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December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Agreed.  Keep waiting for the GFS to show something really impressive but it's been somewhat tame run after run.

I wonder which will blink first, I have to imagine the GFS does considering the amount of moisture and the flow coming all the way in from the Caribbean.

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The globals (including the 00Z GFS) are clearly trying to deal with the massive latent heat/convective processes going on with this system. The jumpy and strung out pressure pattern it is spitting out are a result of this. One needs to take a grain of salt with these tracks as a consequence. We can't realistically expect a model to be able to deal with this sort of thing accurately (especially at this time range). It's not uncommon for the convective parameterization scheme of a model to cause it to behave in this manner.

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