Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The thing is the surface isn't cold, it's right around freezing after a couple days above...it's a marginal ice setup at best. Especially when the mid level warm layer is going to be hella robust. Think you're downplaying the ice threat a bit too much generally speaking. Mid levels do torch in some areas but you still gotta respect the E/NE low level flow that will be locked in. I think it will be significant...exactly where and exactly how significant are questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Current plan is to leave at 5:00 pm or so on Saturday - scheduled to work tomorrow night... need time to get some ZZZZZs before hitting the road.... Just saw some maps showing ice in the northern suburbs of DTW... which makes me nervous... It's definitely something to watch. Lots of model changes between now and then. Friday night / Saturday morning there should be a better handle on this area. Right now it just keep flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It's definitely something to watch. Lots of model changes between now and then. Friday night / Saturday morning there should be a better handle on this area. Right now it just keep flopping. North of 59 is in for heck of an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Pretty much unanimous model agreement on a wide area experiencing freezing rain as thermal profiles adjust across the region. Amounts are the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 North of 59 is in for heck of an ice storm And that is what makes me nervous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Think you're downplaying the ice threat a bit too much generally speaking. Mid levels do torch in some areas but you still gotta respect the E/NE low level flow that will be locked in. I think it will be significant...exactly where and exactly how significant are questions. maybe and this thing keeps morphing so it's hard to confifent but I just don't see the low level flow being strong enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The models still want to ruin Xmas with a devastating ice storm for Toronto :-( Can't wait for my candlelit Xmas dinner with non perishables on the menu.... I mean no offence, but you seem to be freaking out more than the rest of us Toronto posters about the possibility of ice. Relax, and enjoy the storm. Statistically, the chances of Toronto getting anything like January 1998 in Montreal are slim. We just don't have the topography to support prolonged ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I mean no offence, but you seem to be freaking out more than the rest of us Toronto posters about the possibility of ice. Relax, and enjoy the storm. Statistically, the chances of Toronto getting anything like January 1998 in Montreal are slim. We just don't have the topography to support prolonged ice. Models seem to be hinting at this regardless of Topography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 And that is what makes me nervous... Me too. I really DON'T want to stay at my in laws for the holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Models seem to be hinting at this regardless of Topography. Regions away from the Lake (401 and north) have a better chance at getting some severe freezing rain than areas near the Lake. That's where topography plays a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Me too. I really DON'T want to stay at my in laws for the holidays! Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Regions away from the Lake (401 and north) have a better chance at getting some severe freezing rain than areas near the Lake. That's where topography plays a role. I don't really think that matters to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Regions away from the Lake (401 and north) have a better chance at getting some severe freezing rain than areas near the Lake. That's where topography plays a role. Not going to lie... I think a good majority of locals along I-94 are shaping up for an ice storm, at this day in time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 E/ENE flow, current snow pack and if temps end up being 27-30... Ice ice babyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Cold air intrusion is not being handled well IMO...sure snowpacks will take a hit in our backyards over the next 24 hours....but this isn't the case upstream on the path from where the CAA is coming and this doesn't even include the fresh powder that will be laid down "upstream" over the next 36 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 And that is what makes me nervous... Me too. I really DON'T want to stay at my in laws for the holidays! That is funny. Hell, I don't care either way once I am there. I am visiting a friend - we'll just open a bottle of scotch... It's just getting there that has me concerned. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Well it sure seems like perhaps that energy on the West coast finally getting a good sampling is starting to allow things to fall into place in terms of track, strength, moisture, etc.... All the 12Z models are painting a similar picturel...now we'll have to see what the Euro does here...to me that will be critical...does it play ball with these other models and shift to what seems to be the consensus starting to develop again? Or does it remain a lone gun further W? We'll see. I still suspect most of the NWS offices will want to see at least one more consistent model suite at 0Z tonight before hoisting any sort of watches...they could probably even get away with not putting anything out until Friday morning but I think the time is drawing closer. I guess in IL i'd be hoisting something generally NW of a line from about Kankakee to Quincy, probably a lot of lower Michigan if not all of it due to the potential of icing/heavy snow, probably SE of a line from roughly Prairie Du Chien to just South of Green Bay, in Iowa I think I'd be highlighting areas SE of a line from about Council Bluffs-Des Moines-Decorah. We have the SE correction so lets see if it holds at this point, watch the trends on temps at surface and aloft, and trends on cold sector precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I will be watching to see what the models do at 0z today...by then the speed max and low on the West coast should have decent sampling, but the Northern stream portion is still going to go largely unsampled...that is still going to wreak some havoc probably until Friday evening I'd guess. STL saying not until Saturday morning is certainly plausible too. Basically the snow threat is gone from Lansing-Chicago-Quincy-Tulsa OK and points to the East except for a bit of backend light stuff. However if the models guesses are wrong compared to what actually gets sampled this thing could shift 100 miles East or West still. I still expect some wild swings on this in the next 24 hours. These SW systems, which most of our big Winter storms are, are very fickle and usually hold some surprises. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 9z SREF plumes showing a mean of just over 2" at ORD (cluster from 2-3", another from 0-1/2", and a few 4-6" outliers), we'll see if we can start narrowing in going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 ZR_000-084_0000.gif GGEM backed off slightly again on YYZ ice accums (now in the 20-25mm range). Two runs in a row now, but overall still consistent with its placement of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 baja zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GGEM backed off slightly again on YYZ ice accums (now in the 20-25mm range). Two runs in a row now, but overall still consistent with its placement of ZR. This could be our saving grace with more ice pellets on this run (5-10 mm range). Let's hope this trend continues. And if I were a betting man, models will trend colder with the thermals (more IP or even some SN and less ZR) once the northern piece of energy is sampled fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Risk is definitely there for heavy wet low end warning snows for mkx, arx, dvn, grb, maybe even part of lot's territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 SE Michigan will have extreme flooding.... Jackpot for snow is going to be Cadillac, MI with 16 inches of snow. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 SE Michigan will have extreme flooding.... Jackpot for snow is going to be Cadillac, MI with 16 inches of snow. Sent from my HTC6435LVW high bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Not liking the overall trend for the South Western MI. The low is maybe a little south, but the GRR area looks to be out of luck this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Not liking the overall trend for the South Western MI. The low is maybe a little south, but the GRR area looks to be out of luck this time. you're still in the game...not great odds but not an all is lost situation like DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 you're still in the game...not great odds but not an all is lost situation like DTW We still have a glimmer of hope, but Vegas would pay handsomely if we scored big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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