December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 2

[Harry]

rain and dryslut?      What a garbage December if this plays out..  Multiple Misses to Columbus, Ohio and now the token December Dubuque and Madison Maulers

 

 

I'll be honest.. I would rather Ohio get slammed then this outcome.

[Chicago Storm]

rain and dryslut?      What a garbage December if this plays out..  Multiple Misses to Columbus, Ohio and now the token December Dubuque and Madison Mauler

Look on the bright side...MKE has above normal seasonal snowfall up until this point.

[snowstormcanuck]

It includes the Friday system...But QPF for the weekend event is still around 1.35"...give or take.

 

Gotchya.

 

Widespread model agreement of AOA 1" of ice for YYZ. Major ugh although a part of me is obviously intrigued.

[Harry Perry]

Not I.. Why i have given up trying to figure what this thing will do. lol

Me too. This system is by far the most exciting I've watched in some time. Anything from 6" of snow, to 3/4" of ice to 2" of rain and temps near 40. Who knows.

[cyclone77]

I'll be honest.. I would rather Ohio get slammed then this outcome.

 

I'm actually the opposite.  I'd rather have a rainstorm/dry slot than watch another quality snow system miss southeast in December. 

[BowMeHunter]

I'll be honest.. I would rather Ohio get slammed then this outcome.

 

 

Yeah I'd rather have cirrus than rain..    although frankthetank is due for a good one and it will be good for their snowmobile trails.

 

Meh tomorrow is a new day but not looking good..    go from barely in on the action to rain in 24 hrs lol.

[Stebo]

I'm actually the opposite.  I'd rather have a rainstorm/dry slot than watch another quality snow system miss southeast in December. 

Same

[Harry Perry]

But something in the back of my mind is screaming "33 and rain". Can't figure out why.

Then on the other side is "better fill up the gas cans and park the truck under a tree". Can't quite figure that one out either.

[Harry]

I'm actually the opposite.  I'd rather have a rainstorm/dry slot than watch another quality snow system miss southeast in December. 

 

Who is to say it wouldn't be a quality snowstorm there if the cold was there? I'll never ever root for a rainstorm just before Christmas. With Ohio getting hit that means no rain here.

[snowstormcanuck]

I have seen a lot of talk about the influence of the lake for the lakeshore communities in the GTA. I had to go and double check the last ice storm we had which was in April and the winds were from the NE. Even along the immediate lakeshore where I am the trees were coated in light layer of ice and that was in mid April. One question though, how much colder do you think the lake is compared to mid april storm? Essentially what I am saying is that if I can see Ice in mid april along the lakeshore, I see no reason why the lakeshore is sparred this time around

 

Lake comes into play in marginal situations (say where surface temps are basically at 0.0). It might add the extra warmth to prevent glazing. When temps are solidly below freezing, I don' think it's a huge deal. And also, a NE (45 degree) wind is actually mostly off the land for Toronto and Mississauga.

[BowMeHunter]

Look on the bright side...MKE has above normal seasonal snowfall up until this point.

 

 

Meh its been all se michigan style stat padders.  O well at least it's looked like the part of winter here for the month...  can't say that for the last 2 decembers.

[Harry]

Yeah I'd rather have cirrus than rain..    although frankthetank is due for a good one and it will be good for their snowmobile trails.

 

Meh tomorrow is a new day but not looking good..    go from barely in on the action to rain in 24 hrs lol.

 

 

Away from Christmas i dont mind it because the lake can always throw a surprise or two as the flow typically goes more westerly with systems moving that far north. Really don't wanna have to rely on the lake for a White Christmas though..

 

Plus not like there will be any T-Storms around either. That would help some.. A cold rain does zero for me.

[mississaugasnow]

Lake comes into play in marginal situations (say where surface temps are basically at 0.0). It might add the extra warmth to prevent glazing. When temps are solidly below freezing, I don' think it's a huge deal. And also, a NE (45 degree) wind is actually mostly off the land for Toronto and Mississauga.

 

Well that explains it then, thanks for clearing that up. Im undecided at this moment whether to be excited for a major Ice Storm for the region. The part that intrigues me is I have never seen a legit Ice Storm in Mississauga, so this would be very interesting. 

[cyclone77]

Who is to say it wouldn't be a quality snowstorm there if the cold was there? I'll never ever root for a rainstorm just before Christmas. With Ohio getting hit that means no rain here

 

I was just stating that I don't want to get missed southeast again this month with another snow system.  In other words I'd rather have a snow eating rain here than another painful miss to the southeast.

