air. I mean it works that way on almost any thaw or warm up that the NE facing slope (steep slope) at 2-2.5k will hold onto 32> for an excessive amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GYX now calling for mostly rain right here along the southern coast of Maine (Portland//Scarborough and points south along the coast) "A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS EXCLUDES PORTLAND...CONCORD...AND PORTSMOUTH WHICH WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN". http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Same for my area too. More rain and temps in the 30s except for part of Sunday. Maybe we dodge a bullet? Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If the Champlain Valley can get a northerly drainage flow like the BTV4 model shows, look-out. This is 12z/7am Sunday with heavy rain falling and temps in the 20s in the CPV. Montreal is in the upper teens, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GYX now calling for mostly rain right here along the southern coast of Maine (Portland//Scarborough and points south along the coast) "A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS EXCLUDES PORTLAND...CONCORD...AND PORTSMOUTH WHICH WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN". http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Yeah -- was a little surprised to see that, especially stated so categorically, after all the signals up through last night. Now I can shift gears from being worried about losing power to being depressed about once again having a beautiful snowpack assaulted just in time for Christmas. Amazing how this seems to happen more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 My recollection of the precipitation from the 1998 ice storm around Sugarloaf was a mixture of snow/sleet and freezing rain in the Carabassett Valley with very little tree damage. We never lost power at Sugarloaf throughout the whole storm. Skiing off the Superquad at about 3,300' it was tropically warm with high southerly winds gusts and plain rain, while the base of the mountain was calm with sleet/freezing rain and temperatures in the teens. Traveling southbound through Farmington/Livermore Falls/Jay etc, was like being in a freezing rain encased war zone with massive tree damage. Farmington damage was significant, but minor compared to the AUG/LEW area, as more precip fell as IP. We moved from Gardiner to New Sharon in May 1998, and there was no comparing the damage. More (and bigger) trees broke on our 0.8-acre houselot in Gardiner than on our 80-acre woodlot in New Sharon. (Not "more per acre", just more.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Winter Storm Watch here along the midcoast, including my county, Sagadahoc. I was not wishing for this. I would much rather see plain rain. Looks like family visit from PA cancel. 24.1°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Are you referring to your hood in Mass? No one in SNE has a thing to worry about other than some rain, heavy melting, and minor flooding from the two. Bare ground for all come Monday morning. What im saying is the airmass is initially borderline and we have to depend on not just strength but TIMING of the big high to push down just as precip moves in sunday am (and by "we")?i mean nne-cne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I hate ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well looks like I better get ready for no power and no heat here in the CPV with a 1/4-3/4 ice forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If I know climo enough, you probably could extend that watch a county west in the lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GYX backs off and the euro goes colder. If the 12Z models come in cold again I think it's game on here for some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Am I outta the game here or is there still time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think we will see adjustments with this in the next few runs as models start to pick up on the CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well looks like I better get ready for no power and no heat here in the CPV with a 1/4-3/4 ice forecast. Good luck, eyewall. It looks like you're going to be seeing an inch of ice or so. I sure hope the cold draining into the Champlain valley doesn't reach down as far as Orwell. Regardless, I'm off to Lowe's to pick up a generator. I'd rather not spend Christmas morning without an operating well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think we will see adjustments with this in the next few runs as models start to pick up on the CAD This. I hope it trends more towards IP. Don't want or need any ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This. I hope it trends more towards IP. Don't want or need any ice! Yeah, I am hopeful as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Wet Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah -- was a little surprised to see that, especially stated so categorically, after all the signals up through last night. Now I can shift gears from being worried about losing power to being depressed about once again having a beautiful snowpack assaulted just in time for Christmas. Amazing how this seems to happen more often than not. Yes, but if it happens this way we get to have power on Christmas, which would be kind of nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 GYX backs off and the euro goes colder. If the 12Z models come in cold again I think it's game on here for some ice. I thought that was interesting. I read their discussion and forecast right when I woke up, and assumed everything had warmed significantly. Then I saw the Euro comments. Who knows? At this point I don't care so much, and am focused on the period leading up to the New Years when I assume it will be getting stormy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah, I am hopeful as well Place to be is Northern Aroostook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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