weatherbo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 People are writing this off too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 EC calling for "Major ice storm" this weekend. Strong wording by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z DEC19 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 21-DEC -1.1 0.1 1017 85 44 0.00 558 544 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -0.9 1.7 1017 93 88 0.03 560 547 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -1.4 2.0 1009 94 100 0.48 559 552 SUN 12Z 22-DEC 0.5 5.3 1003 90 39 0.77 557 555 SUN 18Z 22-DEC 1.3 8.2 1001 95 58 0.07 553 552 MON 00Z 23-DEC 5.4 1.9 1003 80 21 0.04 551 548 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 EC calling for "Major ice storm" this weekend. Strong wording by them. NAM actually drops over 1/2 an inch of ice with wave tomorrow afternoon. It's warmer with the main event but kind of an outlier. Absolute worst outcome would be for both wave 1 and 2 to be primarily ice. Basically a mini version of 1998 right ioby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 3z SREF mean has 3.35" total precip through 18z Sunday for LAF. Two weenie runs of AOA 5.00". Lowest is 2.09". Long ways out to put total, or some, stock into the SREFs...but it's not like the heavy rain signal isn't there on other models. Oh, and there's one run that has 8.6" of snow through the end of the run. That one shall be hugged and embraced for all its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Oh, and there's one run that has 8.6" of snow through the end of the run. That one shall be hugged and embraced for all its worth. It's time to sit down with MBN3 and bribe it with a wealth of gold, women, and alcohol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just as much as it was foolish for weenies to post those screenshots of the Euro op runs back on Monday and saying that the 20" of snow was going to happen for sure for northern Illinois, it is probably foolish for people who live in the Chicago area, especially northern and western suburbs, to write this thing off yet. To that point, I think Alek depicts the sharp gradient in precip types quite well in his forecast above; yet, a shift of his forecast 50 miles southeast, minor but certainly plausible at this time, would give the northwest third of the LOT CWA an appreciable amount of snow (as opposed to very little). Of course, a shift 50 miles northwest gives all of the LOT CWA a nice slug of mainly rain. Also, what I say assumes that the models are faithfully depicting the dynamics of the cyclone. It's still about 72 h out, which is a while for a complex weather situation. Yes, I'm back in the area for Christmas, and I can say with some confidence that the weather will not be boring as it was when I was back for Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 People are writing this off too soon. EURO jumping ship crushed most hopes. If the 12Z runs shifts south I think interest will gain again but right now for many it is not looking good. In the last few days each time the 12Z comes there is a solid NW trend. Yes the 0Z & 6Z runs trend a bit southward BUT they are still further NW than their previous/respected runs. Sorry I don't look at the 18Z runs to know their trends. The Canadian has been the most stable lately with like 10 runs in a row of and Ice storm in southern MI but event it has trended NW. Northern fringe people still should have hope but something major needs to happen for places like DTW to have hope. Yes it is still possible but HISTORY is against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I don't think snow will be the big story anyhow even on the northern flanks of the storm. What worries me is the Ice depicted on the GEM PCPN Type charts over the last few runs. Also noticed the system passing to our north today and tomorrow has shifted a tad south too. Perhaps a trend to watch as the big system approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 EURO jumping ship crushed most hopes. If the 12Z runs shifts south I think interest will gain again but right now for many it is not looking good. In the last few days each time the 12Z comes there is a solid NW trend. Yes the 0Z & 6Z runs trend a bit southward BUT they are still further NW than their previous/respected runs. Sorry I don't look at the 18Z runs to know their trends. The Canadian has been the most stable lately with like 10 runs in a row of and Ice storm in southern MI but event it has trended NW. Northern fringe people still should have hope but something major needs to happen for places like DTW to have hope. Yes it is still possible but HISTORY is against us. it's not just the jump north, the whole thing is trending so disjointed and unorganized. The overall ceiling just feels much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah I'd rather have cirrus than rain.. although frankthetank is due for a good one and it will be good for their snowmobile trails. Meh tomorrow is a new day but not looking good.. go from barely in on the action to rain in 24 hrs lol. Happens often enough it seems, we have less margin for error with storms than NE cities that average half or 2/3s our annual snowfall, but we get our average somehow every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 it's not just the jump north, the whole thing is trending so disjointed and unorganized. The overall ceiling just feels much lower. Agreed! It has been on ugly system. As you