December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 2

[KeenerWx]

Thanks for posting this.

 

 

Thanks Keener!

 

Definitely colder at the sfc in comparison to 12z. 850 is a touch warm but workable. It's warm tongues at other levels that I'd be worried about.

 

No problem! Hope you guys get pummeled with snow. 

[tim123]

Hello. New to forum. I realize I am in ny but could someone tell me what euro output for kroc rochester ny is. Concerned about big ice potential.Thanks

[KeenerWx]

Hello. New to forum. I realize I am in ny but could someone tell me what euro output for kroc rochester ny is. Concerned about big ice potential.Thanks

 

Here you are...

 

SUN 06Z 22-DEC 1.3 3.1 1011 98 100 0.24 561 552

SUN 12Z 22-DEC 0.7 5.7 1005 98 99 0.62 560 556

SUN 18Z 22-DEC 0.5 7.5 1002 96 95 0.32 557 555

MON 00Z 23-DEC -1.8 5.9 1005 95 59 0.28 554 550

MON 06Z 23-DEC -3.3 -0.3 1007 94 70 0.04 548 543

MON 12Z 23-DEC -5.9 -10.4 1016 88 84 0.05 542 530

MON 18Z 23-DEC -5.9 -13.0 1021 71 26 0.02 536 520 

[tim123]

Thanks. If I read.this.correct not.a huge icing event maybe half inch

[Chargers09]

A half inch is a pretty significant icing event still. 

[tim123]

Man.thats razor thin. What is .05 temp. Like 32.5 degrees.lol

[Central Illinois]

What's the ice potential look like for MO and IL on that run of the EURO?

[KeenerWx]

Man.thats razor thin. What is .05 temp. Like 32.5 degrees.lol

 

Almost 33 degrees (32.9). 

[tim123]

Got a feeling from rochester north and west is goin to get a bad ice event

[KeenerWx]

What's the ice potential look like for MO and IL on that run of the EURO?

 

Somewhere along the Quincy, IL/Peoria, IL corridor looks to pick up a decent amount of ice per the text data. 

[Harry]

EURO Ensembles now getting more on board with the insane QPF. Still not up to the level of the OP run but getting there. 12z ensemble mean had the 2+ line from LAF to just south of Toledo and the 1.75 line just sneaking up to near Josh.. 00z ensemble mean now has the 2+ line from Kankakee/Valpo just to my se running over into Detroit.. A little was lost on the outer edges especially nw side. Also have a new widespread area of 2.5+ covering se MO, S.IL up into Central IN almost to LAF. 12z run had just a small spot of 2.5 around Paducah.. Chicago went from the 1.00 1.5 range to 1.25 by IL/WI line to 1.75 on the south side.. inch+ sneaks up to geos hood and .75+ up to MKE which is the same as the 12z mean.. inch+ line sits at the IL/IA line for the Quad Cities area which is also the same as the 12z..

 

Oh and the mean is a slight bit south as well with track and a shade colder vs 12z mean.. Lost a few more ensemble members that were going over top of/nw of here. Nearly all of them are now on the same track to near/just south of Cleveland.

 

DO NOTE.. Some of that includes the system on Thurs/Fri from both runs..

[The_Global_Warmer]

I think the models for the most part are making a mistake with the surface winds around day 4.

 

I think the nam and gfs are way overdoing the surface feature in Kansas.  While the Southern SLP should take over faster and be more dominant.  We will see.

 

[Stebo]

I think the models for the most part are making a mistake with the surface winds around day 4.

 

I think the nam and gfs are way overdoing the surface feature in Kansas.  While the Southern SLP should take over faster and be more dominant.  We will see.

 

You are reading way too much into an 84hr NAM map.

[Harry]

06z GFS nudged south a bit/colder..

[A-L-E-K]

Last 5 runs of the Euro, starting from 5 runs ago to tonights, look at the hours at the top. Couldn't get the animated gif to work on this post but click the link and you'll see the loop.

 

http://i.picasion.com/pic76/f2ac0d7a409ef091d105c3bc9509f6e1.gif

 

nice, the consistency on the Euro and its ensembles is becoming rather noteworthy...setting the stage for one of the better med/long range model calls in a long time (or an epic flop). And although drier, the GFS snow path is in a similar location. I'd like a few adjustments south to give some breathing room for the inevitable zero hour shift north but we're in a pretty good spot.

 

Trend arrow pointing ^

 

Way too early final call™ coming Thursday 12z.

 

EDIT: friendly reminder for people to clean their PM inboxes.

[Chicago WX]

00z Euro is kinda interesting around here in a bizarre, depressing way.  ~3.5" of rain with temps in the mid 30s is something I haven't seen before.

 

 

Interesting.  The Wunderground maps show much more precip in here by 18z Sat but maybe that's like a 24 hour total or something.

 

Anyway, that's a keeper.  I dare anyone to beat that in terms of misery. 

 

This one is shaping up to be an all-timer for LAF. 

 

Nice to see the Euro remain consistent for N IL, and everyone else on the wintry side. That has to count for something, at this time frame anyways.

[A-L-E-K]

sounds like HPC continues to favor the euro and a quicker northern stream solution.

[blue60007]

This one is shaping up to be an all-timer for LAF. 

 

Nice to see the Euro remain consistent for N IL, and everyone else on the wintry side. That has to count for something, at this time frame anyways.

