SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 snowNH? Its not even close to being in range but sometimes rightNo not SnowNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 No not SnowNH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I could be wrong, but it looks like the Srefs came in a little cooler? I know they are ultimately just out of range, but hr 87 from 15z and hr 81 from 21z were certainly cooler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 They're both pretty prime locations for ice. They will hold onto the CAD some of the longest in the area. Bartlett because of the elevation assist may have more potential ice because the cold dome usually maxes out just below 1000 feet. Thanks. Plan on either or so long as i can take concord coach sat at 1pm from boston. do we think icing begins ( potentially) by sat afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 was looking forward to our annual trip back home for winter but I'm wondering now if we'll see snow (falling or even OTG) in northern Tolland Co., CT between 12/21 and 1/4? Am I reading that you all are thinking it might not be as big a warm up as advertised/feared earlier and that there are a few real chances for cold/snow in this period? We have been colder than average for north central NC/south central VA this winter but looking 70's this weekend. (low 20's here tonight but blast furnace starts tomorrow...). I hope I'm not carting up warm air with us on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Best protection against a power outage in my book Is a Wood stove...although a generator is still needed if not on town water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Thanks. Plan on either or so long as i can take concord coach sat at 1pm from boston. do we think icing begins ( potentially) by sat afternoon? Potentially yes. Models indicate the first wave pushing the front through the area Friday but the first surge of moisture along the boundary will be arriving late Saturday. Can't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 This is going to wreck the holidays for a lot of people. There is nothing good about this storm, unless you like prolonged power outages and people unable to travel. The timing is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS significantly warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Best protection against a power outage in my book Is a Wood stove...although a generator is still needed if not on town water Agree and better than pellet for outages. Obviously it's not practical in more urban locales but as a heat source it's less expensive than gas or oil and is a locally sourced fuel. Typed from my 76F living room. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS significantly warmer?Yup. Torch instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Here is a pic from quebec from the 1998 storm So crazy, I don't think the 2008 storm was on that level, no high tension towers down around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS significantly warmer? Definitely warmer than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yup. Torch instead. Definitely warmer than the past couple of runs, but for the most part it doesn't really change the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yup. Torch instead. Stay the course...this is the model movement back and forth some were expecting. Based on Nam and GFS, the Euro likely will come in warmer. Hopefully 6z and forward we will see a shift back to cooler solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Stay the course...this is the model movement back and forth some were expecting. Based on Nam and GFS, the Euro likely will come in warmer. Hopefully 6z and forward we will see a shift back to cooler solutions. You're definitely in the region where the models will waffle on the placement of the sub-freezing air. The 00z GFS is no less of an ice storm, it's just displaced farther north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 You're definitely in the region where the models will waffle on the placement of the sub-freezing air. The 00z GFS is no less of an ice storm, it's just displaced farther north this run. Ultimately, I think we trend colder. You can me for that, but as many have pointed out, the snow pack and strong high up north I think ultimately wins out and we see ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Ultimately, I think we trend colder. You can me for that, but as many have pointed out, the snow pack and strong high up north I think ultimately wins out and we see ZR. I won't because I'm in agreement for the most part. Ultimately that high pressure will be the deciding factor, because in reality if that high is not in place the warmth will care little about the existing snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It would make a big difference around ALB. From a dammed in raw Sunday followed by a several hour torch. To this new GFS run blowing the warm front through earlier and torching us for close to 24 hours. Means a lot more snow devastation. You're definitely in the region where the models will waffle on the placement of the sub-freezing air. The 00z GFS is no less of an ice storm, it's just displaced farther north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Clearly folks want the cold to win, whether icing is in play or not (and it will be in CNE ...most likely), but one upshot there is that if the weaker polar high scenario works out, the flow is fast and progressive. That will limit the assault of warmth. Having said that, the flow being fast and progressive still doesn't support the latitude placement. But the correlation is not 1::1 so stranger things have happened. I like Phil's idea of me being 36 and calm; I can really see that happening. I still don't have a lot of confidence here. The problem is, this is another cycle, and discontinuity with details. These details have immense consequences. I think if you live in N. Conway NH, you got a good shot of ice contention...perhaps as far S as CON and Manchester. Either way, folks S of there probably don't spend a heck of a lot of time in melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 How far north did the gfs move the Southern extent of the significant icing area" (in say NH) from 18z to 0z gfs. I have a difficulty finding a link that shows a 32 isotherm and thus interpreting how far it moved north. I.e from manchester to Laconia) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 How far north did the gfs move the Southern extent of the significant icing area" (in say NH) from 18z to 0z gfs. I have a difficulty finding a link that shows a 32 isotherm and thus interpreting how far it moved north. I.e from manchester to Laconia) ? Conway it looked like at hr 84 and after that it is north of the border unless you are in ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 How far north did the gfs move the Southern extent of the significant icing area" (in say NH) from 18z to 0z gfs. I have a difficulty finding a link that shows a 32 isotherm and thus interpreting how far it moved north. I.e from manchester to Laconia) ? http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Click GFS and then compare products from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Click GFS and then compare products from previous runs. Wow great site - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Thanks ,one question. surface temps are depicted above freezing alot further north in gyx zone when a good chunk of qpf moved in on sunday pm. I.E at 18z sunday Seems like it anyway, at least wrt to amount of accretion for say IZG . N conway, ossipee etc even to past sunday river. I guess if most of the qpf falls in the first 3 hr increment temps may still be below 32 for a large chunk of area. But either way lets see what gefs do. Just trying to learn. Great link ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Thanks ,one question. i dont get why i say it doesnr change gyx ice forecast, unless u mean ur not buying the 0z gfs, surface temps are depicted above freezing alot further north in gyx zone when a good chunk of qpf moved in on sunday pm. Seems like it anyway, at least wrt to amount of accretion for say IZG . I am not buying the 0z Gfs. It has ct up to the pike between 54 and 61 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It's true to itself I guess. That probably fits the model's depiction more or less. Course it might be wrong. I am not buying the 0z Gfs. It has ct up to the pike between 54 and 61 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I am not buying the 0z Gfs. It has ct up to the pike between 54 and 61 degrees. Id like to see the high trend stronger. The 0z GEFS were warmer too. Its gonna be ugly south of the sfc warm front. Well see what the euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Id like to see the high trend stronger. The 0z GEFS were warmer too. Its gonna be ugly south of the sfc warm front. Well see what the euro does. Waffle time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The NAM's surface high(s) in Quebec is significantly weaker than the GFS and the Euro. My guess is some of the 500mb troughiness in central Canada in the northern branch is screwing up the confluence and the cold air delivery. Did the gfs/gefs weaken the high for the same reason, anyone. seems like its a very subtle change in high strength (at least the area shown thru Canada on map) just seems like it noses down less for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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