tamarack Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Its because of the high position. Also, the respective aspects of the mountains, mainly southerly in NH and SE to east in Maine, might affect CAD strenght. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 sfc low goes over my head this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 1998 ice was very elevational as one neared the Whites, incl;uding a "sandwich" effect: mostly RA in Gorham, NH to massive destruction at 2,000' to January's warmest ever on the Rockpile. However, in the Kennebec and Androscoggin drainages downstream from the mts, elevation appeared to be much less important, and I even saw some aspect effect - north to east aspects had more ice, perhaps because they accreted more than other directions during the lighter precip, while the heavier stuff treated everyone the same. I saw one of the best examples of this in autumn 1998 while traveling east on the Hurricane Mountain Road in NH/Maine, north of IZG. Damage was modest on the west-facing NH section, got worse but not terrible at the height of land, but perhaps 200' in elevation down the east slope was terrible, including the most totally destroyed forest stand I saw anywhere. It was mostly beech which had been about 60' tall and were 10-15" in diameter. Beech is a strong wood, but once the load gets heavy enough, things really go downhill. This stand had essentially 100% loss of limbs, which were piled 5-6' deep all around the "asparagus trees", which probably then died. In Hebron, Maine, where I tracked recovery in a stand with 60% crown loss from ice nearly 3" thick, beech had no regrowth near the breaks and the larger ones died, though a few mid-sized ones had sprouts near the bottom of the tree. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 How is it that NH could torch but we're potentially cold over in ME? Are people referring to NH as southern NH or all of NH? If the latter, how is it that ME is carved out, away from the warm tongue from the south? I need a map to visualize. East to NE flow feeding in LL level cold air at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 sfc low goes over my head this run. Cold run for your area. Strengthens the CAD through the day Sunday. Soundings even drop MHT briefly below freezing at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah... image.jpg Enjoy! Too bad I'm going home tomorrow. Should be quite interesting to see what happens in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Now the 18z gfs cools down to the delight of forky and dentrite and snowman ( and me in Bartlett/ n conway!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 PF gets crushed with ice on this GFS run, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Areas like Sunday river have a snow bomb before flipping back to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah... image.jpg The sounding for KASH looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Im 20-25 miles north of Dendrite just south of Plymouth and the 1998 storm was devastating here. Time and time again I am so impressed with cold air daming coming down the Pemi river from the NE right into my area. it always seems to over preform. Every model seems to be different today and last night. 18Z NAM and 12Z Euro were warmer but now the 18Z GFS is colder again. A 34F rain is going to be so much different than a 29F freezing rain situation up here and it seems we are right on the fence. Guess its just wait and see for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Pickles go to Sugarloaf, should be a dumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The sounding for KASH looks similar.Except it's like 4C warmer at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Pickles go to Sugarloaf, should be a dumper Lol im not getting stranded at the 'loaf' noo way (if this trends milder). I have uncles cottage in Bartlett or gf's friend in Cornish, maine. Or a hotel in N conway. Sat nite is likely Bartlett, sun nite prob n conway. I wish this was gonna go to snow bc i have monday off and a free tix to wildcat to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Except it's like 4C warmer at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Except it's like 4C warmer at the sfc. oh - looked like it was freezing at 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Those are some Icy soundings for LEW. Youd probably lose qpf early on to IP on this run. That would be fine, I don't need all the ice, Looks like at the surface we never go above 32F even after the precip shuts off this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Actually I just went to the NCEP model site and compared the 3-hourly positions between the 12z and 18z GFS, and the 12z had the slightly better damming in the PP. Otherwise, I don't see any appreciable difference between the runs - fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 oh - looked like it was freezing at 72 hrs Its splitting hairs this far out but verbatim its like a 33f rain at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 My recollection of the precipitation from the 1998 ice storm around Sugarloaf was a mixture of snow/sleet and freezing rain in the Carabassett Valley with very little tree damage. We never lost power at Sugarloaf throughout the whole storm. Skiing off the Superquad at about 3,300' it was tropically warm with high southerly winds gusts and plain rain, while the base of the mountain was calm with sleet/freezing rain and temperatures in the teens. Traveling southbound through Farmington/Livermore Falls/Jay etc, was like being in a freezing rain encased war zone with massive tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The fact that six people in nne are doing all the pisting here speaks volumes!!We are "pist" off about the prospects of damaging ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I am so excited about the warm up. I mean c'mon everyone is looking forward to a weekend filled with this isolated showers before 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. SaturdayA chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday NightShowers likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 42. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. SundayShowers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday NightA chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Actually I just went to the NCEP model site and compared the 3-hourly positions between the 12z and 18z GFS, and the 12z had the slightly better damming in the PP. Otherwise, I don't see any appreciable difference between the runs - fwiw. soundings are colder up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Considering the shift south in the GFS, it really doesn't look cold enough in NH and northern MA. This run actually gets the 2M 0C line right down to I-90 in NY State, not an area particularly known for cold air damming. Im 20-25 miles north of Dendrite just south of Plymouth and the 1998 storm was devastating here. Time and time again I am so impressed with cold air daming coming down the Pemi river from the NE right into my area. it always seems to over preform. Every model seems to be different today and last night. 18Z NAM and 12Z Euro were warmer but now the 18Z GFS is colder again. A 34F rain is going to be so much different than a 29F freezing rain situation up here and it seems we are right on the fence. Guess its just wait and see for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Please explain this to me, in 98 I went for a weenie drive through VT up to Jay peak then to N Maine.,the elevations were far more destructed than the valleys, seems elevation rather than Latitude played a big role, how does this occur when temps are warmer at height on all soundings. it looked like tornadic damage with all the sheared off hillsides, worse at the peaks,My recollection of 1998 is not nearly as encyclopedic as others here but I recall that the real damage started as you went towards the CPV on I89 and at elevation east of the spine. I didn't lose power or trees but there was considerable damage above 1800' or so here in central VT and in the CPV around BTV on north. It seemed like a strange setup at the time. Like I said though, my memory of it isn't the best, possibly because it wasn't a huge impact in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS is considerably colder than the NAM and the Euro at the surface...weird. Usually it tends to be warm with CAD set-ups. The surface front, the low track, and the high position are south of the other two models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 1998 ice was very elevational as one neared the Whites, incl;uding a "sandwich" effect: mostly RA in Gorham, NH to massive destruction at 2,000' to January's warmest ever on the Rockpile. However, in the Kennebec and Androscoggin drainages downstream from the mts, elevation appeared to be much less important, and I even saw some aspect effect - north to east aspects had more ice, perhaps because they accreted more than other directions during the lighter precip, while the heavier stuff treated everyone the same. I saw one of the best examples of this in autumn 1998 while traveling east on the Hurricane Mountain Road in NH/Maine, north of IZG. Damage was modest on the west-facing NH section, got worse but not terrible at the height of land, but perhaps 200' in elevation down the east slope was terrible, including the most totally destroyed forest stand I saw anywhere. It was mostly beech which had been about 60' tall and were 10-15" in diameter. Beech is a strong wood, but once the load gets heavy enough, things really go downhill. This stand had essentially 100% loss of limbs, which were piled 5-6' deep all around the "asparagus trees", which probably then died. In Hebron, Maine, where I tracked recovery in a stand with 60% crown loss from ice nearly 3" thick, beech had no regrowth near the breaks and the larger ones died, though a few mid-sized ones had sprouts near the bottom of the tree. I remember that. Hurricane Mt road area was decimated. I recall driving thru there months after and the devastation was unreal. I love driving that road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 My recollection of 1998 is not nearly as encyclopedic as others here but I recall that the real damage started as you went towards the CPV on I89 and at elevation east of the spine. I didn't lose power or trees but there was considerable damage above 1800' or so here in central VT and in the CPV around BTV on north. It seemed like a strange setup at the time. Like I said though, my memory of it isn't the best, possibly because it wasn't a huge impact in my area. I drove up for the event on a Wednesday and went up through western VT, north from the Berkshires on Rte 7. From what I recall, there was a sharp north/south cutoff in the Champlain valley. Driving up Rte 7 it was just south of Middlebury. North of there the ice picked up considerably. Quebec is where I saw really heavy coatings of ice and just south of Montreal is where I saw the collapsed pylons. I remember the border guard asking if I really wanted to go in, lol. I arrived in Montreal on Friday just as the power went out and became a refuge of sorts as everything shut down. I was stuck in Canada for several days with the border closed but coming south again on Monday. The damage was only notable in the higher elevations of the greens on my way home down I-89. I know you could see the zone for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS is considerably colder than the NAM and the Euro at the surface...weird. Usually it tends to be warm with CAD set-ups. The surface front, the low track, and the high position are south of the other two models. Toss it. Remember it wasn't close with surface features the other day. It blows. Euro or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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