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Pre Xmas storm


mahk_webstah

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There was way more qpf than that. Some of the ASOS qpfs are not correct for that storm since everything froze up.

 

Figured, I had my handsfull with other stuff those 2 days, It was +RN and 23F all you could here was trees and power poles snapping and the sky was lit up in blue with all the transformers exploding

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There was way more qpf than that. Some of the ASOS qpfs are not correct for that storm since everything froze up.

 

In Gardiner, 9 miles S of AUG, I recorded 2.33" for Jan 7-9, 1998 at temps 25-30.  90% came on 8-9 and 1.4" on the 8th.  At times that Thursday the rain was so heavy that accretion was probably only half the precip, but we still had 1.5" ice.  Biggest ice I saw was on Greenwood Hill in Hebron, about 10 miles NW of Jeff, a 0.2" ash twig with ice that measured 2.25" by 3", or nearly 3 lb per linear foot.

 

So for Sunday, nice snowpack, antecedent cold, abundant qpf, mild h85s, foothills CAD, what's not to like?   Blecchhh!!

 

In 1998 I was very fortunate to regain power in 4 days.  Where I live now, on a dead-end 3-family road thru the woods, another '98 and 3 weeks would be more likely.  Glad the woodpile is big.

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Didn't the GFS do a pretty abrupt shift now with a low driving way northwest of Montreal?, more phased I guess.

 

The GGEM, on the other hand, takes a low over me and never warm sectors the ice zones. The old Euro also took a more wavey weak low across ENY...not La Tuque.

 

 

Early on, You can already see the 12z euro is colder up here then 0z @ 18z friday

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 Why it could be touch-an'-go :

 

Notice how quickly the temp recesses @BTV when the boundary settles on the NAM

54000928466 08606 102014 48040501 54012989773 10312 092208 41019999

60000958453 03707 142508 46050101 60003978056 00415 163509 37969595

 

This is not intended as a deterministic forecast; it is intended to demo how the atmosphere on the polar side of the boundary heading into the weekend so [probably] quite chilly, and it would not be anything like a location having to wait 12 hours of oozing before seeing their temperatures decline.

 

Looking at a different model source, the 102-hour "Crapnadian" GGEM ( I really do hate this model with a passion, but I am using it again just to exemplify..) notice the top right panel:

f102.gif

 

You can clearly see a fairly potent damming signature nosing down from Maine.  And the boundary is hung up in Massachusets ... probably somewhere between the Pike and Route 2.  This is happening despite the very mild therms at 850mb (showing that the gradient in the thermal fields will be as intense in the vertical as it is in the horizontal in this model's depictions.   Pushing this chart on to 114 ...120+ hours, the boundary almost fails to really get N of Mass at the surface.  

 

Notwithstanding climo arguments, either...  I still don't think a "warm" weekend is in the bag here.  Euro's coming out, we'll see.... I did see the GFS and it was pretty ugly with more amp Lakes cutter.  But it also is robust with the polar high N. 

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