toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The NAM does not show an ice storm for toronto...it's at worst a minor glaze followed by a torch and heavy rain. The much talked about cold low level NE flow looks weak sauce, where as the WAA is impressive. It's the NAM. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 At least the nearly uninterrupted SSW 850s from the Gulf to Toronto is pretty cool...maybe we can break some temp records. I think we have chance to hit 60 here, if we can get rid of the snow in time. Melting pretty good today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 How do you know a true weather freak ... EPIC weather avoids them. I often feel like offering protection to towns in Tornado alley. Pay me live in your town and you won't see a Severe T-storm again btw...nice to see you posting here again Roy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 That solution is a ton of rain here. It looks like a lot of NE surface winds though until the low passes by. Even though it's torching at 850, it won't be torching at the surface with NE winds. It will may torch here briefly if the low does indeed travel west of here but I really wonder what the surface temps will be for most of the rain. This could be one nasty ice storm if the surface is cold enough. The thing is the surface isn't cold, it's right around freezing after a couple days above...it's a marginal ice setup at best. Especially when the mid level warm layer is going to be hella robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The NAM does not show an ice storm for toronto...it's at worst a minor glaze followed by a torch and heavy rain. The much talked about cold low level NE flow looks weak sauce, where as the WAA is impressive. Yep NAM take ice storm off the menu for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Got your ark ready? I wouldn't be totally surprised if the jackpot doesn't end up west of us. Seriously. At least the nearly uninterrupted SSW 850s from the Gulf to Toronto is pretty cool...maybe we can break some temp records. Parts of OH and IN that go rain free for a time have a chance. For YBY, no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 btw...nice to see you posting here again Roy. It's been a few years now (or whenever back on eastern). I am happy to be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 the ice is now for Montréal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think we have chance to hit 60 here, if we can get rid of the snow in time. Melting pretty good today! Very good chance at 60º or better. Snow will be all gone here by tomorrow at the latest. Torching today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I will be watching to see what the models do at 0z today...by then the speed max and low on the West coast should have decent sampling, but the Northern stream portion is still going to go largely unsampled...that is still going to wreak some havoc probably until Friday evening I'd guess. STL saying not until Saturday morning is certainly plausible too. Basically the snow threat is gone from Lansing-Chicago-Quincy-Tulsa OK and points to the East except for a bit of backend light stuff. However if the models guesses are wrong compared to what actually gets sampled this thing could shift 100 miles East or West still. I still expect some wild swings on this in the next 24 hours. These SW systems, which most of our big Winter storms are, are very fickle and usually hold some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Very good chance at 60º or better. Snow will be all gone by tomorrow at the latest. Torching today. Actually feels pretty nice outside for the first time in awhile (on a positive note). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 When you guess what data to put in....the results are nothing more than a best guess ... any solution portrayed by any model from today, yesterday, or 3 days ago may indeed verify... (luckbox)....otherwise, bring on the popcorn for another 36 hours.... The only obvious constant that is seen is plenty of moisture....other than that...where's the salt and butter?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Nice input Justin! MKX disco from this morning. Talks about zeroing in on the track today -probably. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUMPOTENT STORM SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR THE AREA THIS PERIOD. MODELVARIABILITY IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...MAKINGZEROING IN ON LOCATION OF HEAVY SNOW BAND LOW CONFIDENCE AT THISTIME. TAKING A CONSENSUS APPROACH THE HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL LINE UPWITHIN THE CWA BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER IT COULD BE IN SE WI (PER THENAM AND GFS) OR ACROSS THE NW CWA (PER THE ECMWF). 00Z ECMWF HASTHE WARMEST LOOK WITH THE 850 LOW CENTER TRACKING RIGHT ACROSSMILWAUKEE. THIS LOW TRACK FAVORS A LONGER PERIOD OF A MIX FOR THEEASTERN CWA WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE NW CWA.MEANWHILE THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE 850 LOW TRACKING JUST SOUTH OFCHICAGO. