HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Toss it. Remember it wasn't close with surface features the other day. It blows. Euro or bust. Not sure it can be completely tossed without looking at what it's track record/biases are in this particular type of set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Toss it. Remember it wasn't close with surface features the other day. It blows. Euro or bust. lol I'm guessing you're being facetious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 For the 1998 ice storm I was living just north of Burlington in Colchesterand working in Stowe. It was two completely different worlds. In Colchester telephone poles were snapped because of the ice and we were without power for 5 days. In Stowe there was decorative ice on the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 For the 1998 ice storm I was living just north of Burlington in Colchesterand working in Stowe. It was two completely different worlds. In Colchester telephone poles were snapped because of the ice and we were without power for 5 days. In Stowe there was decorative ice on the trees That scares me because I am in winooski. If we see anything like that I will lose heat. I have gas but it is a wall furnace that needs to be plugged in to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It looks like about an inch falls there with temps under 32F, but if some of it is sleet then you might be spared serious damage. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbtv Look at the entrenched cold just up the road from you in CYUL.... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=cyul That scares me because I am in winooski. If we see anything like that I will lose heat. I have gas but it is a wall furnace that needs to be plugged in to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That scares me because I am in winooski. If we see anything like that I will lose heat. I have gas but it is a wall furnace that needs to be plugged in to work. As long as the boundary is south of BTV and the winds out of the north, that cold low level air in southern Quebec will continue draining down. I was just looking over the GFS and NAM MOS data, and those have BTV and MVL seeing similar temperatures (colder at MVL on Sunday morning though), while MPV remains above freezing throughout the event. Interesting gradient as MPV at 1,200ft is a classic ice spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 There is usually a 2,000ft layer where the normal dynamics of temp decreasing wih height apply before you hit the inversion. Thats why te ORH hills got Nailed in the 2008 iceslorm. Yeah I see that all the time here in mixed events... its funny because a lot of Mets always hammer the "lower elevations" for ice, but then 1,000-3,000ft gets destroyed at like 29F while the people at 350ft in the "lower elevations" were 32-33F during the whole event. At the ski resort, in 99% of these events, the worst icing and coldest temperatures are at our 2,500ft station, but 1,500ft base is usually pretty close, while down in town its warmed above freezing below 1,000ft. We usually end up with a temp profile that looks like this, and then ends up confusing people when all the TV mets said the mountain valleys will get the most ice, with less at higher elevations: 4,000ft...35F RN 2,500ft...29F ZR 1,500ft...30F ZR 750ft...33F RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Great perspective powder freak , it almost seems to confusing to convey to joe 6 pack on the tv Question for you , how does VT climo for icing work, friend who has house at vermont tech college approx 1420' (Randolph) is that a heavy ice spot, if boundary gets south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I have seen it plenty of times out here west of KALB. Cold tends to siphon down the Champlain/Hudson Valleys and at 1k feet here I'm always colder than ALB with more ZR and sometimes I'm even colder than up at GLF in the valley. Yeah I see that all the time here in mixed events... its funny because a lot of Mets always hammer the "lower elevations" for ice, but then 1,000-3,000ft gets destroyed at like 29F while the people at 350ft in the "lower elevations" were 32-33F during the whole event. At the ski resort, in 99% of these events, the worst icing and coldest temperatures are at our 2,500ft station, but 1,500ft base is usually pretty close, while down in town its warmed above freezing below 1,000ft. We usually end up with a temp profile that looks like this, and then ends up confusing people when all the TV mets said the mountain valleys will get the most ice, with less at higher elevations: 4,000ft...35F RN 2,500ft...29F ZR 1,500ft...30F ZR 750ft...33F RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ski lifts cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 https://twitter.com/joejoycenecn/status/413840102415011840 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Here is the gfs precip at hr 72. All of NH under freezing rain - and this is a model that has a hard time picking up on lower level cold. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=18&fhr=25&field=ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Please explain this to me, in 98 I went for a weenie drive through VT up to Jay peak then to N Maine.,the elevations were far more destructed than the valleys, seems elevation rather than Latitude played a big role, how does this occur when temps are warmer at height on all soundings. it looked like tornadic damage with all the sheared off hillsides, worse at the peaks, I've seen the same in VT during more mundane icing events. I think a look at the soundings would probably show temp decreasing with height until hitting an elevated warm layer. The summits were below that warm layer. It does still call into question what is causing damming above (or at least at the level of) ridge tops. Admittedly I have little understanding of the physics of cold air damming other than the usual layman's "banked up against the mountains" theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ski lifts entombed in ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nam still runnin mild overall. Barely issues in ne nh verbatim, central maine isnt escaping frz any which way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I remember in 1998 in Brunswick ME driving up the roads and dodging trees that were bent over the road. Anyways my thoughts are 0.7-0.9 QPF all Freezing Rain here in Brunswick. This could be an ugly situation for many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That is just an ugly sight to see for the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think Brunswick could be borderline , esp the south side of town. Close to ocean, i mean perhaps u just get a 32/33 cold rain most of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think Brunswick could be borderline , esp the south side of town. Close to ocean, i mean perhaps u just get a 32/33 cold rain most of time I am in the NE corner of town farthest away from the ocean. I forgot to mention that the storm total is 0.7-0.9 QPF and most of that is FZRA. I feel the stationary front will stay off shore. Sunday after the main precip has moved away the temps will come up to 32-35F however during Saturday Night into Sunday the temps stay 28-31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 As long as the boundary is south of BTV and the winds out of the north, that cold low level air in southern Quebec will continue draining down. I was just looking over the GFS and NAM MOS data, and those have BTV and MVL seeing similar temperatures (colder at MVL on Sunday morning though), while MPV remains above freezing throughout the event. Interesting gradient as MPV at 1,200ft is a classic ice spot. I've never really thought of MPV as a great icing spot. It is located on a pretty wide plateau and cold often drains off into the valleys. I'm sure that you could probably convince me otherwise with stats but it never seems like this area gets hit particularly hard with ice - which I am fine with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The 1998 ice was very elevational as one neared the Whites, incl;uding a "sandwich" effect: mostly RA in Gorham, NH to massive destruction at 2,000' to January's warmest ever on the Rockpile. However, in the Kennebec and Androscoggin drainages downstream from the mts, elevation appeared to be much less important, and I even saw some aspect effect - north to east aspects had more ice, perhaps because they accreted more than other directions during the lighter precip, while the heavier stuff treated everyone the same. I saw one of the best examples of this in autumn 1998 while traveling east on the Hurricane Mountain Road in NH/Maine, north of IZG. Damage was modest on the west-facing NH section, got worse but not terrible at the height of land, but perhaps 200' in elevation down the east slope was terrible, including the most totally destroyed forest stand I saw anywhere. It was mostly beech which had been about 60' tall and were 10-15" in diameter. Beech is a strong wood, but once the load gets heavy enough, things really go downhill. This stand had essentially 100% loss of limbs, which were piled 5-6' deep all around the "asparagus trees", which probably then died. In Hebron, Maine, where I tracked recovery in a stand with 60% crown loss from ice nearly 3" thick, beech had no regrowth near the breaks and the larger ones died, though a few mid-sized ones had sprouts near the bottom of the tree. That's amazing stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 yeah but it's looking a little better to me...baby steps This is the warmest run yet ... I understand what people want, but this isn't the case... Unless you want baby-steps in the warm direction. But the NAM sucks at that time range. GFS looks like it is staying course, but not sure how it will handle the fields when it lifts that wave through NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS Dendrite wx station cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This is the warmest run yet ... I understand what people want, but this isn't the case... Unless you want baby-steps in the warm direction. But the NAM sucks at that time range. GFS looks like it is staying course, but not sure how it will handle the fields when it lifts that wave through NYS. Ah. I interpreted it wrong then and only looked at it through 48. Deleted post since analysis was way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 0z gfs iceeee powderfreak good luck Sunday temps drop below 32 into n orh hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS looks similar to 18z. Still much colder than the NAM across NH especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS looks similar to 18z. Still much colder than the NAM across NH especially.The 32 degree surface line is on the NH Mass border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 NAM is a POS and will correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 NAM is a POS and will correct. Agree, Tomorrow night, Or Saturday night, At least it ticked in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 NAM is a POS and will correct. I thought the NAM actually looked more like the 12z euro than the 00z gfs did. Big difference in the position of the surface boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.