Pre Xmas storm

[Sugarloaf1989]

I gave my father the heads up on the ice because if they lose power up there, pipes burst and sump pump fails. Both not good. I'd go up if it weren't for a 1yr old.

 

My brother lives in Montreal and he was without power for 10 days during the ice storm in 1998 with the temperature in his house down to 35F.

 

I just spoke with him and the local mets are calling for snow right now in Montreal, but caution that it could end up being freezing rain.

[dryslot]

i have cousins west of portland. thinking of chasing since i've never seen more than .25" ice

 

Don't plan on leaving to go back home if its significant anytime soon

[CoastalWx]

My brother lives in Montreal and he was without power for 10 days during the ice storm in 1998 with the temperature in his house down to 35F.

 

I just spoke with him and the local mets are calling for snow right now in Montreal, but caution that it could end up being freezing rain.

 

Parts of Canada are going to snow for over 48hrs near Montreal, unless this keeps coming north.

[dendrite]

Then there is the clown range RPM.

Wood-Nichols convective parameterization scheme?

[Sugarloaf1989]

Parts of Canada are going to snow for over 48hrs near Montreal, unless this keeps coming north.

 

I was skiing at Sugarloaf during the ice storm in 1998 and we had a mixture of sleet and freezing rain at the base of the mountain with the temperature holding at 17F. By the time the storm was over we had 1" of ice accreation and 6" of sleet.

 

We could not leave as roads further south in Kingfield/Farmington where impassible due to downed limbs/power lines + Maine was under a state of emergency with all non essential travel forbidden.

[CoastalWx]

Wood-Nichols convective parameterization scheme?

[Snow Bow]

No, I do not want it, I already been thru the one 1998, I will take SN/PL though, But i don't have any say in the matter, All i know, From past CAD experiences, This area holds the cold

I know, you want it about the same as I do. 08' was bad where I was but was living in MHT in 98 so that wasn't much of an issue.

[CoastalWx]

GDAS. Gulf stream Data Assimilation Scheme.

[mahk_webstah]

i have cousins west of portland. thinking of chasing since i've never seen more than .25" ice

You should do it!  I used to chase snowstorms a lot, but never an ice storm.  You can write the trip off - research!  And there is nice snowpack there, and I know how you feel about snowpack.

[Ginx snewx]

Please explain this to me, in 98 I went for a weenie drive through VT up to Jay peak then to N Maine.,the elevations were far more destructed than the valleys, seems elevation rather than Latitude played a big role, how does this occur when temps are warmer at height on all soundings. it looked like tornadic damage with all the sheared off hillsides, worse at the peaks,

[Tropopause_Fold]

Wood-Nichols convective parameterization scheme?

[Ginx snewx]

If the NAM is right, Ginxy is definitely warmer than model 2m temps.

I think it handles southerly/south westerly flow off the ocean well, clouds and ocean flow will keep us in that range.

[CoastalWx]

Please explain this to me, in 98 I went for a weenie drive through VT up to Jay peak then to N Maine.,the elevations were far more destructed than the valleys, seems elevation rather than Latitude played a big role, how does this occur when temps are warmer at height on all soundings. it looked like tornadic damage with all the sheared off hillsides, worse at the peaks,

Where have you been?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Please explain this to me, in 98 I went for a weenie drive through VT up to Jay peak then to N Maine.,the elevations were far more destructed than the valleys, seems elevation rather than Latitude played a big role, how does this occur when temps are warmer at height on all soundings. it looked like tornadic damage with all the sheared off hillsides, worse at the peaks,

because it's actually a bit cooler a bit higher up...before it starts to warm.

[HoarfrostHubb]

GDAS. Gulf stream Data Assimilation Scheme.

Be nice. Forky Claus is watching

Any ice concerns here?

[Tropopause_Fold]

because it's actually a bit cooler a bit higher up...before it starts to warm.

typically in the soundings you see that very shallow layer that is just a hair colder just above the surface...then the dramatic warming just above that layer. 