[Harry]

Meh its been all se michigan style stat padders.  O well at least it's looked like the part of winter here for the month...  can't say that for the last 2 decembers.

 

 

Yep.. This Dec was a HUGE improvement from the past two.

 

I have had no expectations and taking the whatever happens happens route. Only complaint is i wish the euro people would pick a better time then right before or during winter to do a so called upgrade. lol

[Harry]

I was just stating that I don't want to get missed southeast again this month with another snow system.  In other words I'd rather have a snow eating rain here than another painful miss to the southeast.

 

 

I hear you. My beef is with it happening just before Christmas so other then that i agree. Usually events that miss to the south not only screw me that way but as well via the lake as the flow tends to be more northerly with those.

[BowMeHunter]

Yep.. This Dec was a HUGE improvement from the past two.

 

I have had no expectations and taking the whatever happens happens route. Only complaint is i wish the euro people would pick a better time then right before or during winter to do a so called upgrade. lol

 

Getting close to the old euro's "wheel house" but I can't take it too seriously like the past..   Hopefully some changes to come for the better tomorrow but, I can totally see how this can grinch even on this side of the lake.

[hm8]

I don't have any ice ice baby jokes left

[ryanthunder]

Blizzard > Ice storm > Clear > Plain rain

I have not seen a real blizzard in my lifespan. A couple years back, there was one that bordered on a blizzard, but I want one real blizzard before I die. Is that too much to ask for?

I suppose ultimately I'm hoping for some dramatic shifting in the forecast. I would go for a half-inch of ice and six to eight inches of snow if we can get a white out Sunday. Anything to avoid plain old rain.

[Harry]

Getting close to the old euro's "wheel house" but I can't take it too seriously like the past..   Hopefully some changes to come for the better tomorrow but, I can totally see how this can grinch even on this side of the lake.

 

While it may have improved at 500mb i have not seen much if any at the surface and i think it is worse now. How many times in the past have we ever seen the euro hold on to a solution like it ( 5 days?? ) did till yesterday and then pull this and inside 120hrs? Not the first system it has bungled either since the so called upgrade.

 

I hear you about tomorrow. Watch it end up in the UP.

[Stebo]

I don't have any ice ice baby jokes left

GGEM has had this ice solution for about what? 10 runs now?

[hm8]

I don't have any ice ice baby jokes left

GGEM has had this ice solution for about what? 10 runs now?

Scores for consistency at least in that regard... Something the other models have lacked.

I kinda liked it at the beginning since it was a nice middle ground between the Euro and GFS... Not so sure now.

On top of that, even if we get it cool enough at the surface for ZR, if it's proceeded and followed by rain and warmer temps... Will it really amount to much accretion?

And on top of on top of that... Even if we end up with all rain and flood.. Well then you have to worry about flash freezing anyways

[Harry]

GGEM has had this ice solution for about what? 10 runs now?

 

Did that model get one of those so called upgrades recently? I remember this being usually the first model to sniff out the ole nw trend.

[Stebo]

Did that model get one of those so called upgrades recently? I remember this being usually the first model to sniff out the ole nw trend.

Yes it did, I know it has within the last year.

 

Scores for consistency at least in that regard... Something the other models have lacked.

I kinda liked it at the beginning since it was a nice middle ground between the Euro and GFS... Not so sure now.

On top of that, even if we get it cool enough at the surface for ZR, if it's proceeded and followed by rain and warmer temps... Will it really amount to much accretion?

And on top of on top of that... Even if we end up with all rain and flood.. Well then you have to worry about flash freezing anyways

 

Yeah the flash freezing aspect hasn't really been visited but it is a very real problem that could potentially occur. I can remember a storm in December of 2010 I believe where it started as rain and switched to snow with a flash freeze occurring right after that, I-94 had issues 2 days after due to ice on the freeway.

[weatherbo]

APX

 

