weatherbo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 CIPS seems to like that Dec 31, 1984 - Jan 1, 1985 analog. For fun, here's a few locations and their snow totals and total precipitation for that storm: APN: 12.2" (0.70") DSM: 3.3" (0.32") GRB: 4.5" (0.40") GRR: 7.6" (1.06") LAN: 0.7" (1.21") MCI: 7.1" (0.87") MDW: 2.7" (2.01") MKE: 10.9" (1.73") MKG: 10.3" (1.08") MLI: 8.8" (0.97") MSN: 8.1" (0.95") ORD: 7.5" (1.38") PIA: 0.4" (1.17") RFD: 9.8" (0.88") Alpena's hefty total came no doubt in part to Huron enhancement. I have to think nw lower's totals were meager at best with that analog. Would love to see a chi to Lansing track but really feel models have latched on the track at this point, minus the wiggles each side. So not expecting a real event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That '84/'85 storm left a nice little piece in the desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Alpena's hefty total came no doubt in part to Huron enhancement. I have to think nw lower's totals were meager at best with that analog. Would love to see a chi to Lansing track but really feel models have latched on the track at this point, minus the wiggles each side. So not expecting a real event here. Here's the snowfall map from CIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 CIPS seems to like that Dec 31, 1984 - Jan 1, 1985 analog. For fun, here's a few locations and their snow totals and total precipitation for that storm: APN: 12.2" (0.70") DSM: 3.3" (0.32") GRB: 4.5" (0.40") GRR: 7.6" (1.06") LAN: 0.7" (1.21") MCI: 7.1" (0.87") MDW: 2.7" (2.01") MKE: 10.9" (1.73") MKG: 10.3" (1.08") MLI: 8.8" (0.97") MSN: 8.1" (0.95") ORD: 7.5" (1.38") PIA: 0.4" (1.17") RFD: 9.8" (0.88") According to Storm Data, there was a report of 19" at Antioch trending down to the 2.7" at Midway. Talk about huge gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Here's the snowfall map from CIPS 19850101_072_total.png Wow, a nice swath! Thanks for posting that.... Keeps my hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 BTW, Geos slant sticking in that storm?!? Just kidding Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 BTW, Geos slant sticking in that storm?!? Just kidding Geos. Haha. I was 2 years old then! Don't remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On that track we're gonna have to take a run on the sleds to Mt. Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On that track we're gonna have to take a run on the sleds to Mt. Geos. Woodstock did pretty well that analog is probably right about one thing a 0-12"+ gradient across LOT's cwa is very believable. Doesn't look like any groundbreaking shifts early on with the 12z NAM...minor baroclinic wobbles. EDITED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 0z 30km FIM_jet takes it over Indy at 998. As if we needed to know what the obscure models are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 For that 84-85 storm, the AO was -1.239 and the NAO was -0.277, which is way different than what we'll have this time but goes to show how similar storms can occur with much different indices. Also was a solid La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 0z 30km FIM_jet takes it over Indy at 998. As if we needed to know what the obscure models are saying. Thanks, EdLizard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Woodstock did pretty well that analog is probably right about one thing a 0-12"+ gradient across LOT's cwa is very believable. Doesn't look like any groundbreaking shifts early on with the 12z Euro...minor baroclinic wobbles. Nostradamus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 how we looking this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Woodstock did pretty well that analog is probably right about one thing a 0-12"+ gradient across LOT's cwa is very believable. Doesn't look like any groundbreaking shifts early on with the 12z Euro...minor baroclinic wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z NAM a bit farther southwest with the closed low at 63 hours compared to the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hoosier posting in the morning. This must be a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Continuing to get worried about ice ramifications here in Michiana border region with Christmas Sunday and Christmas eve services, travel, and last minute shopping for many people. Don't want to lose trees and power and don't like being in the zone of possible sig ice accretion. Euro is so consistent on qpf totals it is just scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z NAM a bit farther southwest with the closed low at 63 hours compared to the 06z run. baroclinic zone also sagged a bit south over the lakes, safely below 0 at ORD and no longer a torch at DTW...not sure if legit or just NAM wobbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Snow chances for this weekend in SE WI are already up to 70%. 12km NAM temperatures before most of the precip hits the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 atmospheric river...should be fully into weenie vision range by 0z this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Can really see the warm air aloft bullying north on the 12z NAM between 72-84 hours as evidenced by rapid thickness rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 still some major timing issues with the GFS on the fast side NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 atmospheric river...should be fully into weenie vision range by 0z this evening oh yeah....there should be some good ones over the next 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 baroclinic zone also sagged a bit south over the lakes, safely below 0 at ORD and no longer a torch at DTW...not sure if legit or just NAM wobbles Southern trends are good... 2" + of rain would be like coal in your stocking !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Latest GFS seems to move the colder air in quicker, by 12z. By 18z, surface temps look to be around 30 or so. by 0z, they look to be in the upper 20's , at least according to forecast soundings. Nice to see somewhat colder runs for ORD/MDW. Not much colder, but they seem to appear that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Good luck to anyone trying to come up with an ice forecast for this thing. In general probably can't assume everything that falls will accrete given marginal temps and heavier precip rates, but the big question is how much to deduct for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Good luck to anyone trying to come up with an ice forecast for this thing. In general probably can't assume everything that falls will accrete given marginal temps and heavier precip rates, but the big question is how much to deduct for that. .01" ZR IMBY final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 .01" ZR IMBY final call Probably a good call for the lakefront paradise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Probably a good call for the lakefront paradise. I'm currently thinking something like 1.2 total qpf, with .01" ZR, .40" RN, .20" IP, and .59" SN (8:1) not take it to the bank confident but a nice starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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