Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:00 AM, A-L-E-K said: just looking at 850/500, i don't see the GFS coming north..maybe slower/south? It's definetely colder here and across IA at 78hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:00 AM, A-L-E-K said: just looking at 850/500, i don't see the GFS coming north..maybe slower/south? agreed. northward creep on this run may be done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 longest 1002 mb contour in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 the late game clipper is coming in at a "better" time on the 00Z GFS ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS is south...I think this may be a new trend, I hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 999 mb between EVV and Louisville at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:08 AM, Ajdos said: GFS is south...I think this may be a new trend, I hope.... Regardless of path the GFS hasn't been as eager to throw heavier QPF into the cold sector in comparison to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Surface temps remain below freezing for much of the event in MI....save for maybe the southern row of counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:12 AM, Ajdos said: LOL, what's your first call? duh 0-trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:11 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Regardless of path the GFS hasn't been as eager to throw heavier QPF into the cold sector in comparison to the EURO. Well lets hope we get more cold air to work south, stronger high..you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:12 AM, Ajdos said: LOL, what's your first call? 4" IMBY (not final) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 998mb near Akron at 114 hours. Looks icy in southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 good run for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:12 AM, hm8 said: Surface temps remain below freezing for much of the event in MI....save for maybe the southern row of counties Several hours of ice then snow on top as a finisher. Very little rain except maybe Monroe and Lenawee Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:14 AM, A-L-E-K said: good run for ORD Looks to be all snow...But not much QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Guess i should start building my ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Glad to see things coming back south... Let the flip flopping continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:11 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Regardless of path the GFS hasn't been as eager to throw heavier QPF into the cold sector in comparison to the EURO. Agreed. Keep waiting for the GFS to show something really impressive but it's been somewhat tame run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:16 AM, Chicago Storm said: Looks to be all snow...But not much QPF. pretty easy to imagine how the QPF could be underdone. As long as we see the cold solutions pickup some support, i'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This GFS run is a real bummer for Iowa/Wisky. The storm in general isn't even very impressive. Hopefully, it's just garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 0z GGEM has a 993mb in N IN at hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:19 AM, Hoosier said: Agreed. Keep waiting for the GFS to show something really impressive but it's been somewhat tame run after run. I wonder which will blink first, I have to imagine the GFS does considering the amount of moisture and the flow coming all the way in from the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:25 AM, snowlover2 said: 0z GGEM has a 993mb in N IN at hour 108. That seems....kind of north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:25 AM, snowlover2 said: 0z GGEM has a 993mb in N IN at hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Notice the 1042 mb high on the GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:27 AM, snowstormcanuck said: That seems....kind of north? Yep its north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I think the GFS is probably not correct on moisture or strength of features looking at everything quite honestly.... just doesn't look right at all with the moisture this system will have available to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:22 AM, A-L-E-K said: pretty easy to imagine how the QPF could be underdone. As long as we see the cold solutions pickup some support, i'm happy. I'd think the Euro and NAM will handle the rapid cyclogenesis better if/when we get to that point too which could be playing a role on QPF amounts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The globals (including the 00Z GFS) are clearly trying to deal with the massive latent heat/convective processes going on with this system. The jumpy and strung out pressure pattern it is spitting out are a result of this. One needs to take a grain of salt with these tracks as a consequence. We can't realistically expect a model to be able to deal with this sort of thing accurately (especially at this time range). It's not uncommon for the convective parameterization scheme of a model to cause it to behave in this manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 On 12/18/2013 at 4:27 AM, snowstormcanuck said: That seems....kind of north? It looks maybe just a little north of what it had on the 12z run but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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