WILL SAY ITS NOT UNCOMMON FOR GUIDANCE
TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN THESE FAR SOUTH TRAVELING SOUTHERN CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOWS TOO QUICKLY...WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHERN WAVE EJECTING THROUGH THE AREA THAN MOST CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. FEEL REAL QUESTION TIED TO JUST HOW
MUCH/FAST NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION OCCURS. NORTHERN STREAM HAS
BEEN QUITE ENERGETIC SO FAR THIS WINTER...AND ALSO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR A DEEPER NORTHERN WAVE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT AN ALL SNOW SCENARIO WITH PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. NOT EVEN CONFIDENT IN THIS...AS STRONGER SOUTHERN
ENERGY INTERACTING WITH A FAVORABLY TIMED...AND DEEPER..NORTHERN
WAVE WOULD EASILY SUPPORT A FURTHER NORTHWEST STORM TRACK. GIVEN ALL
THE UNCERTAINTIES...SIMPLY WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY GENERIC
FORECAST...SPREADING SNOWS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS JUST YET...BUT A SWATH OF HALF
FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW EASILY ATTAINABLE GIVEN BREADTH OF GULF
MOISTURE SUPPLY. WARMER SOLUTIONS COULD EVEN BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH EVEN CURRENT SOLUTIONS BRINGING THAT THREAT
PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. NO DOUBT THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS HWO AND DAILY BRIEFING WORTHY...AND SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
COMING DAYS.
 

[hm8]

Dtx has been putting out some stellar AFDs lately

STRONG JET NOW DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL

DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTS OUT OF THE BASE

OF THE TROUGH AND TOWARD SOUTHERN MI BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE

LEADING ARM OF THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THAT

TIME BEFORE THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES THROUGH. THE GFS

AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM

AS IT WILL RIDE UP ALONG A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL HAVE

BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION SINCE THURSDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK TO THE NORTH...CHI TO SAG...WITH THE LOW

TRACK BUT THAT IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS HELD FAIRLY

FIRM FURTHER SOUTH...ADG TO PHN. THIS LITTLE DIFFERENCE WILL MAKE A

BIG IMPACT ON HOW THIS WINTER SYSTEM PLAYS OUT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE

HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN. THINGS SUCH AS...STRONG LOW/MID

LEVEL FGEN CREATED BY THE NORTHERLY COLD FLOW OF THE ANTICYCLONE

OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA FEEDING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ALSO

A STRONG AND DEEP LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS WARM MOIST AIR

PICKED UP FROM THE GOM RIDES UP AND OVER THE COLD SFC LAYER. AMOUNT

OF MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH VERY HIGH QPFS SATURDAY

NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES STEM FROM THE THERMAL

PROFILE DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE

BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM

N TO S ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO CONSTANT ADJUSTMENTS IN PTYPE

ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR THE NORTH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT

LEANING MORE TOWARD SNOW WITH SOME RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THE

SOUTH LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CREATE A

WARM LAYER ABOVE 0C FROM ABOUT 900-700MB ON AVERAGE. SOME MODELS THE

GFS GOT MUCH WARMER IN THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM ABOUT 2-3C NOW UP TO

ABOUT 7C. THE NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND OLD GFS WITH

THE PROFILE HUGGING THE 0C LINE MEANING ANY SMALL FLUCTUATION WILL

BRING NOTICEABLE CHANGES. IF THE NEW ECMWF HOLDS THE SOUTH MAY END

OF PREDOMINANTLY RAIN. AFTER THE INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTS

THROUGH...THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DRY OUT ALOFT WHICH WOULD MAKE

DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MORE PREVALENT.

[MadTown]

This thing is headed from la crosse to the UP at this point. Everyone gets rain

[A-L-E-K]

If it wasn't bad enough that this is a rain/dry slot event for MBY, the whole once promising monster system is looking like a run of the mill warm cutter with a narrow swath of 6-10". zzzzz city.

 

Way too Early Final Calls:

 

MBY: wintery mix on the leading WAA edge turning quickly to all rain followed by dry slot followed by .8" snow as the secondary defo scrapes by to the north.

 

Geos: see above change .8" to 2.8"

 

South of I88 LOT: wintery mix on the lead edge turning quickly to all rain followed by dry slot followed by some flurries blowing around (timchgo special)

 

DTW: zr is being overhyped and will top out around .25" in the few and far between jackpots (even that is probably way too bullish). 2m temps will be marginal and trend warmer. Mid-level warmth will overperform (especially that far east). A mostly rain event. Best zr will be around the IA/MO/IL border.

 

Cedar Rapids crew looks good for 6-10" as the subforum jackpot zone.

[Whitelakeroy]

Glad I didn't guarantee a White Christmas to anyone!!

[ilstormchaser]

IMBY (just east of Peoria) am thinking I get dry slotted with this thing as the heaviest snow hits far NW Missouri, East-Central Iowa, into South Central Wisconsin and going with 6-10 inches there with local amounts of 10-12 inches. Cities such as Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Madison getting hit with a nice white blanket. Not expecting much here maybe some freezing rain Saturday evening , then rain, followed by up to an inch of snow at the most on the backside.