know the Canadian model results are a destructive ice storm for many if it is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 it's not just the jump north, the whole thing is trending so disjointed and unorganized. The overall ceiling just feels much lower. That is true, but the Euro is still a heck of a lot better for a big storm than the other models, just not in most of our BYs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Agreed! It has been on ugly system. As you know the Canadian model results are a destructive ice storm for many if it is right! i'm not on board the ice storm bandwagon but haven't paid much attention to Canada. That is true, but the Euro is still a heck of a lot better for a big storm than the other models, just not in most of our BYs. meh, the euro is still pretty ugly and probably going to get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I don't think snow will be the big story anyhow even on the northern flanks of the storm. What worries me is the Ice depicted on the GEM PCPN Type charts over the last few runs. Also noticed the system passing to our north today and tomorrow has shifted a tad south too. Perhaps a trend to watch as the big system approaches. FWIW the GEM backed off a bit on ice potential on the 00Z run. Cut accums from 40+mm to about 25-30mm, so this will be another trend that needs to be watched, although that puts it well in line with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 i'm not on board the ice storm bandwagon but haven't paid much attention to Canada. My concern for ice is because of the Friday wave. It's departure maybe able to draw in some fresh low level cold air (especially with the widespread snow pack). My area is prone to ice storms as I have seen several over the years. If the NW trend continues the system dynamics will overcome it with some good ole plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Time for the NAM to to do what it does best...weenie out and show 12"+ from DSM to the UP. It's already warmer and further north with tomorrow's deal versus its 0z run. Not that it matters, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 i'm not on board the ice storm bandwagon but haven't paid much attention to Canada. meh, the euro is still pretty ugly and probably going to get worse. A foot for La Crosse? Still 6" for parts of SE Wisconsin? I'd have to check the text, but it actually may be a touch colder with 2m and 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Thread the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Time for the NAM to to do what it does best...weenie out and show 12"+ from DSM to the UP. It's already warmer and further north with tomorrow's deal versus its 0z run. Not that it matters, maybe. Looks like all the deep moisute is getting shunted way east. Consolation advisory snows well northwest with the detached 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 FWIW the GEM backed off a bit on ice potential on the 00Z run. Cut accums from 40+mm to about 25-30mm, so this will be another trend that needs to be watched, although that puts it well in line with the GFS. Doesn't matter that's still a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Doesn't matter that's still a major ice storm. I was thinking the same thing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 EURO jumping ship crushed most hopes. If the 12Z runs shifts south I think interest will gain again but right now for many it is not looking good. In the last few days each time the 12Z comes there is a solid NW trend. Yes the 0Z & 6Z runs trend a bit southward BUT they are still further NW than their previous/respected runs. Sorry I don't look at the 18Z runs to know their trends. The Canadian has been the most stable lately with like 10 runs in a row of and Ice storm in southern MI but event it has trended NW. Northern fringe people still should have hope but something major needs to happen for places like DTW to have hope. Yes it is still possible but HISTORY is against us. it's not just the jump north, the whole thing is trending so disjointed and unorganized. The overall ceiling just feels much lower. That's life without an ocean to your east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 12z NAM looks like it's going to be a full phase. Congrats GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 That's life without an ocean to your east. meh, obviously the east coast rules for big dogs but the lack of moisture isn't the problem, so i'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks like all the deep moisute is getting shunted way east. Consolation advisory snows well northwest with the detached 850 Double barrel. Out to 60 on e-wall. Gonna be nice for parts of MO, IA, WI, and MI...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Doesn't matter that's still a major ice storm. That wasn't really my point. I'm simply pointing out that this could be the start of a trend (maybe) and at least it's in the right direction. The GEM was nearly throwing out Jan 1998 ice storm solutions before this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Double barrel. Out to 60 on e-wall. Gonna be nice for parts of MO, IA, WI, and MI...I think. Got your ark ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NAM is way in the heck west. What a surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Congrats MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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