Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I normally don't like IMBY type of forecasting but if I was from around Madison through the Quad Cities back to around Kansas City/St. Joseph MO and then back into South Central Kansas I would really like my position right now for a potential of significant snowfall... obviously this zone can move back to the W or S and E by the time we get a settled solution. I'm wondering if there may be a more sharper rain/snow line too.... way to far out to get that cute but I wouldn't be totally shocked. I can certainly see this playing out with some significant ice in Southern Michigan, esp. SC and SW lower Michigan into NW/NRN IN over thru Chicagoland to the SE tip of Iowa. Surface temps being marginal to my East just lead me to think the rain snow line may be fairly narrow... I hope I'm explaining this so everyone understands what I'm saying. So, what are you trying to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So, what are you trying to say? That he's liking areas from Madison to the QC down to KC and south-central Kansas for significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So, what are you trying to say? LOL Some places may only see a brief window of freezing rain before warming enough to go over to rain, other areas back further to the W may only have a brief window of freezing rain before flipping over to snow. In between WAA should overcome cold surface temps and keep the icy zone moving steadily N before stalling out somewhere over Northern Illinois/NW Indiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 LOL Some places may only see a brief window of freezing rain before warming enough to go over to rain, other areas back further to the W may only have a brief window of freezing rain before flipping over to snow. In between WAA should overcome cold surface temps and keep the icy zone moving steadily N before stalling out somewhere over Northern Illinois/NW Indiana... LOL, I'm just joking HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'll just bite tongue and just say i have a feeling a meltdown is incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That he's liking areas from Madison to the QC down to KC and south-central Kansas for significant snowfall. Something generally between the GGEM and Euro to be sure...I think that is a good compromise right now. The GFS run to me in general looks like garbage. If we were inside about 72hrs I'd give the NAM a little more credence but not yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I have a feeling that Euro will come back tonight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'll just bite tongue and just say i have a feeling a meltdown is incoming. While The Grinch quietly recites his evil laugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Something generally between the GGEM and Euro to be sure...I think that is a good compromise right now. The GFS run to me in general looks like garbage. If we were inside about 72hrs I'd give the NAM a little more credence but not yet... Cool. Could be some sharp gradients in snowfall amounts from west to east somewhere close to the area. At this point I think I'd feel a little safer for snowfall over on your side of the river lol. Gonna be a fun one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Latest GGEM ZR output continuing to show a large area in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow. That would cripple Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I have a feeling that Euro will come back tonight..... This probably upped your odds as first meltdown. I don't think it comes south significantly, perhaps 30 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow. That would cripple Toronto. Yeah, that'd be interesting to watch from afar but I'm not sure I like the idea of waking up Christmas morning without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wanted to bring this post over from the old thread so I could reply...posted by extremewx52 I'm sure you're correct in general but don't other factors besides rates come into play as well? i.e. how cold it's been prior to the storm, max temp in the warm layer aloft, sfc dewpoints, etc? Of course they are all factors that need to be looked at, but with heavy precip, 1.0 inches of liquid precip might only have 0.25 to 0.5 inches of ice accretion just because there is not enough time for the first drop to freeze before more are falling into the same area is I think why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Latest GGEM ZR output continuing to show a large area in play ZR_000-120_0000.gif Wow that would be rough. I do enjoy a good ice storm, very cool meteorological phenomenon, but this would obviously cut power for days. GEM has been consistent on the ice threat for quite a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 NO ICE, Especially with the holidays upon us......Christmas in the dark? NO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yeah, that'd be interesting to watch from afar but I'm not sure I like the idea of waking up Christmas morning without power. 401 corridor with that much ZR accumulation would be a disaster (it's approaching some of the totals the Ottawa/St. Lawrence Valley saw in 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Euro rolling. Out to hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Better look at ON ice accums off the GEM. Not pretty if verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Maybe the slightest shift back south. High is a tad stronger at 72hr near the Sioux Land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I dont see any significant changes on the latest Euro through about 66 hours. Looks similar to the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Maybe the slightest shift back south. High is a tad stronger at 72hr near the Sioux Land. Thermals similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Sfc low still down in the Pecos Valley region of TX at 84hr. QPF explosion in eastern OK into AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This might be a big run. Sfc low between SJT and ABI at 90hr (997mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The explosion of precip between 78 and 90hrs is extremely impressive. All liquid still at this point, but still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This might be a big run. Sfc low between SJT and ABI at 90hr (997mb) Its loaded with moisture. The temperatures look slightly cooler to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 00z Euro looks a bit farther south or colder to me at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 By 102 double low structure appears. 995 in southern MO, but a new low west of Dallas. Craploads of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I do like the location of that vortex over northern Quebec at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 HOLY moisture EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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