A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 We're like a magnet with these types of storms. It's uncanny. Probably why our snow climo sucks. This run may give Alek some snow, so we'll probably need to toss it. haha, I'm on board for .8" of snow on my final call so This would be much more interesting if we can get that 850 low 100 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Pretty radical departure temp wise for YYZ. GFS doesn't appear to get Toronto above freezing on Sunday now. The good news (in terms of avoiding major icing damage) is that this more southerly track has shunted the main QPF axis just to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 To my naked eyes, it looks like Toronto will have trouble reaching the freezing mark on Sunday if the latest 12z GFS is correct. Not a good sign, especially with all of the freezing rain that falls overnight Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Port Huron, MI and then Lexington, MI... Other issue is timing - will likely be driving north of Toledo around 0200 or 0300 Sunday morning... The key thing is marginal temps. Freezing Rain at 31-32F does not accumulate much on treated roads. It will make the tree nice an pretty but roads should be OK. Right now you should be OK. Your trip to Port Huron (I75 to I94) should be OK. The back roads from Port Huron to Lexington is when it could be more tricky IF we trend colder. When do you leave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Pretty radical departure temp wise for YYZ. GFS doesn't appear to get Toronto above freezing on Sunday now. The good news (in terms of avoiding major icing damage) is that this more southerly track has shunted the main QPF axis just to our SE. True, interesting shift. Could also imply that the period of RA that previous runs had occuring post-ZR may now be all ZR changing to snow on the backside. Hard to say if this is better or worse for us, lower QPF yet prolonged ZR period and no melt in the hours after. Impacts probably similar for both solutions? Forecast keeps getting trickier haha and I don't have BUFKIT at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 To my naked eyes, it looks like Toronto will have trouble reaching the freezing mark on Sunday if the latest 12z GFS is correct. Not a good sign, especially with all of the freezing rain that falls overnight Saturday. At least it'll ensure we have a white Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Like I said a day or two ago this one is gonna be a b**ch right to the end. 12z runs so far do little to add any confidence to any solution. Last night's Euro had northern IL getting dry slotted pretty badly, and then you see the possibilities with a 12z GFS scenario. It would be perhaps a little easier if we were dealing with a more widespread snow swath. The fact that this is looking like a relatively narrow area of snowfall makes it all the more difficult lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 To my naked eyes, it looks like Toronto will have trouble reaching the freezing mark on Sunday if the latest 12z GFS is correct. Not a good sign, especially with all of the freezing rain that falls overnight Saturday. Close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 True, interesting shift. Could also imply that the period of RA that previous runs had occuring post-ZR may now be all ZR changing to snow on the backside. Hard to say if this is better or worse for us, lower QPF yet prolonged ZR period and no melt in the hours after. Impacts probably similar for both solutions? Forecast keeps getting trickier haha and I don't have BUFKIT at work. Scary thing would be to have the thermals verify but the QPF axis depicted being a tad too far SE. Then again, maybe the NAM is on to something and this whole discussion will be moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Ice for the northern burbs of Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GEM out to 48. H5 setup looks more like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Wow is the GEM south. 1002 over the TN/AR/MS border at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 all i'm hoping for is at least 6" of a wetter snow to help pack down the deep lake snow although it is getting fairly packed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Wow is the GEM south. 1002 over the TN/AR/MS border at 60. Interesting, what does it show for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Wow is the GEM south. 1002 over the TN/AR/MS border at 60. Almost to PIT at 72 hours. Snow wise, doesn't that much different than the 12z GFS. Orientation a little different, but solid for the QC, MSN, MKE, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Interesting, what does it show for us? GFS like solution. Less QPF but it looks a lot colder. We're probably not far off from starting as SN on Saturday verbatim (maybe a bit too far south). And it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the brunt of the storm fell as PL rather than ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GGEM very much in the GFS camp. Races the storm along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Wow is the GEM south. 1002 over the TN/AR/MS border at 60. The GEM has bounced around so bad...terrible performance (not that any model has done well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS like solution. Less QPF but it looks a lot colder. We're probably not far off from starting as SN on Saturday verbatim (maybe a bit too far south). And it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the brunt of the storm fell as PL rather than ZR. Was just thinking that and could be our saving grace depending on the degree of cold that actually verifies in the end (a slight NW correction could change that). Thinking this one is going to be nailbiter, going to be tough to base my travel plans off this. Might need to wait until the 00Z EURO tonight to make a final decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS like solution. Less QPF but it looks a lot colder. We're probably not far off from starting as SN on Saturday verbatim (maybe a bit too far south). And it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the brunt of the storm fell as PL rather than ZR.Its interesting how the latest models all trended cooler but similarly keep the brunt of the QPF to our south too. As we can see, alot of the ensembles dont agree with one another or the operational. I'd expect a bit more flip-flopping.It also shows the same thing for Friday too...LOL. Less snow and freezing rain but more sleet/ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The GEM has bounced around so bad...terrible performance (not that any model has done well) Actually the last few runs have been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I only glanced, but it looks like the NAM, verbatim, shows a significant icing event in Central Illinois. Or very close to it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 2nd wave way down in NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 12z UKMET takes the low to around CLE by 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Classic Louisville to Cleveland rain storm. Would really love to start seeing that ULL trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The key thing is marginal temps. Freezing Rain at 31-32F does not accumulate much on treated roads. It will make the tree nice an pretty but roads should be OK. Right now you should be OK. Your trip to Port Huron (I75 to I94) should be OK. The back roads from Port Huron to Lexington is when it could be more tricky IF we trend colder. When do you leave? Current plan is to leave at 5:00 pm or so on Saturday - scheduled to work tomorrow night... need time to get some ZZZZZs before hitting the road.... Just saw some maps showing ice in the northern suburbs of DTW... which makes me nervous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 12z UKMET takes the low to around CLE by 12z Sunday. Not too shabby for MO, IA, and then eventually WI...on the west side of the storm. Not a blockbuster, but I think that hasn't been the case for the most part recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 78 hr. Liking my chances of at least 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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