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Pre Xmas storm

mahk_webstah

By mahk_webstah,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Generally want to see 1.5"+ of QPF as ZR. That starts to cause monster issues. If Saturday's stuff is ZR up there and so is Sunday's then it's trouble. Always hard to figure out what's sleet and what's ZR and how much QPF falls. 

 

The way I look at it is that it may be a narrow area getting the crippling part and that may be more of the srn end. You know models are usually too warm on the srn end of the CAD wedge. However, the hope there is that we dryslot in the mid levels and the heaviest QPF is more in the colder areas further north where it's more IP/SN.  I probably shouldn't say NNE as in stating the whole area...I just mean the NNE region in general looks bad.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted 
Date: 66 hour AVN valid 6Z SUN 22 DEC 13
Station: KRUM
Latitude:   44.53
Longitude: -70.53
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   133                                                                 
SFC  976   330  -0.6  -1.0  97  0.4  -0.7  39   5 274.5 275.1 273.6 284.4  3.64
  2  950   544  -0.9  -1.4  96  0.5  -1.0  40   8 276.3 276.9 274.7 286.3  3.64
  3  900   977   1.0   0.6  97  0.4   0.8  86   2 282.5 283.3 279.0 294.9  4.44
  4  850  1438   1.8   1.5  97  0.4   1.7 209   9 288.1 289.0 282.3 302.3  5.01
  5  800  1927   1.0   0.6  97  0.4   0.8 231  18 292.2 293.1 284.1 306.7  5.00 

Well that's a sleet sounding. 

After 6 hours of frzrn, that's a brutal ice storm for the foothills

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Fro  what I could see that melt off never happened in northern NY and QB in '98. I guess Maine briefly warmed.

The real issue even beyond this as it does not warm up after like it did in 1998 to melt off some of the ice that was on the trees and power poles, So we could have ongoing power issues as stuff continues to break from being stressed

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted 
Date: 3.5 day AVN valid 0Z MON 23 DEC 13
Station: KRUM
Latitude:   44.53
Longitude: -70.53
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    68                                                                 
SFC  968   330  -1.8  -2.1  98  0.2  -1.9  95   6 273.9 274.4 272.9 283.1  3.39
  2  950   477  -1.0  -1.3  98  0.3  -1.1 118   8 276.2 276.8 274.7 286.2  3.66
  3  900   916   6.4   5.9  96  0.5   6.1 200  23 288.1 289.2 283.9 306.3  6.46
  4  850  1387   7.3   6.7  96  0.6   7.0 223  42 293.8 295.1 287.0 314.8  7.28
  5  800  1885   5.2   4.8  97  0.4   5.0 230  51 296.7 297.9 287.6 316.4  6.74 

Unfortunately thats a very short period of snow/pellets for the great majority of the Maine area, Rumford is pretty far north, looks like 1+ of ice even in rumford with south of there 1.5+

 

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

This could actually end up pretty weird looking...like a backdoor CF like Scott mentioned yesterday. Places like MHT and even into NE MA could be in the 40s on Saturday night and then flash freeze to like 28-30F on a NNE wind as the high presses the boundary south. Obviously that is contingient on seeing the high in the GFS-esque position and strong enough, but it clearly is working the boundary southwest as the pressure gradient starts to tighten.

 

If the high ends up weaker and/or further northwest, then this wouldn't be the case, but its something we'll have to watch.

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MainePhotog

MainePhotog

Posted
Posted

Can always use the gas in the John Deere tractor so that's not and issue or the vehicle as well

 

I don't have a genny, but should be set with heat from the wood stove. I can cook on it too. Plus I have a ton of battery operated LED lanterns, lights. etc. I just called my daughter and asked them to put off the trip for now.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Places in VT get smacked good too, this is PFs hood

ate: 60 hour AVN valid 0Z SUN 22 DEC 13
Station: KMVL
Latitude:   44.53
Longitude: -72.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   139                                                                 
SFC  969   386  -2.6  -2.7  99  0.1  -2.7 352   6 273.0 273.5 272.1 281.7  3.22
  2  950   546  -3.0  -3.1  99  0.1  -3.1   0   8 274.1 274.7 272.8 282.8  3.19
  3  900   978   0.5   0.3  98  0.2   0.4 288   5 282.1 282.8 278.7 294.2  4.35
  4  850  1438   1.3   1.1  98  0.2   1.3 245  17 287.5 288.4 281.9 301.4  4.88
  5  800  1926   0.3   0.1  98  0.2   0.2 245  26 291.5 292.3 283.5 305.4  4.80
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

This could actually end up pretty weird looking...like a backdoor CF like Scott mentioned yesterday. Places like MHT and even into NE MA could be in the 40s on Saturday night and then flash freeze to like 28-30F on a NNE wind as the high presses the boundary south. Obviously that is contingient on seeing the high in the GFS-esque position and strong enough, but it clearly is working the boundary southwest as the pressure gradient starts to tighten.

