Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks weird. It has a 1004mb low over Dayton at 0z Sunday...with another low sitting behind in TX. The TX low really isn't system related...and the Dayton low looks like a potential convective issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I don't like that 700mb low hanging that far back, over Sioux Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 00z GGEM has the low over central PA at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Anyways, GGEM ends up with a low in PA at 84 hours, but with some bagginess extending back west to northern IN. At that point, the wintry side is pretty lame looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hoping for rain for YYZ. Rain > ZR any day. I gave up on the chance for snow a while ago. The way things are going, you may get your wish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Look at 00z p-type accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 00z GGEM has the low over central PA at 12z Sunday. It's fishing without a pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Look at G00z GFS p-type accums Wow, that's a disaster. I admit I didn't look too closely at it but I was thinking we'd switch over to plain rain quicker on the GFS to avoid that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 About 9 hours of freezing rain for LAF on the GGEM, via the p-type maps, before it goes warm enough. Nice bubble of green over Alek's place, for the most part. Best climate! What a crappy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looking at the GEM is about enough to cause an acid flashback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It's fishing without a pole Agree. It's way too fast compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The models this evening have a common theme... weak structure in the cold sector and modest snow amounts at best. I wonder what the models saw this morning that caused them to amp this thing up so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The TX low really isn't system related...and the Dayton low looks like a potential convective issue. The GGEM actually split things up into two waves, thus you get the loose pressure signals and Dayton low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 About 9 hours of freezing rain for LAF on the GGEM, via the p-type maps, before it goes warm enough. Nice bubble of green over Alek's place for the most part. Best climate! What a crappy model. Even with the different evolution on this run, it's been consistently quicker bringing in precip and that is not uncommon in WAA situations. But even if the precip starts quicker, no guarantee that we'll be AOB freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Wow, that's a disaster. I admit I didn't look too closely at it but I was thinking we'd switch over to plain rain quicker on the GFS to avoid that. About 9 hours of freezing rain for LAF on the GGEM, via the p-type maps, before it goes warm enough. Nice bubble of green over Alek's place, for the most part. Best climate! What a crappy model. lol. The Canadian model often has a warm bias, as I've said before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 That amount of freezing rain would cause problems for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The models this evening have a common theme... weak structure in the cold sector and modest snow amounts at best. Yeah big dog snow potential overall seems to be crapping the bed with this one. Still could get a decent snow somewhere, but a big snow is looking unlikely at this point. Almost feels like we're tracking a storm in early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GGEM still adamant about it's ice storm idea. There's a joke here somewhere about Canadians and ice and hockey or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The models this evening have a common theme... weak structure in the cold sector and modest snow amounts at best. I wonder what the models saw this morning that caused them to amp this thing up so much. Our eager eyes most likely; they're attention whores! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS/GGEM want to turn the 401 into the Rideau Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 lol. The Canadian model often has a warm bias, as I've said before. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html The 0Z GGEM is all ice for the GTA with the rain staying south of us. Thats like how many runs in a row that it has showed an ice storm for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GGEM still adamant about it's ice storm idea. There's a joke here somewhere about Canadians and ice and hockey or something LOL, we Canadians love Hockey despite the Leafs losses of late GFS/GGEM want to turn the 401 into the Rideau Canal. LOL, awesome. Cant wait to play some ice hockey on the 401. Anyone want to partake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html The 0Z GGEM is all ice for the GTA with the rain staying south of us. Thats like how many runs in a row that it has showed an ice storm for us? I'd toss the GGEM because I'm not liking its synoptic evolution but even the GFS has widespread 1-1.5" of ice which is fooked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Even with the different evolution on this run, it's been consistently quicker bringing in precip and that is not uncommon in WAA situations. But even if the precip starts quicker, no guarantee that we'll be AOB freezing. Should be pretty minor if anything does happen here at all. But, it'd be nice to get a little "wintry" action before the washout begins I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Should be pretty minor if anything does happen here at all. But, it'd be nice to get a little "wintry" action before the washout begins I suppose. Can't wait to see the zr map...verbatim it's probably at least a half inch of ice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 So much for our 28hr straight sleetfest the 12z GEM showed lol. I think the models really have a heck of a time with these vorts that dig so deep into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Can't wait to see the zr map...verbatim it's probably at least a half inch of ice lol Haha, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html The 0Z GGEM is all ice for the GTA with the rain staying south of us. Thats like how many runs in a row that it has showed an ice storm for us? Yeah, i just saw that. The GGEM was taking forever to load for some reason. It looks like more ice pellets than freezing rain, as per this run. Looks similar to the early April 2003 pellet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just ran the 0z GFS through BUFKIT for YYZ. 1.29" of ice. And sfc temps during the event are not marginal at all. Generally -0.5 to -3.0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'd toss the GGEM because I'm not liking its synoptic evolution but even the GFS has widespread 1-1.5" of ice which is fooked up. Well that depends, as its been consistent on its ice storm picture for the GTA for many runs now. Other models have followed suite to its "icy" idea. If we can work in some CAD its possible, but away from the Lake IMO. This storm will be a nightmare for many of us in the end. The Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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