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER THICKNESSES ANDABV 0C 850 TEMPS WITH THIS LATTER SCENARIO THUS THE WINDOW FOR AMIX IS SMALLER AND WOULD COVER LESS REAL ESTATE THAN WHAT THEECMWF SUGGESTS. THE NAM AND GFS TRACK OF THE SURFACE/850 LOWSFAVOR THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS IN SE WI WITH LESS MIX AND THE OFTENMORE RELIABLE ECMWF AT THIS TIME RANGE FAVORS THE WESTERN ANDNORTHERN CWA FOR THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A LONGER MIXDURATION IN THE EAST. THE CIPS ANALOGS FAVOR THE ECMWF AS DOESSTRONG SIGNAL AND POSITIONING OF THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPERJET MAXIMUM FROM THE ECMWF/NAM. SO FAR NOW A GINGERLY NOD TO THEECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE BUT PRECARIOUS AT THE SAME TIME. HOPEFULLYTHE NEXT RUN OR TWO WILL ENABLE ZEROING IN ON THE LOCATION WITHMORE PRECISION WITHIN OUR CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Large swatch of flood watches and hydrologic outlooks issued already. Will probably see those watches extended into OH I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Large swatch of flood watches and hydrologic outlooks issued already. Will probably see those watches extended into OH I would think. SE MI too if the other models put 2-3" of QPF here like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I should be pretty locked into at least some snow, but it could be anything from 2-10". The 00z Euro moved the heaviest stuff to my nw, while the NAM and GFS favor the southeast third of Iowa. If the ultimate solution is more amped then the NAM and GFS should move nw. The 00z Euro doesn' t leave any wiggle room for Cedar Rapids as any further shift to the nw would really drop my snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I will be watching to see what the models do at 0z today...by then the speed max and low on the West coast should have decent sampling, but the Northern stream portion is still going to go largely unsampled...that is still going to wreak some havoc probably until Friday evening I'd guess. STL saying not until Saturday morning is certainly plausible too. Basically the snow threat is gone from Lansing-Chicago-Quincy-Tulsa OK and points to the East except for a bit of backend light stuff. However if the models guesses are wrong compared to what actually gets sampled this thing could shift 100 miles East or West still. I still expect some wild swings on this in the next 24 hours. These SW systems, which most of our big Winter storms are, are very fickle and usually hold some surprises. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 12z GFS is south and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 12z GFS looks like it may end up a bit colder than the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 No kidding about it being south. Over Lubbock on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 To make sure I understand, on the I75 corridor, if the low slides a little more east, then the chance for snow / ice increases, right? The models (from what you all have said, not my own interpretation - I am just learning this stuff) have gone from a lot of snow / ice on I75 / I94 to a lot of rain. The only "site" showing frozen precip for that area now is "weather.gov"... I want to see snow, just don't want to have to drive in it a lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 No kidding about it being south. Over Lubbock on this run. One couldn't help to notice that cute little 1030Mb HP just south of Hudson Bay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 At EVV by 66. At 6z it was over LAF valid the same time. Has actually gone the opposite direction of the NAM. Less interaction with that vorticity over the northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 One couldn't help to notice that cute little 1030Mb HP just south of Hudson Bay... Haha. No consistency yet... All up in the air imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Even though the "nw trend" was so 6 years ago, it always seemed the NAM led the way with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 To make sure I understand, on the I75 corridor, if the low slides a little more east, then the chance for snow / ice increases, right? The models (from what you all have said, not my own interpretation - I am just learning this stuff) have gone from a lot of snow / ice on I75 / I94 to a lot of rain. The only "site" showing frozen precip for that area now is "weather.gov"... I want to see snow, just don't want to have to drive in it a lot... How far north are you going? I75 will be rain at least until Toledo ... north of Toledo is still TBD ... currently it looks like Rain until I94 ... north I94 is when MIX (RN/ZR/IP) will be in play ... snow line is TBD ... right now snow looks to be north of Flint on I75. FYI ... Today's 12Z NAM is pretty much all rain until north of West Branch or so on I75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 At EVV by 66. At 6z it was over LAF valid the same time. Has actually gone the opposite direction of the NAM. Less interaction with that vorticity over the northern Plains. We're like a magnet with these types of storms. It's uncanny. Probably why our snow climo sucks. This run may give Alek some snow, so we'll probably need to toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 How far north are you going? I75 will be rain at least until Toledo ... north of Toledo is still TBD ... currently it looks like Rain until I94 ... north I94 is when MIX (RN/ZR/IP) will be in play ... snow line is TBD ... right now snow looks to be north of Flint on I75. FYI ... NAM is pretty much all rain until north of West Branch or so on I75. Port Huron, MI and then Lexington, MI... Other issue is timing - will likely be driving north of Toledo around 0200 or 0300 Sunday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 We're like a magnet with these types of storms. It's uncanny. Probably why our snow climo sucks. This run may give Alek some snow, so we'll probably need to toss it. or invoke the proximity of the dry slut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Congrats Cyclone to Alpena on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.