[grambo]

That's ugly. We usually will warm up in these situations eventually up here (I see most models eventually flip us into the 35F range between 12z and 18z Sunday) quicker than you guys further east...but I've been here long enough to know that here on the east slope of the Spine it won't happen easily...and it may be too little too late.

What I find interesting on the map is that the entirety of the Champlain Valley, west of the spine, looks ripe for icing. At least that's what those colors on the map are telling me. Are valleys something this model does not account for? Usually the Champlain Valley funnels warm air north quite easily. And I don't remember if it was in this thread or not where you explained that cold air could bleed down the valley as well. What is looking more likely at the moment? Warm air heading farther north or cold air further south?  

[Ginx snewx]

Where have you been?

I know PF posted his area often rains at the top while 2K and 1.5 freeze.

[Ginx snewx]

because it's actually a bit cooler a bit higher up...before it starts to warm.

I know but shouldn't valleys be colder from the start in this setup?

[forkyfork]

BTV's current projection...

 

i'd curve the right side of those lines to the SE a bit

[CoastalWx]

I know but shouldn't valleys be colder from the start in this setup?

There is usually a 2,000ft layer where the normal dynamics of temp decreasing wih height apply before you hit the inversion. Thats why te ORH hills got Nailed in the 2008 iceslorm.

[Modfan]

Anyone in the know what to take a stab at a New England map as to what (At this Point) we might see?  

[Lava Rock]

How is it that NH could torch but we're potentially cold over in ME? Are people referring to NH as southern NH or all of NH? If the latter, how is it that ME is carved out, away from the warm tongue from the south? I need a map to visualize.

[dryslot]

Cold GFS

[CT Rain]

Then there is the clown range RPM.

That begins at hour 4 on the RPM

[40/70 Benchmark]

How is it that NH could torch but we're potentially cold over in ME? Are people referring to NH as southern NH or all of NH? If the latter, how is it that ME is carved out, away from the warm tongue from the south? I need a map to visualize.

Its because of the high position.

[moneypitmike]

The fact that six people in nne are doing all the pisting here speaks volumes!!

[wx2fish]

Cold GFS

 

Those are some Icy soundings for LEW. Youd probably lose qpf early on to IP on this run. 

[tamarack]

Please explain this to me, in 98 I went for a weenie drive through VT up to Jay peak then to N Maine.,the elevations were far more destructed than the valleys, seems elevation rather than Latitude played a big role, how does this occur when temps are warmer at height on all soundings. it looked like tornadic damage with all the sheared off hillsides, worse at the peaks,

 

The 1998 ice was very elevational as one neared the Whites, incl;uding a "sandwich" effect: mostly RA in Gorham, NH to massive destruction at 2,000' to January's warmest ever on the Rockpile.  However, in the Kennebec and Androscoggin drainages downstream from the mts, elevation appeared to be much less important, and I even saw some aspect effect - north to east aspects had more ice, perhaps because they accreted more than other directions during the lighter precip, while the heavier stuff treated everyone the same.  I saw one of the best examples of this in autumn 1998 while traveling east on the Hurricane Mountain Road in NH/Maine, north of IZG.  Damage was modest on the west-facing NH section, got worse but not terrible at the height of land, but perhaps 200' in elevation down the east slope was terrible, including the most totally destroyed forest stand I saw anywhere.  It was mostly beech which had been about 60' tall and were 10-15" in diameter.  Beech is a strong wood, but once the load gets heavy enough, things really go downhill.  This stand had essentially 100% loss of limbs, which were piled 5-6' deep all around the "asparagus trees", which probably then died.  In Hebron, Maine, where I tracked recovery in a stand with 60% crown loss from ice nearly 3" thick, beech had no regrowth near the breaks and the larger ones died, though a few mid-sized ones had sprouts near the bottom of the tree. 

[Ginx snewx]

There is usually a 2,000ft layer where the normal dynamics of temp decreasing wih height apply before you hit the inversion. Thats why te ORH hills got Nailed in the 2008 iceslorm.

Thanks