 

If the high ends up weaker and/or further northwest, then this wouldn't be the case, but its something we'll have to watch.

 

The hi-res Euro almost busts ORH out into the warmer air faster than BOS. It might not work out that way...but the sign is there.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Fro  what I could see that melt off never happened in northern NY and QB in '98. I guess Maine briefly warmed.

 

I remember for a while all HydroQuebec could do was bang the wires to remove ice for several days.  They had to do that first before they could start repairs.

 

If I were anyone facing an icing issue, in addition to the supplies you're thinking about, make sure you have a full tank of gas and lots of cash.  People seem to miss those two.

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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I mean I/m not saying it would happen that way, but it gives credence to a more SW-NE temp gradient possibly.

Ok - yeah I just wanted to make sure I understood what you were saying.

 

I am getting the feeling I am just going to miss out on getting a decent ice storm experience unfortunately.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I remember for a while all HydroQuebec could do was bang the wires to remove ice for several days.  They had to do that first before they could start repairs.

 

If I were anyone facing an icing issue, in addition to the supplies you're thinking about, make sure you have a full tank of gas and lots of cash.  People seem to miss those two.

This was the Quebec sounding that morning

Maniwaki QB CN CWMW 1 46.38 -75.97 170 71722 or nearby prior site

Date:1200Z  6 JAN 98
Station: CWMW
WMO ident:  71722
Latitude:   46.38
Longitude: -75.97
Elevation: 170.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   135                            360   3                              
SFC  996   170  -0.9  -0.9 100  0.0  -0.9 360   3 272.6 273.2 272.5 282.3  3.59
  2  953   518  -3.5  -4.0  96  0.5  -3.7  98   7 273.4 273.9 272.1 281.5  2.98
  3  925   753  -2.7  -3.2  96  0.5  -2.9 165  10 276.5 277.1 274.3 285.5  3.26
  4  921   787  -2.7  -3.1  97  0.4  -2.9 171  10 276.9 277.4 274.6 286.0  3.30
  5  895  1017   2.4   2.0  97  0.4   2.2 212   8 284.4 285.3 280.6 298.3  4.94
  6  850  1435   2.4   2.0  97  0.4   2.2 285   6 288.7 289.6 282.8 303.5  5.20
  7  837  1560   2.6   2.2  97  0.4   2.4 283   7 290.1 291.1 283.6 305.5  5.36
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mattlacroix4

mattlacroix4

Posted
Posted

So could someone give me thoughts on impact I may see this weekend. I will be staying Sat-Mon at a cabin right along the White Mountain National Forest boundary in Jackson, NH at 1100 feet elevation. Could I see a few inches of snow and sleet with a general freezing rain event after? Appreciate the thoughts, thanks.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

This could actually end up pretty weird looking...like a backdoor CF like Scott mentioned yesterday. Places like MHT and even into NE MA could be in the 40s on Saturday night and then flash freeze to like 28-30F on a NNE wind as the high presses the boundary south. Obviously that is contingient on seeing the high in the GFS-esque position and strong enough, but it clearly is working the boundary southwest as the pressure gradient starts to tighten.

 

If the high ends up weaker and/or further northwest, then this wouldn't be the case, but its something we'll have to watch.

 

Forgive me if you folks have already covered...

 

It appears the colder appeal has more to do with the strength/timing of the SW ejection/impulse as it rides up the western wall of the SE ridge, and how that has a transitive effect on the amt of +PP that is allowed to settle into C-NNE.  

 

In simple terms, stronger 00z run, more mid level "punch" brings the boundary further NE; contrasting, the 12z is enough weaker with the impulse that a weaker wave evolves that is less capable of displacing the boundary NE. 

 

Not sure we can trust the GFS is correct with these differences.  Not that it matters much, but the NAM has horrible discontinuity in it's handling of major features just between the 00z and 12z runs - go figure. 

 

Agree, though, that this is a nice candidate for a cold tuck, and that it may not start out a freezing affair for SE NH, but ends up knocking back mid way.

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted

I don't have a genny, but should be set with heat from the wood stove. I can cook on it too. Plus I have a ton of battery operated LED lanterns, lights. etc. I just called my daughter and asked them to put off the trip for now.

Same here, but we've got a lot of food in the fridge that I suppose we could put into coolers and move outside.No showers would suck if it was more than 2 days, although I can take one at work. Wife will be unhappy. We live down a 1/4 mile camp road with nobody else. CMP owns the power lines, but not the poles. Thankfully most of trees are far enough away from the lines, so we should be all set, but if not, we'd be screwed as I'm sure we'd be last on the list for repair work. I'm having flashbacks of our builder asking us if we wanted to add a genny when we built last year. We were out of $$$, so that was a no-go, but wishing we had it now. I was in CT in 98, so only heard from my parents how bad it was. They lost power for a week I think. Ugh!

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