SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 lol...you need to learn the context of chucking the hot dog at someone. you don't just award wieners and buns for every post. Ha - I am a loose cannon. Maybe someone can give me a basics of weenie chucking - ray? You seem to have it down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 What do you think I'll max at? Saturday may be a mild day before the front sags south. If the front waits until late day, it may be 45-50 there briefly. Clearly if it sags south into your area at like 11am it is a different story. I think you wedge in Saturday aftn and stay that way until at least Sunday night. It's quiter possible you briefly spike to low 50s before fropa Monday morning, but then fall. My guess is your white Christmas potential is very high. Clearly every mile south the front makes it will dictate how warm and for how long. I could see a town like Attleboro torching Sunday afternoon and then taking 12 hrs to move 20 miles into your hood. So as you can see, the forecast is not an easy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Ha - I am a loose cannon. Maybe someone can give me a basics of weenie chucking - ray? You seem to have it down... Here is one way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 ECENS and GEFS have warm front over central VT and NH. Good luck with verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 OceanStwx (at least that's who I think it was) provided this link last night. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ I am sure many already know about it but it is an amazing site. May this belongs in the banter thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Here is one way We need to dig up the old "Fiyahhhhh!" gif that Eric made a couple of years back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Saturday may be a mild day before the front sags south. If the front waits until late day, it may be 45-50 there briefly. Clearly if it sags south into your area at like 11am it is a different story. I think you wedge in Saturday aftn and stay that way until at least Sunday night. It's quiter possible you briefly spike to low 50s before fropa Monday morning, but then fall. My guess is your white Christmas potential is very high. Clearly every mile south the front makes it will dictate how warm and for how long. I could see a town like Attleboro torching Sunday afternoon and then taking 12 hrs to move 20 miles into your hood. So as you can see, the forecast is not an easy one. I agree. I'm suprised at the amound of red taggers expecting that front to bodily sweep so easily through a deep snowpack, with a high of that intensity positioned so optinally. The bell is about to ring, heralding the start of class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Saturday may be a mild day before the front sags south. If the front waits until late day, it may be 45-50 there briefly. Clearly if it sags south into your area at like 11am it is a different story. I think you wedge in Saturday aftn and stay that way until at least Sunday night. It's quiter possible you briefly spike to low 50s before fropa Monday morning, but then fall. My guess is your white Christmas potential is very high. Clearly every mile south the front makes it will dictate how warm and for how long. I could see a town like Attleboro torching Sunday afternoon and then taking 12 hrs to move 20 miles into your hood. So as you can see, the forecast is not an easy one. that's a really good summary, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think my warmest hours will be as the front approaches, mixing out any residual inversion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 We need to dig up the old "Fiyahhhhh!" gif that Eric made a couple of years back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Happy birthday to you! 45 years young. A gift to you this year is snow cover and hopefully good health and plenty more snow. Have a great day! Happy birthday Met smokes Herb, I was up your way, great snow cover for your birthday. Amazing amount of frozen waterways. The climo thaw comes at a bad time but man the analog package going forward is fantastic. Thanks guys - Let's hope we can roll into 2014 in 1994 style. Just sucks having to lose it all but you guys probably remember that happening in 1996. I think that still hurts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I have a practical reason for wanting the snowpack to survive. I snowshoe almost daily - a 3.5 mile loop out back and sitting around in 0F wx looking out at bare ground is depressing. People who downhill ski probably don't care about snowpack, but snow shoers rely on nature's largesse. I'm hoping to hang on a good six inch frozen base and then I know I will get numerous minor bouts of LES to cover that again. Exactly, people who don"t play in it, don't have kids who do, see no intrinsic value. Charlie Brown window watchers I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Thanks guys - Let's hope we can roll into 2014 in 1994 style. Just sucks having to lose it all but you guys probably remember that happening in 1996. I think that still hurts! 1996 sucked, but it was actually in retrospective pretty incredible to live through and witness, and of course what followed by pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 New NAM is a torch for a lot of SNE. Seems a little aggressive, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 New NAM is a torch for a lot of SNE. Seems a little aggressive, but who knows. I'll start watching the NAM seriously tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 New NAM is a torch for a lot of SNE. Seems a little aggressive, but who knows. Focus on the Euro - it likely has the right idea on the lower level cold. I think it has shown the cold remaining more consistently than the other models if I am not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Focus on the Euro - it likely has the right idea on the lower level cold. I think it has shown the cold remaining more consistently than the other models if I am not mistaken. I'm just commenting on what it shows. When I mentioned it may be aggressive..it's because I didn't really buy that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Bailing when the going gets tough since 2003. Here is one way LOL Thanks guys - Let's hope we can roll into 2014 in 1994 style. Just sucks having to lose it all but you guys probably remember that happening in 1996. I think that still hurts! Happy birthday. New NAM is a torch for a lot of SNE. Seems a little aggressive, but who knows. Ahem....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 LOL Happy birthday. Ahem....... Please see other post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Please see other post. I just can't understand how that model can be that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 bunsb.jpg LOL I love the fact that there are actually 21 buns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 LOL I love the fact that there are actually 21 buns. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yes That was BIrving's creation. Gon' ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I have a practical reason for wanting the snowpack to survive. I snowshoe almost daily - a 3.5 mile loop out back and sitting around in 0F wx looking out at bare ground is depressing. People who downhill ski probably don't care about snowpack, but snow shoers rely on nature's largesse. I'm hoping to hang on a good six inch frozen base and then I know I will get numerous minor bouts of LES to cover that again. I share the sentiment about the snowpack. I cross country ski on it as many days a week as possible. I'm afraid we are headed for Torchistan this weekend though. My guess is mushy piles left in the woods with large areas of bare ground by Monday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 That was BIrving's creation. Gon' ice yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I would like it to survive, especially for my young nieces coming up for Christmas. Unfortunately they will be here just in time to see us return to bare ground. This is a complete Grinch storm (at least for MBY in the CPV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hydro boys are leanin cooooold for Sunday's 12z boundary placement iceeeee http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polski Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I have a practical reason for wanting the snowpack to survive. I snowshoe almost daily - a 3.5 mile loop out back and sitting around in 0F wx looking out at bare ground is depressing. People who downhill ski probably don't care about snowpack, but snow shoers rely on nature's largesse. I'm hoping to hang on a good six inch frozen base and then I know I will get numerous minor bouts of LES to cover that again. People who downhill ski only on groomers with machine-made snow probably don't care about snowpack. People like me who prefer to downhill ski on natural snow trails, in the woods and/or backcountry care very much. That said, snowpack can be replenished quickly if things line up right; a bad ice storm can wreck the woods for the winter or even beyond. As much as I'd hate a torch I'd take it over a bad ice storm without hesitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks like the 12z GFS is coming in further north with the boundary. A trend since 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hydro boys are leanin cooooold for Sunday's 12z boundary placement iceeeee http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg How can you tell where the Ice may be on that map? anywhere north of the front? Not to mention they have the front over N NJ like Kevin mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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