I'll get my row boat ready. Seriously, though, 3.5" of rain is impressive at any time much less in the low 30s. FWIW, last couple of GFS runs have trended us a few degrees cooler. 6z has us hovering at 34 steady for the whole time.

[Chicago WX]

I'll get my row boat ready. Seriously, though, 3.5" of rain is impressive at any time much less in the low 30s. FWIW, last couple of GFS runs have trended us a few degrees cooler. 6z has us hovering at 34 steady for the whole time.

 

No doubt, the rainfall total is very impressive. 

 

I guess at this point...we shoot for the coldest, non-freezing 3"+ ever.  

[Gilbertfly]

FWIW ... for 00Z GFS run @ H96.. #1 analog is again January 1st, 1985 (which featured a GEOS special and a host of -ZR across southern MI)

[Chicago Storm]

EDIT: friendly reminder for people to clean their PM inboxes.

This is a good reminder.

[IWXwx]

Interesting.  The Wunderground maps show much more precip in here by 18z Sat but maybe that's like a 24 hour total or something.

 

Anyway, that's a keeper.  I dare anyone to beat that in terms of misery. 

 

 

I'll get my row boat ready. Seriously, though, 3.5" of rain is impressive at any time much less in the low 30s. FWIW, last couple of GFS runs have trended us a few degrees cooler. 6z has us hovering at 34 steady for the whole time.

 

 

No doubt, the rainfall total is very impressive. 

 

I guess at this point...we shoot for the coldest, non-freezing 3"+ ever.

 

Looks like I will be in the same 'boat' as the LAF crew.

 

I'm just glad surface temps are not predicted to be a couple of degrees lower. I like electricity.

[hm8]

Dtx

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL. THE

VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RELEASE AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS

EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONCE AGAIN THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL

PRODUCE AN INCREASED LACK OF CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP TYPE OVER THE

AREA. MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER...0 TO

+2C...FROM ABOUT 750-900MB AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRAWS MILD AIR FROM

THE WARM SECTOR UP INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT WILL HIGHLIGHT A

POTENTIAL MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS THE WARM LAYER IS NOT THAT MUCH ABOVE

0C AND A SIMPLE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH COULD CHANGE THIS

EASILY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM WARM LAYER IS MUCH

WARMER...ALMOST TO 7C...LEADING TO MUCH MORE LIQUID PRECIP FALLING

BUT THIS IS AT THE END OF THE RUN SO WILL JUST MAKE NOTE OF IT AT

THIS POINT. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF QPF AS THIS

SYSTEM ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS LOADED WITH GULF

MOISTURE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH THE GFS IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISING OVER A

HALF INCH OF QPF WHICH MAKE THE PTYPE THAT MUCH MORE IMPORTANT. THE

SYSTEM IS STRONG...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STRONG 850-700

FGEN...WITH A VERY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SE MI TO GET A GOOD SWATH OF

ACCUMULATING SNOW. MORE DETAILS AND REFINEMENTS TO COME.

[A-L-E-K]

Not really seeing any afds make a case for siding one way or another...not that they're supposed to at this range.

[kevlon62]

A nit picky item, but my p&c no longer has the "wintry mix" mentioned for Saturday night. Liking it.

[Chicago WX]

CIPS seems to like that Dec 31, 1984 - Jan 1, 1985 analog.

 

For fun, here's a few locations and their snow totals and total precipitation for that storm:

 

APN: 12.2" (0.70")

DSM: 3.3" (0.32")

GRB: 4.5" (0.40")

GRR: 7.6" (1.06")

LAN: 0.7" (1.21")

MCI: 7.1" (0.87")

MDW: 2.7" (2.01")

MKE: 10.9" (1.73")

MKG: 10.3" (1.08")

MLI: 8.8" (0.97")

MSN: 8.1" (0.95")

ORD: 7.5" (1.38")

PIA: 0.4" (1.17")

RFD: 9.8" (0.88")

[A-L-E-K]

CIPS seems to like that Dec 31, 1984 - Jan 1, 1985 analog.

 

For fun, here's a few locations and their snow totals and total precipitation for that storm:

 

APN: 12.2" (0.70")

DSM: 3.3" (0.32")

GRB: 4.5" (0.40")

GRR: 7.6" (1.06")

LAN: 0.7" (1.21")

MCI: 7.1" (0.87")

MDW: 2.7" (2.01")

MKE: 10.9" (1.73")

MKG: 10.3" (1.08")

MLI: 8.8" (0.97")

MSN: 8.1" (0.95")

ORD: 7.5" (1.38")

PIA: 0.4" (1.17")

RFD: 9.8" (0.88")

 

 

cement city

[kevlon62]

Johnny Dee is updated already. He is all on board the Euro heavy snow track but cuts amounts down to a 2-5" range due to uncertainty on early rain/snow line location/potential mixing. Nice lil' read either way. And I'll take the over .

[MadTown]

7.5" out of 1.38" of precip....the definition of concrete....would gladly take that analog for mby

[Chicago WX]

One more thing about the Dec 31, 1984 - Jan 1, 1985 storm, while everyone waits for the 12z suite.

 

Looks like the track went overtop LAF. Fairly common track.

 

Jan 1, 1985 maps in 6 hour increments: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us0101.php