hm8 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS is disappointing in terms of raw QPF output I guess for some but the rack is an improvement and that's probably whats most important right now. QPF accuracy is something I look at more closely with high res models that can pick up on the mesoscale stuff...further out its probably better to look at larger scale stuff, such as the moisture propagation vectors from the gulf that have been modeled to be massive from the get-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Guess i should start building my ark. I actually started mine 2 days ago.... just have to add the finishing touches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 first look from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 pretty easy to imagine how the QPF could be underdone. As long as we see the cold solutions pickup some support, i'm happy. This.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That map depicts my concerns for ice here in Michiana and illustrates what I was thinking while perusing tonight's GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It looks maybe just a little north of what it had on the 12z run but not much. Makes sense. Still a massive ice storm imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That map depicts my concerns for ice here in Michiana and illustrates what I was thinking while perusing tonight's GFS run. It's only for a glazing (0.01") and the higher tier maps are less impressive but it gives you a good idea on their thoughts about track/p type probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's only for a glazing (0.01") and the higher tier maps are less impressive but it gives you a good idea on their thoughts about track/p type probs And it's only through 00z Saturday, well before the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 An ice storm on the Winter Solstace? Hmm....I never really want ice...but MAYYYBE the snowcover fan inside of me says it wouldnt be disaster. Ice over the snowpack and it leaves a solid icy base as we get deeper into winter. Old icy snow itself is not pretty, but it makes for a great base to build upon, and the grass can say byebye til March Seriously though...havent had a true ice storm in my neck of the woods since 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's only for a glazing (0.01") and the higher tier maps are less impressive but it gives you a good idea on their thoughts about track/p type probs Wonder where they are getting this? That's through 0z saturday... I haven't seen any guidance showing freezing rain that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 And it's only through 00z Saturday, well before the main event. Yessir. Actually seems kinda weirdly early now that I think about it....huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The map gives an indication of track per the baroclinic zone set up for the weekend even though this is just seen through Friday evening. With WAA and moisture progged to be what is forecast and low level shallow cold air I am becoming increasingly concerned and in line with what Stebo has been fearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm probably 25 miles from 8-12 inches.... But, as of this moment the GFS has me in the ice storm territory. 1.25+ inches of mystery precipitation... Just scoot this 25-50 miles south.. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Pretty sure that ice accural map is for the 19-20th system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 An ice storm on the Winter Solstace? Hmm....I never really want ice...but MAYYYBE the snowcover fan inside of me says it wouldnt be disaster. Ice over the snowpack and it leaves a solid icy base as we get deeper into winter. Old icy snow itself is not pretty, but it makes for a great base to build upon, and the grass can say byebye til March Seriously though...havent had a true ice storm in my neck of the woods since 2002. I'm in for that. Plus it may mean more snow north. For the first time in awhile, I'll be spending a significant amount of time up north (Boyne Falls and the West Branch area) post Xmas and New Year's. If the ice keeps my white Christmas down state and keeps building my snow pack up North, I am in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hard to see exact snow amounts on the 0z GEM but it looks like some of the QPF amounts in the cold sector rival that of GHD. Parts of MO look like they get slammed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hard to see exact snow amounts on the 0z GEM but it looks like some of the QPF amounts in the cold sector rival that of GHD. Parts of MO look like they get slammed on this run. A lot of that is FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Pretty sure that ice accural map is for the 19-20th system. Damn you're probably right. Didn't realize there was any icing potential for that one but the time frame makes more sense. Whoopzies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 A lot of that is FZRA. Yeah, the low goes through LAF and even here it is probably half freezing rain/sleet and half snow. Not very good for a normally ideal low track. Shallow cold air is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 00z GEM precip algo FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hard to see exact snow amounts on the 0z GEM but it looks like some of the QPF amounts in the cold sector rival that of GHD. Parts of MO look like they get slammed on this run. There's a ton of mixed precip there per the precip type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Interestingly, 00z GGEM brings in a decent round of ZR here before it flips to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Model mayhem...the agony and the ecstasy. Right now more the agony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Man just when it looked like models were lining up somewhat they go haywire again. the positioning of that high in the northern plains is goin to be crucial. models today seem to have backed off on its intensity and how far south it was. so that's allowing the sfc system and front to remain more north. I remember we saw the same issue with the GHD storm. not sayin this storm is like that but I do remember the low track wobbling a lot north and south with the strong high pressure system affecting that. ended up goin back south a few days before the storm. sampling will be crucial. I think models are struggling still with the snow pack and therefore surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Man just when it looked like models were lining up somewhat they go haywire again. the positioning of that high in the northern plains is goin to be crucial. models today seem to have backed off on its intensity and how far south it was. so that's allowing the sfc system and front to remain more north. I remember we saw the same issue with the GHD storm. not sayin this storm is like that but I do remember the low track wobbling a lot north and south with the strong high pressure system affecting that. ended up goin back south a few days before the storm. sampling will be crucial. I think models are struggling still with the snow pack and therefore surface temps. GHD made very gradual NW shifts the last three to four days, so I don't remember it every making a marked shift south within a few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GHD made very gradual NW shifts the last three to four days, so I don't remember it every making a marked shift south within a few days? I could have swore there were a few runs where there were huge deviations north and south before it settled back to its original track that euro eventually showed. anywho I digress. this system is nothing like that one. complete different setup. basically its a waiting game. for my sake I hope it can go south again b/c it is starting to look like mostly rain, esp on GEM, here which would really suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 00z UKMET is probably in the west camp since it has the surface low in south central Missouri at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I normally don't like IMBY type of forecasting but if I was from around Madison through the Quad Cities back to around Kansas City/St. Joseph MO and then back into South Central Kansas I would really like my position right now for a potential of significant snowfall... obviously this zone can move back to the W or S and E by the time we get a settled solution. I'm wondering if there may be a more sharper rain/snow line too.... way to far out to get that cute but I wouldn't be totally shocked. I can certainly see this playing out with some significant ice in Southern Michigan, esp. SC and SW lower Michigan into NW/NRN IN over thru Chicagoland to the SE tip of Iowa. Surface temps being marginal to my East just lead me to think the rain snow line may be fairly narrow... I hope I'm explaining this so everyone understands what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 WxBell GEM snowfall maps show a 6"+ swath from Ottumwa, through Cedar Rapids, to Dubuque, Madison, Sheboygan, through about the northern 2/5 of lower MI including the Weatherbo area. Amounts greater than 10" from Lake Michigan points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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